MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 10/4/22
Today is kind of a mess as there’s three doubleheaders but only game 2 of NYY/TEX is on DraftKings main slate so they will have a 9 gamer and FanDuel will have an 8 game main slate with none of the doubleheader games (one game less now on each slate with TOR/BAL PPD). We also have a lot of teams with nothing to play for as they’ve locked up their playoff seeding or they’re eliminated from the playoffs. This article is a good read if you want all the details on what’s at stake today and which teams have something to play for as those are the teams most likely to play their starters their usual innings. On the main slate today the Rays, Phillies, and Padres are teams still playing for wild card seeding.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
TOR/BAL was officially PPD around 5:25pm EST.
TBR/BOS will also be in the low 50s with 10mph winds blowing in and will also see some light showers at minimum so check back closer to lock but overall it’s a pretty ugly game for hitting weather if it does play.
The other four outdoor games will be in the 60s with not much wind and today’s dome games are ARI/MIL, NYY/TEX (DK only), and PHI/HOU.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for TB/BOS are -40.6% while total runs for TB/BOS are -13.4%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
We could see some really crazy starting lineups today as teams in the playoffs with nothing more to gain will be looking to rest anyone with any kind of soreness or injury to be at full strength for the games that matter while teams eliminated from the playoffs are looking to get younger guys more at bats or give some guys an early start to the offseason if they have any minor injury. Teams could also start their usual lineup but only give some guys a couple at bats like the Astros did yesterday so overall this is not your usual MLB DFS main slate and be prepared to make late swaps or lineup adjustments as we get more coach speak on player usage and potential weird starting lineups.
Lineup news we do know at the moment is that Will Smith will get today off and Austin Barnes will catch today while Justin Turner should return at DH and Trayce Thompson will be in the lineup along with the other regulars for LAD. Anthony Rendon returned from his suspension yesterday and should be in there again today for LAA but Vimael Machin went on the paternity list so someone else will play 3B for OAK today.
The Dodgers are the only team with a projected run total over 4.5 currently so they should be the most popular stack although there is some risk a few starters get pulled early. I also like the Padres as a stack as they have something to play for along with the Rays.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I like the cheap trio of Max Muncy ($2,800), Justin Turner ($2,900), and Gavin Lux ($2,700) while Trayce Thompson ($2,400) is another fine value option for LAD.
The Rays don’t have the greatest matchup against Eovaldi but should be playing to win and have a bunch of great value bats in Isaac Paredes ($2,700), Jonathan Aranda ($2,100), Ji-Man Choi ($2,000), Taylor Walls ($2,400), and Vidal Brujan ($2,000) while Wander Franco ($3,100) is also at a great price and one of my favorite plays today.
The Padres should also be trying to win and Manny Machado ($4,200) is my top target along with Josh Bell ($2,800), Wil Myers ($2,600), and Jurickson Profar ($3,200).
Looking at DraftKings I like starting with Trayce Thompson ($2,600) and Gavin Lux ($3,700) for LAD value along with Jurickson Profar ($3,900), Wil Myers ($2,600), and Josh Bell ($3,600) for SD value.
The Rays are still loaded with value as Choi, Aranda, Walls, and Brujan are all under $2,500 while Isaac Paredes ($3,800) is still very affordable and the Yankees have some nice value in Oswald Peraza ($2,500), Harrison Bader ($2,500), Jose Trevino ($2,900), Isiah Kiner-Falefa ($3,000), and Oswaldo Cabrera ($3,400).
Some other value bats to consider are Gavin Sheets ($2,500), Mark Payton ($2,200), Austin Slater ($2,600), Seth Brown ($2,600), Jordan Luplow ($2,500), and David Villar ($2,500).
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn