MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 9/29/22
FanDuel has a five game main slate starting at 7:40pm EST and DK is ignoring MIA/MIL and starting their four game slate at 9:38pm EST.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
OAK/LAA will be in the mid 70s with 5mph winds blowing out; LAD/SDP will be in the low 70s with a slight breeze out to right; COL/SFG will be in the low 60s with 10mph wind blowing out; MIA/MIL & TEX/SEA are in domes.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for LAD/SD are +8.2% while total runs for OAK/LAA are +3.3%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Jose Iglesias came off the IL yesterday for COL and Charlie Blackmon is done for the year with a torn meniscus while Brendan Rodgers is coming off the IL today and Connor Joe is going on it. Corey Seager will need another day with his bruised forearm and we’ll see if LaMonte Wade gets back in the Giants lineup after being absent from it the last two games vs. a righty. Mike Ford was optioned by the Angels yesterday so Duffy and Thaiss will handle 1B and Justin Turner will get the next few days off with shin soreness for LAD. The Marlins made a few moves with Avisail Garcia and Joey Wendle coming off the IL, Jesus Sanchez coming up from AAA, Jerar Encarnacion and Luke Williams going back to AAA, and Garrett Cooper heading to the IL.
The Giants and Dodgers are my top stacks today while the Angels, Mariners, and Brewers round out my top five.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m starting with Joc Pederson ($2,400) as he is way too cheap for this matchup and the way he’s swinging the bat with two triples and an HR over his last two games. Mike Yastrzemski ($2,800) is the next bat I’m locking in with the platoon advantage against Feltner while Thairo Estrada ($2,800), Wilmer Flores ($2,800), and JD Davis ($2,100) are all solid value plays if you want more SF exposure.
We’ll see who the Padres end up starting today as there’s still some uncertainty if they go with Darvish, Manaea, or a bullpen game but if it’s anyone not named Darvish then I’ll likely go with Will Smith ($3,200), Max Muncy ($3,100), and Chris Taylor ($2,000) in my main build.
Some other value bats in play for me today include Mike Brosseau ($2,200), Andrew McCutchen ($2,800), Brian Anderson ($2,000), Bryan De La Cruz ($2,500), Charles Leblanc ($2,000), Luis Rengifo ($2,600), Matt Duffy ($2,200), Jo Adell ($2,000), JP Crawford ($2,300), Jesse Winker ($2,400), and Jarred Kelenic ($2,300).
Looking at DraftKings I still like Joc Pederson ($5,100) even though he’s way more expensive compared to FD while Mike Yastrzemski ($3,800) is my favorite SF bat for the price. JD Davis ($3,200) is also still very affordable while Brandon Crawford ($3,700) is another cheap SF bat to consider.
Chris Taylor ($3,500) and Trayce Thompson ($2,500) are where’d I’d go for LAD value (if Darvish doesn’t start) while Matt Duffy ($2,300) and Jo Adell ($2,500) are a couple super cheap bats to consider for LAA.
TEX/SEA has some nice value as well with Josh Jung ($2,300) still crazy cheap with the platoon advantage today along with Mark Mathias ($2,500) and Sam Huff ($2,200) while JP Crawford ($3,000), Jesse Winker ($2,900), and Jarred Kelenic ($2,300) are the cheapest way to get SEA exposure.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn
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