MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 9/30/22
Massive main slate to end the week and month with FanDuel going with a 13-gamer and DraftKings going with a 14-gamer which includes game 2 of the PHI/WSH doubleheader (if the game plays).
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
FanDuel has no rain concerns while DraftKings could end up as a 13-game slate with PHI/WSH game 2 looking at rain pretty much all day and night so I wouldn’t plan on using anyone in that game.
Pretty much every outdoor game is looking at temps in the 60s or lower with KC/CLE and MIN/DET getting down to the mid 50s. The most impactful wind will be in NYM/ATL with 10mph out to center along with KC/CLE looking at 10mph in from right.
Dome games today include BOS/TOR, MIA/MIL, TBR/HOU, and OAK/SEA.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for BAL/NYY are -16.8% while total runs for PIT/STL are -20%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
DJ LeMahieu is on track to return from the IL today so we’ll see if he goes back to leadoff or if Judge remains there. Kerry Carpenter and Willi Castro are done for the year for DET along with Mickey Moniak for LAA as he went on the IL while David Fletcher came off the IL yesterday. The Mets are calling up top prospect Francisco Alvarez and he should start most days against lefties at DH or C and the Marlins will likely have Wendle, Garcia, and Sanchez in the lineup today as all we’re activated / promoted yesterday. Yordan Alvarez is hopeful to return today from his ankle injury and we’ll see if Corey Seager is able to play with his arm bruise that has cost him the last couple games. Justin Turner is likely still out for LAD and we’ll see if Randal Grichuk is able to return from his illness while recently activated Jose Iglesias and Brendan Rodgers should both be in there against the lefty Kershaw. Tommy Pham is getting a day off and Jarren Duran will hit leadoff for BOS.
The Dodgers have by far the highest team total of the slate at just over 5.5 runs and they are my favorite stack of the slate at home against the righty Kuhl in great weather with 10mph wind blowing out. The Yankees, Blue Jays, Angels, Cardinals, Mariners, and Padres are other stacks I like.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m starting with Will Smith ($3,100) and Max Muncy ($2,900) hitting in the heart of my favorite stack today at excellent prices while Trayce Thompson ($2,400) is a solid value play hitting 6th. Also at $2,200 is Gary Sanchez who will likely hit cleanup with the platoon advantage today on Alexander and is a nice value option to help fit some expensive bats.
The Blue Jays have a great cheap trio in Alejandro Kirk ($2,300), Teoscar Hernandez ($3,000), and Matt Chapman ($2,500) while the Mariners also have a nice cheap trio of Dylan Moore ($2,300), Mitch Haniger ($2,900), and Carlos Santana ($2,200). We’ll see where DJ LeMahieu ($2,600) hits in the order and he’ll be in play for me if he hits leadoff while Oswaldo Cabrera ($3,000) is my next favorite NYY bat for the price.
More FD value to consider today includes Jarren Duran ($2,000), Gunnar Henderson ($2,900), Jose Miranda ($2,700), Carlos Correa ($2,900), Lars Nootbaar ($2,500), Luis Rengifo ($2,500), Matt Thaiss ($2,200), and Gavin Lux ($2,100).
Looking at DraftKings I like starting with Josh Jung ($2,600) and Gary Sanchez ($3,000) as high upside value plays while Jose Miranda ($3,500) and Dylan Moore ($3,100) are super solid bats at great prices both likely hitting leadoff today. Freddie Freeman ($5,400) is my favorite Dodgers bat while Max Muncy ($4,800) and Trayce Thompson ($2,400) are definitely still in play.
Along with Jung I really like the stack of Marcus Semien ($4,500), Adolis Garcia ($4,200), and Mark Mathias ($2,800) all at great prices with the platoon advantage against a low strikeout lefty in Detmers who has allowed 4 ER in three of his last four starts. We’ll see who starts at C for TEX today but if it’s Sam Huff ($2,200) he is a great punt play at C with two HR’s over his last three starts.
Other bats I like for the price are Gunnar Henderson ($3,800), Oswaldo Cabrera ($3,100), Brendan Donovan ($3,600), Lars Nootbaar ($3,400), Matt Thaiss ($3,100), Carlos Santana ($2,600), Jurickson Profar ($3,700), Jarren Duran ($2,000), and Gavin Lux ($3,500).
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn