MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 4/11/2022
Now that the NBA regular season has concluded, I’m going to be doing a daily MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
It’s important to remember that MLB is much more volatile compared to NBA and even NFL, as the batter with the highest batting average facing the worst pitcher in the league can still go 0-for-4 while the 9-hole hitter with a .095 average could end up being the highest-scoring hitter of the slate.
What we want over a season of baseball is for the most likely outcomes to end up happening more often than not, which is all we can hope for based off historical data, while always knowing the day-to-day outcomes are just microcosms of those big averages and can swing way in our favor or the complete opposite way.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see in this article!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
Looking at games on the main slate (6:40PM EST and later) we should be safe as far as rainouts go while TOR/NYY has a very slight chance for a delay. Next we need to see how wind will affect the games as wind blowing in can make an average pitcher look great as more fly balls will stay in the park while wind blowing out makes both teams bats much more appealing as we should see more home runs. The Padres/Giants game will have winds blowing out to right-center at 24 MPH and although Oracle Park is built to minimize the impact of wind that’s still a pretty significant number compared to other games on the slate. Other games with wind blowing out to center are Mets/Phillies (~9 MPH), Mariners/Twins (~6 MPH), and Marlins/Angels (~11 MPH). There is slight wind blowing right to left in the Jays/Yankees game as well as Nationals/Braves while the A’s/Rays game is in a dome.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs in the SD/SF are +19.2% while total runs for SEA/MIN are +19%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
The Braves come in to today with the highest projected team total at over 5.4 runs against the Nationals starter Josh Rogers. Over the last three seasons Rogers has allowed a .432 wOBA and a .376 ISO to righties as seen in the amazing PlateIQ tool where you can see tons of stats from every pitcher-hitter matchup today. I like using at least two or three Braves in your main build today as Albies, Olson, Riley, Ozuna, and Duvall all have hard contact rates over 42% against lefties since 2019 with Ozuna leading that group in ISO against lefties at .326 and Albies leading in wOBA at .413.
Looking at the MLB Team Stats tool we can see that we have two of the top three teams in total HR’s this season going today with the Twins and Blue Jays so I’d be looking to get a couple guys from each team in your lineup depending on positional needs and their salaries on each site. Luis Arraez is an excellent value play on both sites hitting 3rd while Lourdes Gurriel is a cheaper option to get some Blue Jays exposure.
The Rays, Phillies, Angels, and Yankees are other stacks I like all playing at home with team totals of 4.5+.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel my favorite value play is the previously mentioned Luis Arraez at $2,400. He’s 2B and 3B eligible and hitting in the top half of one of the most potent offenses in baseball and for that price he is just too cheap for me to fade today especially since we can count on him putting the ball in play as he has just an 8.3% strikeout against righties since 2019. Marcell Ozuna is another name looking a bit too cheap at $3,000 hitting cleanup in a stacked Braves lineup projected to score a lot today along with Adam Duvall at $2,900 for a cheap mini-stack. Some other cheap mini-stacks to consider are Adam Frazier ($2,400) and Ty France ($2,700) for Seattle, Luke Voit ($2,700) and Wil Myers ($2,500) for San Diego, Ji-Man Choi ($2,400) and Josh Lowe ($2,600) for Tampa Bay, Lourdes Gurriel ($3,100) and Matt Chapman ($3,100) for Toronto, and lastly Nelson Cruz ($3,200) and Josh Bell ($2,800) for Washington.
I still like Marcell Ozuna on DraftKings at $3,800 along with Luis Arraez at $3,600 but Julio Rodriguez is probably my top value play on DK as he is still the minimum $2,000. He only has one hit in his first 12 at-bats but his ability and upside are just too high to have that kind of a salary. A couple other cheap bats I like on DK are Josh Lowe ($2,800), J.D. Davis ($3,000), and Austin Nola ($2,900).
Pitching is pretty weak overall today but I like the upside of Alek Manoah and the value of Dylan Bundy today on both sites.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getitng a day off and we learn their replacement as well as the ChangeLog which shows which projections were recently updated. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn