MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 4/20/2022
We have a 5-game main slate on DK and a 10-game main slate on FD today with a bit of rain to monitor in the Midwest area.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
It’s important to remember that MLB is much more volatile compared to NBA and even NFL, as the batter with the highest batting average facing the worst pitcher in the league can still go 0-for-4 while the 9-hole hitter with a .095 average could end up being the highest-scoring hitter of the slate.
What we want over a season of baseball is for the most likely outcomes to end up happening more often than not, which is all we can hope for based off historical data, while always knowing the day-to-day outcomes are just microcosms of those big averages and can swing way in our favor or the complete opposite way.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
BAL/OAK was moved 3+ hours earlier to avoid rain so that should mean they do everything possible to get that game in (on FD only). Moving to the Midwest we should see light showers in the NYY/DET game (FD only) which could cause a mid-game delay but overall this game is looking less than ideal for hitters with wind blowing 13 mph towards home. The biggest game to worry about is TBR/CHC which has a good shot at getting PPD with rain in the forecast all night. They might try to start it if the rain isn’t too heavy and hope it stays light but there is serious risk of it not ending if they do. 26 MPH winds from right to left as well makes this an ugly game overall and one I will fade unless the rain magically goes away. (This game was just moved back 70 minutes but I’m still avoiding it).
MIN/KC, SF/NYM, TOR/BOS, and ARI/WAS all have slight wind blowing out while STL/MIA, LAA/HOU and TEX/SEA are in domes.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for MIN/KCR are +18.7% while total runs for TOR/BOS are -7.3%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Toronto is looking like the top stack of the night with a 5+ team total going against Nick Pivetta and their big hitters have great history against him with Guerrero/Springer/Bichette a career combined 15-for-35. For the LAA/HOU game which is only on FD’s main slate Mike Trout remains out but this is still a very stackable team today against Jake Odorizzi who has been awful in two starts with 6 ER and just 3 total strikeouts. Another team I like stacking today is the Twins against the lefty Daniel Lynch who did have 7 K’s in his first start but also allowed 6 ER including 3 HR’s. Buxton is still rehabbing his knee but Polanco/Correa/Urshela/Garlick/Sanchez all make for great options today depending on your positional needs with Kyle Garlick one of my favorite value plays of the day at $2k on both sites.
Other offenses that I want a piece of or like as stacks in GPPs are Seattle, Boston, and on FD only I think BAL/OAK could be a sneaky shootout with pretty mediocre pitching on both sides.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel the Twins are standing out to me as underpriced and I will have at least 2-3 of them in my main build. Kyle Garlick will likely hit cleanup today and for $2k and likely plenty of RBI opportunities he is a great option to help fit in some other expensive bats along with Carlos Rodon who is over $10.5k but easily my favorite pitcher today. Jorge Polanco ($3,100) and Carlos Correa ($3,000) also have excellent prices and if you want the full stack choosing between Gio Urshela ($2,700) and Gary Sanchez ($2,700) will depend on your position needs. Another value bat who’s been creeping up in the batting order for Seattle is Julio Rodriguez who has moved from the 8 spot up to the 6 spot of late and had a big game yesterday with a hit, a walk, and 2 stolen bases. Jarred Kelenic is also in play likely hitting 7th for $2,400 coming off b2b solid games with over 15 FP in each. Some other value FD bats I like include Anthony Rendon ($3,000), Cedric Mullins ($3,000), Taylor Ward ($2,400), and Nicky Lopez ($2,400).
Looking at DraftKings Kyle Garlick is again a top value play at $2,000 along with Gio Urshela at $2,200 while Jorge Polanco ($4,000) and Carlos Correa ($4,900) are much more expensive than FD and aren’t priorities for me on DK. Julio Rodriguez ($2,900) and Jarred Kelenic ($3,300) have great prices and both are in play for me here too. Other DK names I’m considering are Daulton Varsho ($3,500), Pavin Smith ($2,900), Gary Sanchez ($2,800), and Bobby Witt ($2,700).
SFG/NYM is the game to target for pitching with just a 6.5 game total and two studs on both sides but I’m siding with Carlos Rodon as his K upside is a bit higher than Chris Bassitt but Bassitt makes for a great GPP option or you could go with both on DK. Alcantara and Ohtani are always solid options (FD only) while Merrill Kelly has a nice DK price ($8,000) and is yet to allow an ER in two starts with 13 total K’s.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getitng a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn