MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 5/9/2022
We have a 9-game main slate on DraftKings and a 7-game main slate on FanDuel and beautiful weather across the country, so no PPDs or doubleheaders today!
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
With no rain to worry about only wind will affect today’s games weather-wise with the biggest winds in CLE/CHW blowing in from right ~20mph. COL/SF will see ~12mph winds blowing out and TB/LAA will see ~7mph winds blowing out. LAD/PIT, MIL/CIN, OAK/DET, and CHC/SD all see slight breezes blowing in while PHI/SEA & MIA/ARI in domes.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for OAK/DET are -24.6% while total runs for CHC/SDP are -8.6%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Yoan Moncada is set to return for the White Sox and has a great price on FD at $2,800 while Ramon Laureano returned yesterday and should be the everyday leadoff man for the A’s and is a nice value play on FD at $2,600 while Piscotty won’t be in for a bit as he’s on the IL now.
On DK the Dodgers are my top stack against the lefty Quintana while the Brewers against Castillo are a solid GPP play for me there (both teams not on FD’s main). On FD my favorite stack is the White Sox against Plesac as only the Marlins have a higher team total currently and I really like the prices of guys like Anderson, Moncada, Abreu, Robert, and Grandal. Speaking of the Marlins they and the Diamondbacks are my next favorite stacks as both lineups are extremely cheap hitting in a dome against mediocre pitching while the Phillies, Padres, and Angels come in as my next favorite stacks.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel Yasmani Grandal ($2,400) and Yoan Moncada ($2,800) are my favorite value plays and if you want to go full CHW stack I like Tim Anderson ($3,600) and Luis Robert ($3,600) who both offer HR and SB upside and Robert is hitting .538 in 13 career AB’s against Plesac. Ramon Laureano is also in that category of power and speed upside that I love and for $2,600 he will definitely be in my main build if he continues to hit leadoff. I really like a mini-stack of Daulton Varsho ($3,100), Pavin Smith ($2,900), and David Peralta ($2,400) with the platoon advantage today likely hitting 1-3 while Josh Rojas for $2,000 is a fine extreme salary saver for ARI too. Other bats I’m liking for the price on FD include Brandon Lowe ($3,300), Manuel Margot ($3,000), Randy Arozarena ($2,700), Anthony Rendon ($3,200), Jorge Soler ($3,000), Austin Slater ($2,400), and Mauricio Dubon ($2,000).
Looking at DraftKings the White Sox are priced up a bit compared to FD but I still really like the price of Yoan Moncada at $3,900 and Luis Robert at $4,700. Justin Turner and Chris Taylor are my favorite Dodgers for the price with both under $4,300 and ARI is still super cheap on DK with Varsho, Smith, Peralta, Walker, and Rojas all under $3,900 while Aguilar, Soler, Wendle, and Cooper are my favorite Marlins to stack for the price. Other DK bats I’m considering include Manuel Margot ($2,900), Randy Arozarena ($3,800), Alec Bohm ($3,400), Austin Slater ($2,900), and Mauricio Dubon ($2,300).
Carlos Rodon is the clear SP1 on both sites today at home against a Rockies team currently with a 2.4 team total while Brandon Woodruff isn’t on FD’s main but on DK for $9,300 he will be my SP2 with Rodon in a great matchup with the Reds. For GPP’s I really like Austin Gomber on DK for just $6,600 as he has 6+ strikeouts and 2 ER or less in each of his last three starts and for even cheaper I think Chris Flexen ($5,300) is a fine play at home against the Phillies with 3 or less ER in all of his starts this year.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn