MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 7/27/22
Just five games on today’s main slate with a couple low-risk rain spots to monitor.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
TBR/BAL should have a solid window to play with a chance of rain towards the end of the game while MIA/CIN & NYY/NYM have spotty storms in the general area but shouldn’t impact the games.
Every outdoor game will be around 75-85 degrees and the lone dome game is STL/TOR.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for TBR/BAL are +23.4% while total runs for NYY/NYM are +14.6%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
The Cardinals remain without the unvaccinated Arenado and Goldschmidt while the Red Sox remain without Devers and Story on the IL and the Rays lost Mejia to the IL yesterday so Bethancourt and Pinto will handle C duties for now. Garrett Cooper also landed on the IL yesterday so Lewin Diaz should get solid playing time at 1B.
The Blue Jays are again my top stack as they just have by far the most talented lineup of this slate with a team total around 5 currently and although they face the solid Wainwright he’s still been a pretty low strikeout guy in most of his starts and is coming off a 7 ER outing against CIN in his last start. The Red Sox and Rays are my next favorite stacks facing mediocre righties while the Orioles, Mets and Guardians are other GPP stack options worth taking a shot on.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel the Red Sox have a couple great value options in Jarren Duran ($2,500) and Alex Verdugo ($2,400) along with Franchy Cordero ($2,200) while Xander Bogaerts ($2,900) is the cheapest he’s been all season. Alejandro Kirk ($3,400) and Bo Bichette ($3,400) are my favorite TOR bats for the price but I’d try getting in at least one of George Springer ($3,800) or Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($3,900) too. Brandon Lowe ($3,000) is still way too cheap and is easily my favorite play at 2B while Diaz ($2,900), Arozarena ($3,100), and Paredes ($2,600) are all strong value options for the Rays. More FD bats I like for the price include Jonathan India ($3,000), Tommy Pham ($2,800), Brandon Nimmo ($2,8000, Jeff McNeil ($2,400), Cavan Biggio ($2,400), Franmil Reyes ($2,300), and Trey Mancini ($2,500).
Looking at DraftKings Duran ($3,400) and Verdugo ($3,700) remain solid plays but Franchy Cordero ($2,300) is my favorite BOS bat for the price and for TOR my first priority is Guerrero ($5,200) while Teoscar Hernandez is my next favorite bat at just $4,500 while Cavan Biggio is a top value play at just $2,300. Eovaldi has been pretty bad over his couple starts so I don’t mind taking some CLE value bats in Steven Kwan ($3,700), Franmil Reyes ($3,300), or Nolan Jones ($2,300). Some other cheap DK bats to consider are Trey Mancini ($2,700), Ryan Mountcastle ($2,900), JiMan Choi ($3,400), and Daniel Vogelbach ($3,700).
Max Scherzer is my SP1 on both sites as I think he dominates on his birthday in his first subway series while Braxton Garrett is my favorite cheap option on FD at $8.2k. On DK it’s so close between Gausman and Castillo for SP2 but I think Castillo gets the slight edge for me as he’s a bit cheaper, is facing a weaker lineup, and has a higher pitch count ceiling.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn