MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 8/16/22
13 games on today’s main slate with one of the best pitching matchups of the year between the only two SPs in the AL with ERAs under 2.00 and we should be safe as far as rain goes with just a couple potential delays.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
BOS/PIT & DET/CLE might have late-starts but both games should get in fine along with every other game today and the only game with temps above 80 degrees is NYM/ATL which will also have 6-9mph winds blowing out. The dome games today are LAD/MIL, OAK/TEX, and BAL/TOR.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for CHC/WSH are +17.5% while total runs for HOU/CHW are +15.3%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
The Red Sox will get Enrique Hernandez back from the IL and he will start SS with Bogaerts getting a day off while Luis Guillorme is headed to the IL so McNeil, Escobar, and Marrero will get most of the 2B/3B starts for the Mets and Hayes is going on the IL for PIT. There’s a slim chance DJ LeMahieu can play today but it sounds like he’ll need at least another game with his toe inflammation and I wouldn’t expect to see Josh Naylor for CLE today as he left early with ankle soreness yesterday. Eddie Rosario also exited early yesterday with hamstring tightness so he’ll likely need some time off with Grossman his most likely replacement against righties and David Fletcher will play today after taking a foul ball off his foot yesterday. Ramon Laureano just landed on the IL and I wouldn’t expect to see Ketel Marte today with his hamstring injury and depending on how Luis Robert feels today after his workout yesterday will determine if he is able to return to the lineup for the White Sox.
Toronto disappointed with only 3 runs yesterday but I’m going back to them as my top stack today against the righty Kremer who has been a reverse-splits pitcher in his career with a .304 career average allowed to righties and we know TOR is one of the most righty heavy lineups in baseball. My next favorite stack is the Cubs against the lefty Corbin who has been really bad over his last six starts having allowed 4-6 ER in each of those starts including two games where he didn’t make it out of the 1st inning. The Cardinals are my 3rd favorite stack at home against the lefty Freeland who they blasted for 6 ER in his last start and the Guardians round out my top stacks at home against the low strikeout righty Hill. Other stacks I don’t mind taking shots on are NYY, BOS, ATL, TEX, and MIL.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for today’s confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I have to start with Marcus Semien as his price is still at $2,400 even after hitting an HR yesterday and being $3.3k just two days ago so this might be the last day we can get him at this price. For Toronto Alejandro Kirk is the cheapest bat I would target while Lourdes Gurriel ($3,000), Matt Chapman ($3,200), and Bo Bichette ($3,300) are the next cheapest to target between Guerrero, Springer, and Hernandez in the higher price range I’d prioritize them in the order I put them in. The Cubs have some of the best value of the day and I’d expect to see most cash game and single entry lineups with 3-4 of their bats with Nick Madrigal ($2,600), Patrick Wisdom ($2,900), Seiya Suzuki ($2,900), and Franmil Reyes ($2,700) all excellent value plays and Willson Contreras ($3,500) might even be contrarian today with ownership going towards the cheaper options. The Cardinals also have strong value bats in Tyler ONeill ($3,000), Dylan Carlson ($2,800), and Albert Pujols ($2,300) while Goldschmidt and Arenado are two of the highest upside plays of the day with the platoon advantage on Freeland. More bats I like on FD for the price include Josh Donaldson ($2,500), Cal Stevenson ($2,100), Rowdy Tellez ($3,100), Emmanuel Rivera ($2,000), and LaMonte Wade ($2,200).
Looking at DraftKings I’m starting with Cubs first for value in Nick Madrigal ($2,500) and Franmil Reyes ($2,800) who are both way too cheap for this good of a matchup and at 1B I will almost certainly use either Albert Pujols ($2,200) or Vinnie Pasquantino ($2,100) for extreme savings. I also really like Cal Stevenson ($2,000) for extreme value likely hitting leadoff again today and although he’s not as cheap I still like LaMonte Wade ($2,700) coming off b2b HR games. I still really like Kirk ($4,500), Gurriel ($4,200), Chapman ($4,500), Suzuki ($4,500), and Semien ($4,100) for a bit more expensive options while some other value bats I’m considering are Alex Verdugo ($3,000), Michael Massey ($2,000), Victor Reyes ($2,000), Emmanuel Rivera ($2,500), Ezequiel Duran ($2,300), and Mike Yastrzemski ($3,300).
We have some elite pitching to choose from today between Verlander, Cease, Ray, Manoah, Woodruff, and Cortes and too many great options in a tier below them to list. On FanDuel I’m still deciding between Verlander, Cease, and Ray but I’m strongly considering going with Ray as he’s the cheapest and gets the Angels who he just dominated two starts ago. On DraftKings Ray is a bit too cheap at $9.5k so he’ll be one of my main SPs and there’s plenty of value to pair him with either Verlander, Cease, or Cortes. Cheaper SPs on both sites that I like in GPPs are Morton, Gray, Quintana, Suarez, and Plesac and on DK I really like Justin Steele for $6,200.
Keep checking LineupHQ, as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections, change based on the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn