MLB Grind Down: Friday, July 11th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-07-11 21:03:35

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland

Chicago White Sox					Cleveland
Hector Noesi		Vegas Moneyline			Corey Kluber		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		CLE (-200)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.267	0.744	0.333	17.9%	SP vs. Left	0.273	0.748	0.333	23.7%
SP vs. Right	0.335	0.909	0.399	16.9%	SP vs. Right	0.247	0.624	0.282	24.9%
Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CHW vs R		Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Hector Noesi – What’s up Grinders, we have an extremely full slate of games tonight so we’ll try to keep the analysis for each short and simple. Noesi has pitched better this season, but he hasn’t exactly set the bar very high for himself. While he’s held LH hitters in check this year, he gave up a .403 wOBA to LH hitters last season. That doesn’t bode well for his matchup against the Indians. It also doesn’t help that he’s one of the biggest underdogs on the board. Rating = 3

Salaries: $6300 FD, $9595 DS, $9550 DD, $5900 DK, $57100 FF, $13400 SS, $9550 FTD

• Corey Kluber – Kluber makes a terrific play tonight. He’s really pitched well at home this season with a 2.74 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP while striking out 75 batters in only 65 innings of work. If he can pitch around Jose Abreu, he should be in for another stellar fantasy outing tonight. Rating = 8

Salaries: $9100 FD, $20400 DS, $17150 DD, $9200 DK, $130400 FF, $28400 SS, $17150 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Jose Abreu – Cluber gives up a higher wOBA to LH hitters than he does to RH hitters, but Abreu is the only White Sox bat that I’m going to have any exposure to. And even with Abreu, he’s a better GPP option than a cash game play.

Additional Plays: None

Cleveland

Jason Kipnis – Kipnis’ fantasy value has gone up with him batting leadoff. He’s been extremely aggressive on the bases. He’s stolen 5 bases in the last 2 games. I also like the matchup against Noesi who as I mentioned, has historically struggled vs. LH hitters.

Additional Plays: Carlos Santana, Lonnie Chisenhall

NY Yankees at Baltimore

NY Yankees					Baltimore
Hiroki Kuroda		Vegas Moneyline			Miguel Gonzalez		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		BAL (-114)			RIGHT		9.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.262	0.734	0.323	16.1%	SP vs. Left	0.259	0.740	0.331	17.0%
SP vs. Right	0.246	0.640	0.285	19.7%	SP vs. Right	0.255	0.754	0.334	17.3%
Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R		Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Hiroki Kuroda – Kuroda continues to be a serviceable starter for the Yankees, but his numbers across the board are worse than they have been over the last few seasons. Tonight he draws a tough matchup against the Orioles who are ranked 6th against RH pitching with a team .326 wOBA. This should be a high scoring game and you can safely avoid both starters. Rating = 4

Salaries: $7100 FD, $12846 DS, $12600 DD, $7200 DK, $83000 FF, $18800 SS, $12600 FTD

• Miguel Gonzalez – Gonzalez has pitched pretty well at home this season, but he has an average K-rate and a mediocre ERA and WHIP. Tonight he faces a Yankees’ offense that has been much better over the last week or so. Both of these pitchers will likely give up a few runs and both can be ignored for our purposes. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5800 FD, $11454 DS, $11200 DD, $5800 DK, $64300 FF, $13900 SS, $11200 FTD

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Mark Teixeira – Most of Teix’s power this season has come from the left side of the plate. In fact, 16 of his 17 HR’s have come off of RH pitching. If you read the MLB First Look, he’s my odds on favorite to homer tonight. Plus his price is pretty cheap across the industry.

Additional Plays: Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner

Baltimore

Chris Davis – Davis has looked lost at the plate for a better part of 3 weeks, but he draws a nice matchup against Kuroda whom he has had some success against in the past. Davis is extremely cheap right now and should be able to pay off his salary.

Additional Plays: Nick Markakis, Nelson Cruz

Washington at Philadelphia

Washington					Philadelphia
Jordan Zimmermann		Vegas Moneyline			A.J. Burnett		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		WAS (-133)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.261	0.683	0.301	17.3%	SP vs. Left	0.255	0.728	0.341	19.9%
SP vs. Right	0.232	0.609	0.277	21.9%	SP vs. Right	0.221	0.584	0.262	26.6%
Batter Splits	WSN BvP		WSN vs R		Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jordan Zimmermann – In his last 7 starts Zimmermann has struck out a combined 46 batters while only giving up 7 earned runs. He’s in top form and has a terrific matchup against the Phillies tonight. The Phils are ranked 29th against RH pitching this season with a 21% K-rate. Expect another solid outing from Zimmermann. Rating = 8

Salaries: $8800 FD, $18954 DS, $16000 DD, $10500 DK, $97600 FF, $28000 SS, $16000 FTD

• A.J. Burnett – With Burnett, you know that he’s going to give up a few runs, his fantasy value lies in his ability to strike batters out. He’s struck out 25 batters over his last 3 starts. While I think there are better options in cash games, I do like the upside that he provides as a tournament play. Rating = 6

Salaries: $7500 FD, $15827 DS, $14100 DD, $8100 DK, $82200 FF, $22500 SS, $14100 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Adam LaRoche – LaRoche has the splits in his favor (Burnett has given up a .341 wOBA to LH hitters since the start of 2013) and he also has a nice track record against Burnett (11/28 with 6 XBH’s).

Additional Plays: Anthony Rendon

Philadelphia

With the way Zimmermann is pitching right now, I’ll be avoiding all Phillies’ hitters tonight.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

Pittsburgh					Cincinnati
Jeff Locke		Vegas Moneyline			Mat Latos		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		CIN (-120)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.264	0.645	0.308	11.4%	SP vs. Left	0.239	0.661	0.297	18.5%
SP vs. Right	0.230	0.652	0.296	18.9%	SP vs. Right	0.237	0.602	0.279	22.0%
Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs R		Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jeff Locke – Locke has pitched well this season with a 3.08 ERA and a WHIP under 1.00, but I’m not 100% sold yet. While the matchup against the Reds is a favorable one (Reds are ranked 27th in wOBA against LH pitching), I see him as a deep tournament play. Rating = 5

Salaries: $5800 FD, $13621 DS, $13400 DD, $8200 DK, $82700 FF, $22300 SS, $13400 FTD

• Mat Latos – Latos has been impressive in his first 5 starts this season. He’s posted a 2.41 ERA, but his K’s are down due to a slightly diminished velocity from that of last season. The Pirates are a tough team offensively and even though he’s the favorite in a game that features a low run total, I think his upside is fairly limited. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7900 FD, $16721 DS, $14850 DD, $9400 DK, $108200 FF, $25700 SS, $14850 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Andrew McCutchen – I always like targeting players that can score fantasy points in multiple ways. Cutch has nice speed and good power in his bat. He’s hit 2 HR’s off of Latos in his career and makes a nice play in the OF tonight.

Additional Plays: Neil Walker

Cincinnati

Todd Frazier – Frazier is a sneaky play at 3B tonight. He has a .373 wOBA vs. LH pitching this season and has a nice combination of both speed (13 SB’s) and power (17 HR’s).

Additional Plays: Devin Mesoraco

Toronto at Tampa Bay

Toronto					Tampa Bay
Mark Buehrle		Vegas Moneyline			Chris Archer		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		TBR (-130)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.256	0.700	0.319	14.0%	SP vs. Left	0.238	0.693	0.315	20.0%
SP vs. Right	0.275	0.734	0.325	15.6%	SP vs. Right	0.229	0.572	0.266	19.7%
Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs R		Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TBR vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Mark Buehrle – Buehrle’s peripheral stats don’t look quite as good as his shiny 2.60 ERA, but he’s still been a terrific pitcher this season. His K-rate leaves a little to be desired (5.2 per 9 innings), but he’s been terrific on the road and draws a decent matchup against the Rays tonight who he’s already shut down 2 times this season. Rating = 6

Salaries: $7600 FD, $13395 DS, $14200 DD, $6400 DK, $80000 FF, $18400 SS, $14200 FTD

• Chris Archer – Archer is an interesting play tonight. He’s really turned things around over his last 10 starts and owns a 2.59 ERA at home this season. He’s also learned how to pitch against LH hitters which was one of the biggest weaknesses in his game. His price may take him out of cash game consideration, but I like the matchup against the Blue Jays who are a much different team offensively when they are on the road. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $8000 FD, $14555 DS, $15000 DD, $8700 DK, $96200 FF, $ SS, $15000 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

There aren’t any options that stand out on the Blue Jays tonight. Jose Reyes has been good of late, but I’d rather pay up for Tulo or save some salary cap space with a value SS.

Tampa Bay

Evan Longoria – Longo has faced Buehrle quite a few times in his career. He’s 10/31 with 3 XBH’s off of him. While those don’t necessarily jump off the page at you, Longo is cheap and owns a .404 wOBA vs. LH pitching this season.

Additional Plays: Sean Rodriguez

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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