MLB Grind Down: Friday, July 4th Page Three

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-07-04 14:25:22

Texas at NY Mets

Texas					NY Mets
Yu Darvish		Vegas Moneyline			Jonathon Niese		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		NYM (-130)			LEFT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.224	0.659	0.299	28.8%	SP vs. Left	0.242	0.629	0.286	18.0%
SP vs. Right	0.175	0.524	0.243	36.7%	SP vs. Right	0.274	0.717	0.323	16.8%
Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs L		Batter Splits	NYM BvP		NYM vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Yu Darvish – Darvish was scheduled to start last night, but with the potential rain delays, the Rangers decided to hold him back and let him start tonight instead. I think it was the right move, at least from a daily fantasy perspective. Now he gets to face the Mets rather than the Orioles. Darvish has one of the best K-rates in baseball and is right up there with Sale as the top pitcher available. Rating = 9

Salaries: $11800 FD, $NA DS, $NA DD, $12200 DK, $137100 FF, $31000 SS, $20700 FTD

• Jonathon Niese – Niese should be avoided in all leagues. Not only has he been pitching over his head if you look at the peripheral pitching stats, but he’s facing a Rangers’ offense that is ranked 6th against LH pitching this season. Run support may also be an issue. Rating = 3

Salaries: $7500 FD, $ DS, $ DD, $7600 DK, $85800 FF, $19800 SS, $13000 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Alex Rios – Rios should be one of the more popular outfield plays tonight and for good reason. His price is way down across the industry and he has a .469 wOBA against LH pitching this season.

Additional Plays: Adrian Beltre

NY Mets

Avoid all Mets against Darvish.

Miami at St. Louis

Miami					St. Louis
Nathan Eovaldi		Vegas Moneyline			Lance Lynn		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		STL (-150)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.279	0.748	0.339	15.9%	SP vs. Left	0.254	0.733	0.333	18.1%
SP vs. Right	0.238	0.638	0.285	20.2%	SP vs. Right	0.246	0.631	0.289	25.9%
Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs R		Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Nathan Eovaldi – The curious case of Nathan Eovaldi. He has terrific velocity, yet he’s only averaging 6.7 K’s per 9 innings. While that’s certainly respectable, he hasn’t topped 3 K’s in any of his last 4 starts. The matchup against the Cardinals helps, but I think there are better options in his price range. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6500 FD, $NA DS, $NA DD, $6700 DK, $62600 FF, $17600 SS, $13100 FTD

• Lance Lynn – I’ve been burned by Lynn on a few occasions already this season and it may happen again tonight. I love the matchup against the Marlins who strike out more than any team in baseball. I also like that this game will be played at home where Lynn has really pitched well throughout his career. Rating = 7

Salaries: $7400 FD, $ DS, $ DD, $8800 DK, $99700 FF, $20200 SS, $14950 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Miami

I don’t mind Giancarlo Stanton and Jarrod Saltalamacchia as GPP plays, but will be avoiding all Marlins in cash games.

St. Louis

Matt Adams – Since the start of last season, Eovaldi has given up a .339 wOBA to LHB’s. Adams has really hit RH pitching well and offers great value at a position that is full of expensive options.

Additional Plays: Matt Carpenter

Arizona at Atlanta

Arizona					Atlanta
Josh Collmenter		Vegas Moneyline			Ervin Santana		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		ATL (-150)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.278	0.711	0.328	17.7%	SP vs. Left	0.267	0.736	0.327	16.8%
SP vs. Right	0.215	0.644	0.290	19.4%	SP vs. Right	0.224	0.628	0.282	22.5%
Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs R		Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Josh Collmenter – Collmenter should only be targeted under very favorable circumstances. On the road against a powerful Braves’ lineup is not one of them. Avoid him in all leagues. Rating = 3

Salaries: $6900 FD, $NA DS, $NA DD, $5800 DK, $82700 FF, $14400 SS, $11300 FTD

• Ervin Santana – Santana’s production has sure taken a slide since the beginning of the season. He’s been giving up way too many hits and I think this could be a sneaky spot to target some D-Backs’ hitters. Rating = 4

Salaries: $8200 FD, $ DS, $ DD, $7700 DK, $88800 FF, $20200 SS, $14100 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Paul Goldschmidt – Goldschmidt is typically targeted when he faces LH pitching, but he has been very good against RH pitching as well. Don’t be afraid to use him tonight against Santana.

Additional Plays: Miguel Montero

Atlanta

Jason Heyward – Freeman always seems to struggle when he is the highlighted play, so we will take the pressure off of him by highlighting Heyward instead. Collmenter has given up a .328 wOBA to LHB’s and Heyward should see plenty of RBI chances.

Additional Plays: Freddie Freeman

LA Dodgers at Colorado

LA Dodgers					Colorado
Clayton Kershaw		Vegas Moneyline			Jair Jurrjens		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		LAD (-165)			RIGHT		9.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.154	0.424	0.196	39.2%	SP vs. Left	0.294	1.039	0.438	16.7%
SP vs. Right	0.210	0.553	0.249	24.7%	SP vs. Right	0.308	0.846	0.362	23.1%
Batter Splits	LAD BvP		LAD vs R		Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Clayton Kershaw – If there weren’t two other great aces on the mound tonight in Sale and Darvish, it would be much harder to avoid Kershaw. That said, I think he’s an easy avoid tonight in cash games as he faces the Rockies in Coors Field. I do however, think he makes a great GPP play. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $12000 FD, $NA DS, $23050 DD, $13100 DK, $170000 FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Jair Jurrjens – Jurrjens will be called up for a spot start tonight against the Dodgers. He was a fantastic big league pitcher a few years ago, but has since fallen off the map. I don’t expect this outing to end well for Jurrjens. Rating = 2

*Salaries: *

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Adrian Gonzalez – The Dodgers are the top offense to target tonight. Don’t be afraid to get quite a few of them in your lineups, even in cash games. I like both LHB’s and RHB’s here, but A-Gon takes the cake as the top play.

Additional Plays: Dee Gordon, Matt Kemp, Juan Uribe

Colorado

Troy Tulowitzki – Call me crazy, but I actually think Tulo makes a nice play tonight. He’ll go overlooked thanks to his matchup against Kershaw, but he’s been terrific against lefties and terrific at home this season.

Houston at LA Angels

Houston					LA Angels
Dallas Keuchel		Vegas Moneyline			C.J. Wilson		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		LAA (-174)			LEFT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.253	0.665	0.302	28.2%	SP vs. Left	0.176	0.489	0.234	27.9%
SP vs. Right	0.278	0.752	0.335	16.0%	SP vs. Right	0.258	0.711	0.324	19.4%
Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs L		Batter Splits	LAA BvP		LAA vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Dallas Keuchel – Keuchel could make for a nice tournament play tonight. He’s a big underdog, but he’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball over his last 10 starts. The Angels hit LH pitching well, but sometimes you have to take risks in large GPP’s. Rating = 6

Salaries: $8000 FD, $NA DS, $16450 DD, $8100 DK, $97100 FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• C.J. Wilson – Wilson is one of my favorite plays if you don’t want to spend up for Sale, Kershaw, or Darvish. He has a nice matchup against the Astros who have struck out the 2nd most times of any team in baseball. Wilson has a nice K-rate and can pitch deep into games. Rating = 8

Salaries: $7700 FD, $ DS, $ DD, $8700 DK, $86200 FF, $21400 SS, $15350 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Avoid all Astros tonight except for maybe Jose Altuve who leads the AL in hits and SB’s.

LA Angels

Mike Trout – I expect this game to be a pitcher’s duel, but Trout is still in play. He has crushed LH pitching this season and offers a nice combination of speed and power which lets him score fantasy points in multiple ways.

Additional Plays: None