MLB Grind Down: Friday, June 20th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-06-20 20:24:27

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Baltimore at NY Yankees

Baltimore					NY Yankees
Ubaldo Jimenez		Vegas Moneyline			Hiroki Kuroda		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		NYY (-125)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.227	0.680	0.309	25.2%	SP vs. Left	0.265	0.743	0.327	16.1%
SP vs. Right	0.258	0.705	0.317	21.8%	SP vs. Right	0.239	0.618	0.276	19.8%
Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R		Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Ubaldo Jimenez – Ubaldo is having a lackluster season. Through 14 starts he has posted a 4.86 ERA with a 1.51 WHIP and a K/9 of 8.1. While his K-rate is still respectable, he has been given up quite a few big outings to his opponents. Tonight he catches a Yankees’ offense that is finally starting to score some runs. He’s an easy pitcher to avoid tonight with all of the other options available on a full slate of games. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5900 FD, $10939 DS, $11100 DD, $6700 DK, $63500 FF, $15600 SS, $11100 FTD

• Hiroki Kuroda – Kuroda is pitching a little better than his numbers suggest, but he is still having a down season. He is sporting a 4.32 ERA with a K/9 of only 6.2. He has given up at least 2 earned runs in 8 of his last 10 starts and finds himself in a tough matchup against the Orioles who are ranked 11th against RH pitching this season with a team .319 wOBA. Kuroda is a small favorite, but there are better options at his price point. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6800 FD, $11669 DS, $12350 DD, $7200 DK, $72600 FF, $17400 SS, $12350 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Chris Davis – Davis has been very boom or bust recently, but still has multi-HR power, especially against RH pitching. He has a .334 wOBA against righties this season and has a nice matchup against Kuroda whom he has already hit 2 HR’s off of.

Additional Plays: Nick Markakis, Nelson Cruz

NY Yankees

Jacoby Ellsbury – The Yankees’ offense is finally at full strength and they should start moving up the offensive rankings. Ellsbury’s numbers against RH pitching are down on the season, but he has always hit righties well in his career and is a threat to steal second every time he gets on base.

Additional Plays: Carlos Beltran, Brett Gardner, Brian McCann, Mark Teixeira

Detroit at Cleveland

Detroit					Cleveland
Rick Porcello		Vegas Moneyline			Corey Kluber		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		CLE (-125)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.286	0.777	0.346	14.6%	SP vs. Left	0.270	0.733	0.328	24.0%
SP vs. Right	0.248	0.641	0.283	22.2%	SP vs. Right	0.260	0.660	0.297	24.0%
Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs R		Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Rick Porcello – Porcello has not been sharp in his last 5 starts. He has given up a combined 20 earned runs while only striking out 20 batters. You definitely don’t like to see your starting DFS pitcher giving up the same amount of runs as he has in strikeouts. This is a bad matchup for Porcello too as he struggles with LHB’s and the Indians lineup is littered with lefties. Rating = 3

Salaries: $6800 FD, $13467 DS, $13350 DD, $7100 DK, $79800 FF, $18200 SS, $14250 FTD

• Corey Kluber – Kluber has a tough matchup against the Tigers, but his high ceiling makes him an interesting play tonight. Kluber has pitched well at home this season with a 3.04 ERA and a K/9 of 10.6. While I won’t be targeting him in cash games, I do like his appeal as an upside play in a GPP. He should get plenty of run support to put him in line for the win. Rating = 6

Salaries: $8300 FD, $19139 DS, $17700 DD, $8800 DK, $102200 FF, $26600 SS, $18000 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Miguel Cabrera – Cabrera is an easy play tonight, well I guess we can say that he is an easy play most nights. He’s the best hitter in baseball and has a .418 wOBA against RH pitching this season. He also has terrific numbers off of Kluber as he is 11/21 with 3 HR’s off of him.

Additional Plays: Victor Martinez

Cleveland

Lonnie Chisenhall – I was tempted to put Santana as the top play because of his recent hot streak, but I’ll stick with Chisenhall as he has mashed RH pitching to a tune of a .432 wOBA this season. He has a nice matchup against Porcello who has given up a .342 wOBA to LHB’s since the start of 2013.

Additional Plays: Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley

Atlanta at Washington

Atlanta					Washington
Mike Minor		Vegas Moneyline			Stephen Strasburg		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		WAS (-170)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.233	0.604	0.272	25.2%	SP vs. Left	0.225	0.612	0.282	23.6%
SP vs. Right	0.250	0.716	0.315	20.7%	SP vs. Right	0.226	0.592	0.277	29.9%
Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs R		Batter Splits	WSN BvP		WSN vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Mike Minor – Minor has given up 11 hits in back to back outings, but they were tough matchups as he faced the Rockies in Coors and the Angels at home. Through 9 starts this season, Minor is boasting a 4.42 ERA with a 1.51 WHIP and a K/9 of 8.3. Tonight he is facing a Nationals’ offense that is ranked 6th against LH pitching this season with a team .333 wOBA. I think his price is a little too high to target him tonight, especially considering the fact that Strasburg will get the start for the Nats. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7200 FD, $14796 DS, $13500 DD, $8000 DK, $77800 FF, $21100 SS, $13500 FTD

• Stephen Strasburg – I love targeting Strasburg at Nationals Park regardless of who the opponent is. He has been dominant at home throughout his career and this season is no different. In 8 home starts, he has a 2.10 ERA with an impressive K/9 of 12.0. Now that we’ve established his dominance at Nationals Park, let’s take a look at his opponent tonight. The Braves are 26th against RH pitching this season and are striking out at a 22% clip. Everything points to Strasburg pitching another gem tonight. Rating = 10

Salaries: $9800 FD, $22501 DS, $19750 DD, $10900 DK, $131800 FF, $30200 SS, $20050 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

I’ll be avoiding all Braves’ tonight against Strasburg. Not only is he great at home, but he has held LHB’s and RHB’s under a .285 wOBA since the start of 2013.

Washington

Jayson Werth – Werth against a struggling lefty is never a bad idea. Werth has a .393 wOBA against LH pitching this season and is cheaper than some of your other top OF’s on the board.

Additional Plays: Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon

Houston at Tampa Bay

Houston					Tampa Bay
Jarred Cosart		Vegas Moneyline			David Price		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		TBR (-180)			LEFT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.211	0.603	0.278	19.2%	SP vs. Left	0.223	0.580	0.263	22.4%
SP vs. Right	0.276	0.733	0.332	10.4%	SP vs. Right	0.265	0.698	0.307	23.2%
Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs L		Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TBR vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jarred Cosart – Cosart may seem like a pretty average fantasy option tonight, but he is facing a Rays’ offense that is really struggling to score runs right now. In fact, the Rays have scored the 4th fewest amount of runs in all of baseball. Cosart may be a bit too risky to use in cash games, but may be worth a flier in a GPP. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6400 FD, $11258 DS, $12050 DD, $6800 DK, $77300 FF, $17000 SS, $12050 FTD

• David Price – While Strasburg is my favorite pitcher tonight, Price is certainly in the conversation. Price throws a lot of strikes and faces an Astros’ offense that is very aggressive. That tends to lead to a lot of swinging strikes. Price struck out 10 batters in his last start against the Stros and has a great chance of reaching double-digit K’s again tonight. Rating = 9

Salaries: $9800 FD, $24245 DS, $20200 DD, $10900 DK, $118900 FF, $29700 SS, $20200 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Even though this Astros’ offense is actually pretty good against LH pitching, I will not be targeting any of them tonight against Price. They are huge underdogs in a game that features a total of only 7.0 runs.

Tampa Bay

Evan Longoria – The Rays’ offense finally came alive a little bit last night with 5 runs. Maybe that can jump-start their offense. Longo has a decent matchup against Cosart who has given up a .332 wOBA to RHB’s since the start of last season.

Additional Plays: Desmond Jennings

NY Mets at Miami

NY Mets					Miami
Daisuke Matsuzaka		Vegas Moneyline			Henderson Alvarez		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		MIA (-140)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.195	0.629	0.300	23.9%	SP vs. Left	0.273	0.704	0.315	13.6%
SP vs. Right	0.188	0.586	0.296	19.3%	SP vs. Right	0.240	0.587	0.273	15.3%
Batter Splits	NYM BvP		NYM vs R		Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Daisuke Matsuzaka – Dice-K will draw another start tonight for the Mets. He’s actually had a very nice season out of the bullpen and does have 2 quality starts under his belt. The issue with Dice-K has always been his command. He can be a bit erratic at times and while he does have the mammoth Marlins Park behind him, I think he’s a very risky option tonight. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5000 FD, $14726 DS, $11050 DD, $7200 DK, $46100 FF, $14700 SS, $NA FTD

• Henderson Alvarez – Alvarez is having a terrific season, especially at home. In his 7 starts at Marlins Park he has posted a 1.62 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP and a K/9 of 5.4. His K-rate isn’t up there with the aces, but neither is his price tag. He has a favorable matchup against the Mets who are ranked 28th against RH pitching this season with a team .291 wOBA. Rating = 7

Salaries: $7200 FD, $15700 DS, $13200 DD, $7300 DK, $90600 FF, $21000 SS, $13200 FTD

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

A big ballpark combined with the fact that the Mets are awful against RH pitching as a team is more than enough for me to avoid the Mets’ batters tonight.

Miami

Giancarlo Stanton – Stanton is always in play, especially at home where he has hit 13 of his 20 HR’s this season. Dice-K can struggle with his command at times and could end up serving one up to Stanton tonight.

Additional Plays: Garrett Jones

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2