MLB Grind Down: Friday, May 30th - Page 2

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-05-30 16:28:16

Atlanta at Miami

Atlanta					Miami
Julio Teheran		Vegas Moneyline			Tom Koehler		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		ATL (-125)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.256	0.723	0.322	17.4%	SP vs. Left	0.218	0.636	0.290	14.1%
SP vs. Right	0.209	0.568	0.267	25.5%	SP vs. Right	0.272	0.777	0.349	16.7%
Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs R		Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Julio Teheran – Teheran is one of the best non-household name starters in baseball. Through his first 11 starts this season, he has a 1.77 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP and a K/9 of 7.2. He has pitched well both at home and on the road and he pitched very well against the Marlins earlier this season. While the Marlins have been terrific at home, I think Teheran pitches another gem tonight. Rating = 8

Salaries: $8900 FD, $20742 DS, $19750 DD, $10600 DK, $124300 FF, $29600 SS, $14500 FTD

• Tom Koehler – Koehler is also enjoying a terrific season, but most people will argue that he has been pitching over his head. That could be the case as he has now given up 4+ runs in 3 of his last 6 outings. His K/9 is just under 6.0 which just isn’t enough to make up for his recent struggles. I’ll be avoiding him tonight against the Braves. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5800 FD, $13739 DS, $14400 DD, $6900 DK, $68800 FF, $18800 SS, $12100 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Justin Upton – Even though Koehler is a RH pitcher, he gives up a much higher wOBA to RHB’s (.349) than he does to LHB’s (.290). Upton has been locked in over the last 7 days with a .400 batting average and an OPS of 1.13.

Additional Plays: Freddie Freeman, Justin Upton

Miami

Even though this Marlins’ offense has been scoring runs in bunches at home this season, I really like the Teheran side of this matchup. That said, if you are targeting any batters here, target the lefties as Teheran has given up a .322 wOBA to LHB’s this season.

Tampa Bay at Boston

Tampa Bay					Boston
David Price		Vegas Moneyline			Brandon Workman		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		TBR (-125)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.222	0.587	0.262	23.4%	SP vs. Left	0.248	0.698	0.310	23.1%
SP vs. Right	0.270	0.710	0.312	21.8%	SP vs. Right	0.273	0.741	0.331	27.3%
Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TBR vs R		Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• David Price – Price continues to throw strikes and it continues to backfire. While throwing strikes allows him to throw a lot of strikeouts and pitch deep into games, it also lets hitters know what to expect. That said, his WHIP of 1.18 suggests that he is pitching much better than his 4.42 ERA on the season. I will continue to target Price because he has such a high upside. It also doesn’t hurt that this Red Sox offense has been struggling to score runs (with the exception of the Braves’ series). Rating = 8

Salaries: $9200 FD, $18889 DS, $18000 DD, $10100 DK, $109300 FF, $27400 SS, $17000 FTD

• Brandon Workman – Workman gave up 3 earned runs and struck out 3 batters over 5 innings in his first start of the season. This young righty has nice K-potential, but is still largely unproven at the major league level. I’d like to see him get a few starts under his belt before targeting him in daily fantasy. Rating = 5

Salaries: $4200 FD, $11616 DS, $9450 DD, $5000 DK, $67500 FF, $13000 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Evan Longoria – Longo has been heating up in the 2 hole. He has 11 hits over his last 7 games and draws a nice matchup against the inexperienced RHP Workman. Fenway Park is a very favorable park to RHB’s and Longo is an affordable option at 3B tonight.

Additional Plays: Matt Joyce, Desmond Jennings

Boston

Jonny Gomes – As I mentioned in yesterday’s Grind Down, Gomes is batting over .300 against LH pitching this season and is always a nice value play in the OF when he faces a lefty. I like Price in this matchup, but he has been very hittable this season so I’m not fading the Red Sox bats completely.

Additional Plays: Dustin Pedroia

San Diego at Chicago White Sox

San Diego					Chicago White Sox
Ian Kennedy		Vegas Moneyline			John Danks		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		SDP (-120)			LEFT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.250	0.772	0.340	24.0%	SP vs. Left	0.275	0.774	0.339	12.4%
SP vs. Right	0.256	0.705	0.325	20.3%	SP vs. Right	0.268	0.786	0.345	17.0%
Batter Splits	SDP BvP		SDP vs L		Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CHW vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Ian Kennedy – Kennedy has been a bright spot in this Padres’ starting pitching rotation. He has a 3.59 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and a K/9 of 9.7. Kennedy is always an affordable mid-range option in daily fantasy, but he typically has more upside than the other options at his price point. Tonight’s matchup against the White Sox isn’t particularly great as they are ranked 8th against RH pitching, but his high K-rate puts him in play on multi-pitcher sites and GPP’s. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7000 FD, $15915 DS, $15300 DD, $8200 DK, $92300 FF, $25000 SS, $12500 FTD

• John Danks – Danks is a pitcher that I tend to avoid unless he has an extremely favorable matchup. He has a 4.90 ERA on the season with a K/9 of 6.7. He is facing a Padres’ offense that is finally starting to get healthy. I think he makes sense as a deep tournament play, but he’s too inconsistent for me to target him in cash games. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5400 FD, $12864 DS, $13050 DD, $5800 DK, $65400 FF, $16200 SS, $10800 FTD

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Carlos Quentin – Quentin is an injury risk every time he takes the field, but is a terrific hitter when he is healthy enough to step up to the plate. He’s batting .333 against LH pitching this season with an OPS of 1.03. Great matchup against the LHP Danks.

Additional Plays: Chase Headley, Jedd Gyorko

Chicago White Sox

Conor Gillaspie – Gilliaspie will not be a popular play tonight, but I think he is a terrific value at 3B. He’s batting .375 against RH pitching this season with an OPS of .921. He’ll likely be batting 3rd agaisnt Kennedy who has given up a .340 wOBA to LHB’s this season.

Additional Plays: Adam Eaton, Dayan Viciedo

Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee

Chicago Cubs					Milwaukee
Travis Wood		Vegas Moneyline			Marco Estrada		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		MIL (-157)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.195	0.536	0.254	21.8%	SP vs. Left	0.196	0.632	0.282	22.9%
SP vs. Right	0.236	0.668	0.303	17.0%	SP vs. Right	0.260	0.762	0.332	23.4%
Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs R		Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Travis Wood – Wood has had 2 bad outings, but has pitched extremely well in his other 10 starts. He has a respectable K/9 of 7.8. The issue here is that Wood struggles with RHB’s and this Brewers’ offense is almost exclusively RH hitters. I think he could be a sneaky play for tournaments, but he’s too big of an underdog to use in cash games. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7100 FD, $13585 DS, $13800 DD, $7200 DK, $83800 FF, $21900 SS, $12100 FTD

• Marco Estrada – Estrada has been a very reliable fantasy option this season. He rarely has a bad start and his K/9 of 8.4 certainly doesn’t hurt. Tonight he faces a Cubs’ offense that is ranked 28th against RH pitching with a team .282 wOBA and a 22.6 K-percentage. The matchup and upside are both there tonight for Estrada. Rating = 7

Salaries: $7500 FD, $19111 DS, $16450 DD, $8800 DK, $90700 FF, $23400 SS, $13200 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Anthony Rizzo – Taking a HR hitter in a HR-friendly ballpark is never a terrible idea. Rizzo has terrific power against RH pitching and I will have some exposure to him tonight in my GPP lineups.

Additional Plays: Starlin Castro

Milwaukee

Ryan Braun – Braun is batting .326 against LH pitching this season with an OPS of .868. He’s also swinging a hot bat with a .455 batting average over the last 7 days. Keep riding the hot streak of Braun.

Additional Plays: Jonathan Lucroy, Carlos Gomez, Jean Segura

Baltimore at Houston

Baltimore					Houston
Miguel Gonzalez		Vegas Moneyline			Brett Oberholtzer		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		BAL (-110)			LEFT		9.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.238	0.679	0.305	18.4%	SP vs. Left	0.271	0.674	0.301	18.8%
SP vs. Right	0.261	0.768	0.339	17.0%	SP vs. Right	0.261	0.727	0.318	16.5%
Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs L		Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Miguel Gonzalez – Gonzalez has pitched well in each of his last 3 starts, one of which came against this Astros team. He struck out 6 batters over 7 innings of work while giving up 2 earned runs. While I would like to think we can expect a similar outing from him tonight, this Astros’ offense is really causing fits for opposing pitchers. The total is set at 9.0 runs and I think the best option is to avoid both pitchers in this one. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6100 FD, $14365 DS, $11100 DD, $6400 DK, $89600 FF, $17100 SS, $11400 FTD

• Brett Oberholtzer – Obertholtzer has a 5.32 ERA on the season with a 1.52 WHIP. While he does have a decent K-rate, he has a tough matchup against the Orioles and he isn’t getting any love from Vegas tonight. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5700 FD, $9178 DS, $9550 DD, $5800 DK, $70100 FF, $15100 SS, $9500 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Nelson Cruz – Per usual Cruz fashion, Nelson is crushing LH pitching this season. He’s batting .394 against southpaws with an OPS of 1.41. I love the matchup tonight against Oberholtzer in what is expected to be a high scoring affair.

Additional Plays: Adam Jones, Manny Machado

Houston

George Springer – Springer does it again! He hit his 10th HR of the month last night. This young kid is locked in right now and it’s time to start believing in him if you aren’t a believer already.

Additional Plays: Jason Castro, Jose Altuve

MLB Grind Down Page 2 – Page 3