MLB Grind Down: Monday, April 21st
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Kansas City at Cleveland
| Kansas City | Cleveland |
| Jeremy Guthrie | Vegas Moneyline | Zach McAllister | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | CLE (-142) | RIGHT | 8.0 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.325 | 0.886 | 0.389 | 11.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.255 | 0.747 | 0.335 | 17.8% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.228 | 0.619 | 0.282 | 13.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.253 | 0.678 | 0.306 | 17.8% |
| Batter Splits | KCR BvP  | KCR vs R | Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Jeremy Guthrie – Guthrie has posted similar numbers to those of the last two seasons. In his first 3 starts this season he has a 4.34 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and a K/9 of 5.2. Guthrie’s biggest weakness is facing LH batters as he is giving up a .389 wOBA and an .886 OPS to LH hitters. This is a tough matchup for him as the Indians lineup is littered with LH bats that have good power against RH pitching. At his pirce point, he should be avoided in all leagues. Rating = 3
- Zach McAllister – McAllister has really pitched well in his first 3 starts. He has a 2.04 ERA with 15 K’s over 17 innings of work. While McAllister is a sizable favorite (-142), he has very limited upside in this matchup. Not only do the Royals hit RH pitching well, but as a team they have less strikeouts than any other team in baseball. The Royals have only struck out 91 times this season which is 11 times fewer than the next lowest team. Rating = 5
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
- Alex Gordon – Gordon is batting lower in the lineup this season which should equate to a higher RBI total once the season is over. Gordon has nice power against RH pitching and McAllister is giving up a .335 wOBA to LH batters. Gordon has 7 hits over his last 5 games and makes a solid value play in the OF.
Cleveland
- Michael Brantley – As mentioned above, Guthrie really struggles against LH batters and most of Brantley’s power comes against RH pitching. Brantley is locked in right now with 5 hits and 2 HR’s in his last 4 games. He should come up to bat with quite a few RBI opportunities.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
| Cincinnati | Pittsburgh |
| Mike Leake | Vegas Moneyline | Francisco Liriano | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | PIT (-132) | LEFT | 7.0 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.260 | 0.717 | 0.318 | 13.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.150 | 0.376 | 0.174 | 28.8% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.251 | 0.668 | 0.303 | 17.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.244 | 0.683 | 0.307 | 23.7% |
| Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs L | Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Mike Leake – Leake has been impressive in his last two starts. He’s only allowed 3 earned runs while striking out 11 batters over 15 innings of work. One of those starts being against the Pirates. Last season in 4 starts against the Pirates Leake posted a 3.28 ERA. While the run total is low in this game, Leake is a small underdog and will likely have a tough time receiving run support with Liriano pitching opposite him. He’s an average option at best. Rating = 5
- Francisco Liriano – Liriano has given up at least 3 earned runs in each of his last 3 starts, two of those were on the road and one was against the Cardinals. The two best situations to target Liriano in are when he is pitching at home (1.47 ERA last season) and when he is facing a team whose best hitters are LH (.174 wOBA to LH batters). He gets both tonight against the Reds. Liriano’s price is a bit cheaper than some of the other top aces, but he has just as much upside with his K/9 of 9.1. Rating = 8
Batter Grind Down
Cincinnati
- Todd Frazier – While I won’t be targeting Frazier in cash games, he has nice power against LH pitching (.782 OPS last season) and he does have 2 career HR’s off of Liriano. He makes for a nice contrarian play in a GPP.
Pittsburgh
- Andrew McCutchen – Cutch’s 8 game hitting streak came to an end yesterday, but he should start a new one today against Leake. Cutch has nice power against RH pitching (.864 OPS) and loved playing in PNC Park last season with a .337 average and a .962 OPS.
LA Angels at Washington
| LA Angels | Washington |
| Garrett Richards | Vegas Moneyline | Tanner Roark | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | WAS (-110) | RIGHT | 8.0 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.261 | 0.702 | 0.318 | 17.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.278 | 0.740 | 0.337 | 13.8% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.257 | 0.631 | 0.286 | 15.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.181 | 0.407 | 0.192 | 23.1% |
| Batter Splits | LAA BvP | LAA vs R | Batter Splits | WSN BvP | WSN vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Garrett Richards – Richards has always had great stuff, but he has never been able to put it all together. It looks like he is taking that big leap this season though. In his first 3 starts this season, he has a 2.84 ERA with 18 K’s over 19 innings pitched. Tonight he faces the Nationals in the pitcher-friendly Nationals Park. Vegas has this game as a pick ‘em and Richards is probably nothing more than a deep GPP play tonight. Rating = 5
- Tanner Roark – Roark has made 3 starts this season and has given up at least 2 earned runs in each. He has a 5.29 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP and 13 K’s over 17 innings of work. He has a tough draw against the stacked Angels’ lineup tonight. If Roark had a much higher K-rate, he could carry value as a GPP play, but I think there is much more risk than reward with him tonight against the Angels. Rating = 3
Batter Grind Down
LA Angels
- J.B. Shuck – Roark is giving up a .321 average and a 1.08 OPS to LH batters this season. Shuck will likely be batting lead-off again and makes for an excellent punt play. If he can get on base, Trout, Pujols, and Co. should be able to get him home.
Washington
- Bryce Harper – It’s been quite the start to the season for Harper. It almost feels like a reality TV show. He got off to a slow start, got kicked in the head, started hitting much better, and then got benched. Who needs the Kardashians when you have Harper? In all seriousness, Harper has nice power against RH pitching and Richards isn’t great against LH batters.
Chicago White Sox at Detroit
| Chicago White Sox | Detroit |
| John Danks | Vegas Moneyline | Anibal Sanchez | Vegas Over/Under |
| LEFT | DET (-185) | RIGHT | 8.0 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.281 | 0.789 | 0.346 | 13.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.249 | 0.673 | 0.303 | 26.5% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.264 | 0.764 | 0.335 | 16.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.198 | 0.532 | 0.241 | 28.1% |
| Batter Splits | CHW BvP | CHW vs R | Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs L |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- John Danks – Danks is one of those pitchers that I always have a hard time trusting. Not only does he have a low K-rate with a K/9 of 5.8 last season, but there were numerous times when he got shelled last season. The Tigers are a team that really hits LH pitching well and Danks comes into this game as one of the biggest underdogs on the schedule (+175). He should be avoided in all leagues. Rating = 3
- Anibal Sanchez – Sanchez has gotten off to a rough start this season. He has had an outing cut short by rain and has not been able to keep this pitch counts down in his other starts. That said, he really started to settle into a nice rhythm in his last start and I expect him to build on that tonight. Last season he posted a 2.70 ERA with a K/9 of 10.6 in 14 home starts at Comerica. He is not my top cash game play tonight, but he is close. Rating = 9
Batter Grind Down
Chicago White Sox
- Sanchez has enjoyed some great success against this White Sox lineup and looked sharp in his last outing once he got his command under control. There are a lot of other games on the schedule and I’m sure you can find better options than the White Sox bats tonight.
Detroit
- Miguel Cabrera – Is anyone else waiting for a big game from Miggy? While he hasn’t been awful in the early going this season, he hasn’t been the Miggy of the past few seasons. This is a perfect matchup to knock him out of his slump though. Danks is giving up a .335 wOBA to RH batters and Miggy hit LH pitching to a tune of a 1.21 OPS last season. I’m calling a Miggy bomb tonight.
Miami at Atlanta
| Miami | Atlanta |
| Tom Koehler | Vegas Moneyline | Julio Teheran | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | ATL (-175) | RIGHT | 7.0 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.225 | 0.665 | 0.300 | 13.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.275 | 0.773 | 0.343 | 16.7% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.280 | 0.776 | 0.348 | 16.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.213 | 0.562 | 0.266 | 24.6% |
| Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs R | Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Tom Koehler – Koehler is not a pitcher that you will see many people roster this season. He just doesn’t have enough upside to be considered a viable fantasy option when he takes the mound. Last season he posted a 4.41 ERA with a K/9 of 5.8. He has pitched well in his first few starts this season, but is a (+165) underdog that carries no value as a cash game or GPP play. Rating = 3
- Julio Teheran – Teheran finally had the start that I had been waiting for. He pitched a complete game shutout against the Phillies in his last start and has another favorable matchup tonight against the Marlins. Last season at home, Teheran posted a 3.04 ERA with a K/9 of 9.6. This Marlins offense has been better than most predicted, but Teheran should have no problem quieting the Fish’ bats tonight. Rating = 8
Batter Grind Down
Miami
- Teheran’s biggest weakness is pitching against LH batters as he is giving up a .343 wOBA to LH batters. That said, none of the LH batters on the Marlins stand out as viable fantasy options tonight. I’m going to be targeting Teheran heavily and have little, if any, exposure to the Marlins.
Atlanta
- B.J. Upton – I’m 110% sure this is the first time that I have recommended B.J. Upton this season. He has burned a lot of bridges with DFS players after his very disappointing 2013 season. We have to learn to put that behind us though. Upton is extremely cheap across the industry, is riding a 5 game hitting streak, and he faces Koehler who is giving up a .348 wOBA to RH batters.
MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2
