MLB Grind Down: Monday, March 31 - Page 3

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-03-30 22:57:51

San Francisco vs. Arizona

9:40 PM	San Francisco – ROAD					Arizona – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.259	0.692	16.90%	0.51		0.259	0.717	18.30%	0.56
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.264	0.706	16.90%	0.41		0.263	0.708	17.20%	0.40
SP STATS	Bumgarner – LHP					McCarthy – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.03	2.77	8.91	12.58		1.37	4.57	5.39	7.65
LAST 14 DAYS	1.08	2.08	11.08	17.00		1.75	3.75	3.75	8.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	SFG vs R		SFG BvP			ARI vs L		ARI BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Madison Bumgarner – Bumgarner draws the Opening Day start over Matt Cain. Bumgarner has basically been unhittable so far in Spring ball and is coming off of another stellar season. Last year, Bumgarner posted a 2.77 ERA with a K-rate of 8.9/9 IP. It is worth noting that his numbers dipped slightly on the road, but not enough to persuade you off of taking him today against the D-Backs. Bumgarner owned this lineup last season. In 5 starts against the D-Backs last season, he held them to a .200 batting average and posted a 1.31 ERA against them. I think he’s a fine option today, but I still like some of the other aces a bit more. Rating = 7

• Brandon McCarthy – McCarthy is not a pitcher that is going to rack up the K’s. His K-rate was only 5.39/9 IP last season while posting a 4.57 ERA. McCarthy did pitch well at home, but he has limited upside and is a small underdog today. He’s not the worst pitching option if you are looking for some cap relief, but Scheppers offers more upside for the price. Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

• Buster Posey – Even though McCarthy is a RH pitcher, he really struggled against RH bats last season. Against righties, he gave up a .310 batting average with a .800 OPS. Posey is a player that hits all type of pitching well. He hits LH pitching well, he hits RH pitching well, he hits well at home, and he hits well on the road. Posey is a top option at Catcher today and should be targeted in all leagues in this hitter’s park.

• Hunter Pence – Pence had a very nice season for the Giants last year. He hit 27 HR’s and stole a career high 22 bases. McCarthy has not pitched well against RH hitters and Pence should be right in the heart of their order. He should see plenty of RBI opportunities here.

• Additional Plays: Angel Pagan, Brandon Belt, Pablo Sandoval

Arizona

• Paul Goldschmidt – Bumgarner has had great success against the D-Backs, but Goldy is always in play against LH pitching. I’m not sure that I will be using him in cash games, but his power against LH pitching really makes him a terrific tournament play. Over the last 3 seasons, Goldy has a .998 OPS against lefties and has hit a HR off of Bumgarner.

• Additional Plays: None

Seattle vs. LA Angels

10:05 PM	Seattle – ROAD					LA Angels – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.243	0.706	21.70%	0.54		0.263	0.743	18.90%	0.61
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.246	0.723	21.40%	0.47		0.270	0.753	19.10%	0.48
SP STATS	Hernandez – RHP					Weaver – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.14	2.99	9.54	13.00		1.16	3.36	7.04	10.74
LAST 14 DAYS	1.25	2.25	22.50	13.00		1.50	3.75	7.50	10.50
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	SEA vs R		SEA BvP			LAA vs R		LAA BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Felix Hernandez – King Felix is back and ready for another Cy Young type of season. The King is coming off of another fabulous season in which he posted a 2.99 ERA and a K-rate of 9.5/9 IP. Even more impressive was his WHIP of 1.14. Hernandez had success against this Angels lineup last season with a 2.9 ERA over 5 starts. The biggest problem that I see here is Felix getting run support. Having your pitcher pick up a win is extremely important in DFS and Felix is a slight underdog here. Rating = 7

• Jered Weaver – Weaver is coming off a bit of a disappointing season. His ERA and WHIP were both higher than those of his previous 2 seasons. He was great at home though posting a 2.59 ERA in 12 starts. He is much cheaper than King Felix and actually has a better chance of picking up the win. He has a much better offense behind him and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Weaver start his season off with a W. Rating = 8

Batter Grind Down

Seattle/LA Angels

This game will likely turn into a pitcher’s duel. Both pitchers have had success against the other team’s lineup and this game has one of the lowest totals of the day at only 6.5 runs. I know that offense is going to be hard to find on Opening Day, but for the most part you should avoid the hitters in this game.

• Mike Trout – When I said for the most part, Trout is the exception. Trout has been matchup proof for two seasons now and actually has great numbers against Hernandez. In 38 at-bats against the King, Trout has 15 hits, 5 of those going for extra bases. Trout also offers the ability to steal bases as he has averaged over 40 stolen bases per season over the last 2 years.

• Additional Plays: None

Cleveland vs. Oakland

10:05 PM	Cleveland – ROAD					Oakland – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.253	0.732	21.10%	0.63		0.244	0.718	19.40%	0.59
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.245	0.717	21.70%	0.47		0.250	0.730	19.00%	0.48
SP STATS	Masterson – RHP					Gray – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.22	3.52	8.95	12.38		1.10	2.90	9.00	10.45
LAST 14 DAYS						1.38	3.94	8.44	10.67
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	CLE vs R		CLE BvP			OAK vs R		OAK BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Justin Masterson – This game features two very solid pitchers. Masterson’s ERA wasn’t great last season at 3.52, but he does have a K rate right around 9 per 9 innings. I’m not crazy about Masterson today though. First off, Masterson is a much better pitcher at home. Second, the A’s had the 10th fewest strikeouts last season which limits Masterson’s upside. Finally, the A’s were ranked in the top 10 against RH pitching last season and have plenty of LH bats to throw at Masterson. I think the A’s are actually a sneaky team to mini-stack today. Rating = 5

• Sonny Gray – Gray is coming off of a terrific rookie campaign last season. He posted an ERA under 3.00 with a K-rate just under 9 per 9 innings. Gray was basically their best pitcher down the stretch and has been rewarded with the Opening Day start. Gray was close to unhittable at home last season with a 1.99 ERA and a WHIP of only .930. Gray has never faced the Indians before, but has held opponents to a .214 batting average which is incredible. Gray is another guy that may fly under the radar that could be the difference maker in some of these big tournaments. Rating = 9

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

• The Indians are underdogs in a game that features a very low total. I fully expect Gray to dominate this lineup and pick up a W. Even though the Indians have a lot of LH bats to throw at Gray, it may take them a couple of times through the order before they start to figure him out. I’m avoiding all things Indians today.

Oakland

• Coco Crisp – Masterson is considerably worse against LH batters. His batting average against LH bats is over 50 points higher than that against RH bats. His OPS against lefties is almost 200 points higher. That means that you should be targeting the lefties of the A’s. Crisp had a career high in HR’s last season and is a player that provides both speed and pop. If the price is right, he makes a great play tonight.

• Brandon Moss – Moss hit RH pitching at a .268 clip which may not seem high, but he has incredible power against RH pitching. Moss hit 26 of his 30 HR’s last season against RH pitching and had an OPS over .900. Moss will likely fly under the radar to those that are new to daily fantasy baseball.

Additional Plays: Josh Reddick, Jed Lowrie