MLB Grind Down: Monday, May 19th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Detroit at Cleveland
| Detroit | Cleveland | ||||||||
| Drew Smyly | Vegas Moneyline | Corey Kluber | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | DET (-110) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.164 | 0.435 | 0.196 | 27.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.277 | 0.730 | 0.325 | 23.6% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.252 | 0.737 | 0.326 | 24.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.263 | 0.679 | 0.305 | 23.5% |
| Batter Splits | DET BvP  | DET vs R | Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Happy Monday Grinders! Only 5 games on the schedule tonight so today’s Grind Down should be pretty easy reading. Just wanted to remind everyone that RG offers a daily MLB Expert Chat with yours truly. The chat goes from 6:00 ET to 6:30 ET and is available to all Grinders with access to incentives. Also, if you are interested in receiving the Daily MLB Newsletter and lineup alerts, be sure to check the box in your RG profile under “Edit Email Options.”
Pitcher Grind Down
Drew Smyly – Smyly has pitched well this season. In 8 appearances, he has posted a 2.70 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP and a K/9 of 8.2. He has been extremely efficient against LH batters holding them to a .196 wOBA over the last 2 seasons. That bodes well for his matchup tonight against the Indians who have numerous LH bats in their lineup. The Indians are also ranked dead last against LH pitching with a team .272 wOBA. With only 10 starting pitchers available tonight, Smyly is certainly in play. Rating = 6
Corey Kluber – Kluber has been terrific in his last 3 starts. While he has given up a combined 5 earned runs, his combined 31 K’s over those outings more than make up for the runs. Kluber has a 3.38 ERA on the season with a 1.28 WHIP and a K/9 of of 10.4. Kluber has really pitched well at home too with an ERA under 3.00 Progressive Field since the start of last season. The only downside here is that he is facing the Tigers who are ranked 7th against RH pitching with a team .329 wOBA. Rating = 6
Batter Grind Down
Detroit
Miguel Cabrera – Miggy is one of the very few hitters in baseball that is almost matchup proof. He is batting .344 against RH pitching this season with an OPS of .926. He has also fared well against Kluber in his career going 8/17 against him with 3 HR’s.
Additional Plays: Victor Martinez
Cleveland
Ryan Raburn – Raburn is the Indians’ LHP specialist. He is typically only in the lineup against southpaws and he typically bats 5th or 6th. While he is only batting .149 against lefties this season, he hit for a .308 average against lefties last season. He is close to minimum salary across the board and makes a terrific value play at 2B/OF.
Additional Plays: Carlos Santana
Cincinnati at Washington
| Cincinnati | Washington | ||||||||
| Mike Leake | Vegas Moneyline | Stephen Strasburg | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | WAS (-171) | RIGHT | 6.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.259 | 0.708 | 0.317 | 13.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.219 | 0.600 | 0.278 | 23.0% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.250 | 0.662 | 0.300 | 16.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.224 | 0.589 | 0.275 | 30.6% |
| Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | Batter Splits | WSN BvP | WSN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Mike Leake – Leake continues to put up good, but not overpowering numbers. On the season he has a 3.08 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP and a K/9 of 5.2. The number that should stand out to you here is the K-rate of only 5.2 per 9 innings. With strikeouts being so important in daily fantasy baseball, his low K-rate really hurts his fantasy appeal. While the Nationals are ranked 21st against RH pitching this season, he is going to have a tough time getting any run support with Strasburg pitching for the Nationals. A low K-rate and a low chance of getting the win is not a great recipe for DFS success. Rating = 5
Stephen Strasburg – Strasburg is having another terrific season at home. In his first 5 starts at Nationals Park this season he has posted a 2.70 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP and a very impressive K/9 of 12.7. Tonight he faces a Reds’ offense that is missing it’s best 2 hitters in Joey Votto and Jay Bruce. Strasburg should be able to mow through this lineup and hopefully pick up quite a few strikeouts along the way. He is the top pitching option available if you can find a way to get him in your lineups. Rating = 10
Batter Grind Down
Cincinnati
If this game were being played in Cincinnati, I would maybe consider targeting a few Reds’ hitters as GPP plays, but Strasburg is dominant when pitching at Nationals Park. Avoid all Reds tonight.
Washington
Denard Span – Span is not a player that gets targeted often in daily fantasy baseball, but Leake has held RH batters to a .207 batting average this season. Span bats from the left side of the plate and has the splits in his favor against Leake. He’s got decent speed too with 25 SB’s since the start of last season.
Additional Plays: Jayson Werth
Milwaukee at Atlanta
| Milwaukee | Atlanta | ||||||||
| Wily Peralta | Vegas Moneyline | Mike Minor | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | ATL (-128) | LEFT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.259 | 0.712 | 0.322 | 16.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.226 | 0.596 | 0.268 | 26.5% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.259 | 0.673 | 0.309 | 16.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.242 | 0.693 | 0.304 | 20.7% |
| Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs L | Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Wily Peralta – Peralta has pitched extremely well this season with a 2.05 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a K/9 of 6.7. This is a boom or bust type of matchup for Peralta as the Braves have a lot of power in their lineup, but they also strike out often. The Braves are ranked 28th against RH pitching this season with a team .277 wOBA and a 23.5 K%. Peralta is a small underdog tonight, but makes a nice GPP play on a night that doesn’t feature many other options. Rating = 6
Mike Minor – Minor is coming off of his best start of the season as he held the Giants scoreless in 6 and 2/3 innings of work while striking out 6 batters. Minor’s K/9 over the last few seasons is right around 7.5. Tonight he faces a Brewers’ offense that is ranked 23rd against LH pitching this season with a team .300 wOBA despite having the majority of batters in their lineup hit from the right side of the plate. I’ve got Minor ranked slightly above Peralta in their matchup tonight, especially if Carlos Gomez is out of the lineup with his illness. Rating = 7
Batter Grind Down
Milwaukee
Ryan Braun – Braun has always hit LH pitching well. Over the last 3 seasons, he is batting .360 with a 1.18 OPS. He’s facing the LHP Minor who could still be shaking off some rust as he is only making his 4th start of the season.
Additional Plays: Jonathan Lucroy
Atlanta
Freddie Freeman – Over his past 6 games, Freeman has 8 hits including 2 HR’s. He is batting .313 against RH pitching this season with an OPS of .889. Since the start of 2013, Peralta has given up a .322 wOBA to LH batters which also bodes well for Freeman tonight.
Additional Plays: Jason Heyward
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City
| Chicago White Sox | Kansas City | ||||||||
| Scott Carroll | Vegas Moneyline | Jason Vargas | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | KCR (-164) | LEFT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.393 | 1.033 | 0.449 | 1.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.297 | 0.725 | 0.319 | 14.7% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.273 | 0.687 | 0.347 | 15.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.257 | 0.729 | 0.328 | 17.6% |
| Batter Splits | CHW BvP | CHW vs L | Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KCR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Scott Carroll – After giving up a combined 11 hits and 1 earned run in his first 2 starts, teams have really caught on and he has now given up a combined 22 hits and 12 earned runs in his last 2 starts. Even though the Royals offense is ranked 25th against RH pitching, Carroll should be avoided in all leagues tonight. Rating = 3
Jason Vargas – Vargas has made 9 starts this season and has had mixed results. He’s given up at least 5 earned runs in 2 of those starts and has held his opponents to less than 3 earned runs in his other 7 starts. On the season he has a 3.00 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP and a K/9 of 6.0. He has a favorable matchup tonight against the White Sox who are ranked 20th against LH pitching this season with a team .305 wOBA. He’s a big favorite here and should hopefully get run support with Carroll on the mound for the White Sox. Rating = 7
Batter Grind Down
Chicago White Sox
Alexei Ramirez – Ramirez has to be one of the most overlooked players in daily fantasy baseball. He’s batting .320 on the season with 5 HR’s and 7 SB’s. He also has a good track record against Vargas going 8/18 with 2 HR’s against him.
Additional Plays: Dayan Viciedo
Kansas City
Eric Hosmer – The sample size is extremely small (only 4 starts), but Carroll has given up a .449 wOBA and an OPS of 1.03 to LH batters this season. Hosmer is batting .303 against RH pitching this season with an OPS of .741. He makes a great option at 1B that will provide some salary cap relief.
Additional Plays: Alex Gordon, Salvador Perez, Norichika Aoki, Billy Butler
Houston at LA Angels
| Houston | LA Angels | ||||||||
| Dallas Keuchel | Vegas Moneyline | Garrett Richards | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | LAA (-210) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.279 | 0.733 | 0.332 | 29.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.251 | 0.677 | 0.307 | 18.4% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.286 | 0.780 | 0.346 | 15.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.244 | 0.598 | 0.273 | 19.2% |
| Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs R | Batter Splits | LAA BvP | LAA vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Dallas Keuchel – We’ve mentioned this a few times already this season, but Keuchel is not a pitcher that is not an automatic stack option against when he takes the mound, he’s actually a very good LH pitcher. On the season he has a 3.06 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP and a K/9 of 7.9. While I’m not going to recommend taking him against the Angels (who are ranked 4th against LH pitching this season), I do think we need to temper our expectations on the Angels’ hitters. Rating = 4
Garrett Richards – If you aren’t taking Strasburg tonight on single pitcher sites, the easy pivot here is to take Richards. He is boasting some very impressive numbers this season with a 2.42 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and K/9 of 9.3. Richards faces an Astros’ offense that is ranked 22nd against RH pitching this season with a team .300 wOBA. The best part about this matchup is his K-potential. The Astros have struck out 393 times this season which is the 2nd most of any team in baseball. Rating = 9
Batter Grind Down
Houston
Since the start of last season, Richards has held LH and RH batters under a .310 wOBA. I expect Richards to pitch well again tonight and I will not be taking any batters against him.
L.A. Angels
Albert Pujols – Pujols is batting .278 against LH pitching this season with an OPS of .855. Pujols is a very streaky hitter and he is trending upward after hitting 2 HR’s against the Rays yesterday.
Additional Plays: Mike Trout, C.J. Cron