MLB Grind Down: Sunday, April 6th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Minnesota at Cleveland
| Minnesota | Cleveland |
| Ricky Nolasco | Vegas Moneyline | Justin Masterson | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | CLE (-175) | RIGHT | 7.5 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.257 | 0.707 | 0.319 | 19.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.248 | 0.681 | 0.316 | 19.4% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.252 | 0.643 | 0.291 | 20.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.182 | 0.473 | 0.238 | 32.0% |
| Batter Splits | MIN BvP  | MIN vs R | Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Ricky Nolasco – Nolasco didn’t look great in his first start this season. He only struck out 4 batters while giving up 5 earned runs over 6 innings pitched. He did have a K/9 of 7.5 last season, but the Indians offense can put up runs in a hurry and Nolasco is a large underdog (+160). Rating = 4
- Justin Masterson – Masterson pitched 7 shut-out innings in his first start of the season and will look to build on that today against the Twins. Masterson was dominant at home last season with a 3.09 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a K/9 of 9.6. This Twins offense doesn’t have a lot of power. Masterson is a great play at his price point across the industry. Rating = 8
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
- Joe Mauer – Masterson held RH batters to a .238 wOBA last season so if you are targeting any bats from the Twins, make sure they are batting from the left side of the plate. Mauer hit for a .323 average against RH pitching last season.
Cleveland
- Michael Brantley – Brantley doesn’t hit many HR’s, but he hits for a high average and puts runs on the board. He makes a great cash game play against Nolasco who gave up a .316 wOBA to LH batters last season. Brantley hit for a .299 average against RH pitching last season and has already driven up 5 runs this season.
NY Yankees at Toronto
| NY Yankees | Toronto |
| CC Sabathia | Vegas Moneyline | Drew Hutchison | Vegas Over/Under |
| LEFT | TOR (-120) | RIGHT | 9.0 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.242 | 0.648 | 0.293 | 30.0% | SP vs. Left | | | | |
| SP vs. Right | 0.281 | 0.798 | 0.352 | 16.0% | SP vs. Right | | | | |
| Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs R | Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs L |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- CC Sabathia – Hopefully I talked you out of Sabathia on Opening Day as he gave up 6 earned runs in only 6 innings of work. He is a huge name in baseball, but unfortunately he is just not an elite pitcher anymore. He can no longer blow batters away with his fastball as it clocks in at around 89 MPH. Sabathia can still be a nice pitcher for the Yankees, but he has to hit his spots and he wasn’t doing that in his first start. Until he can show better command, avoid him in all leagues. Rating = 4
- Drew Hutchison – Unlike Sabathia, Hutchison appears to be trending upward. He looked very solid in his first start of the season. He threw 5 shutout innings against the Rays and struck out 4 batters. He’s still not a pitcher that I am trusting against a solid lineup though and with the total of this game set at 9.0 runs, it may be best to avoid both pitchers here. Hutchison is still a relatively inexperienced pitcher that will be facing one of the most experienced (old) lineups in baseball. Rating = 4
Batter Grind Down
New York
- Jacoby Ellsbury – It only took 5 games into the season before Mark Teixeira got hurt. Not that it affects Ellbury’s fantasy value, but I wanted to point in out in case you were considering rostering him today. Ellsbury hit for a .328 batting average against RH pitching last season and led the league in stolen bases. Great matchup against the RH pitcher Hutchison.
Toronto
- Jose Bautista – Joey Bats has not hit for a high average over the last two seasons, but when he makes contact, he hits the ball a long ways. Sabathia gave up a .352 wOBA to RH batters last season and that average may be even higher this season.
- Edwin Encarnacion – E5 is off to a very slow start this season, but this is a nice time to buy low. He hit for an OPS of .858 against LH pitching last season and like I mentioned earlier, this is not a CC in his prime. The Blue Jays bats are worth targeting in your lineups.
Baltimore at Detroit
| Baltimore | Detroit |
| Chris Tillman | Vegas Moneyline | Justin Verlander | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | DET (-170) | RIGHT | 7.5 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.247 | 0.738 | 0.327 | 19.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.237 | 0.657 | 0.295 | 24.0% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.232 | 0.706 | 0.311 | 24.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.275 | 0.728 | 0.325 | 22.7% |
| Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Chris Tillman – Tillman pitched well in his first start of the season, but only managed to pitch 5 innings and only struck out 4 batters. Tillman draws a very tough matchup today against the Tigers who have one of the best offenses in baseball. Tillman is a large underdog (+155) that should be avoided in all leagues today. There are certainly better options at his price point that have a better chance of picking up a win. Rating = 4
- Justin Verlander – The Tigers pitching staff is off to a rocky start. Verlander was subpar in his first start of the season as he gave up 2 earned runs and only struck out 2 batters over 6 innings of work. The Royals are a team that doesn’t K often though so I expect his strikeout numbers to be much higher in his 2nd start. Verlander is a big favorite in what is expected to be a low scoring game. He may not be the top option on the board, but he’s close. Rating = 8
Batter Grind Down
Baltimore
- J.J. Hardy – I don’t recommend Hardy in cash games, but he does make an interesting tournament play. Hardy does not hit a ton of HR’s, but he has 3 HR’s off of Verlander in only 31 career at bats against him. He will be a low owned contrarian play that could pay off in a GPP.
Detroit
- Miguel Cabrera – There are few days in the MLB season that Miggy doesn’t make a good play and today is not one of them. Tillman gave up a .311 wOBA to RH batters last season and Miggy crushes all pitching. He’s already 6/16 this season with a HR.
Cincinnati at NY Mets
| Cincinnati | NY Mets |
| Alfredo Simon | Vegas Moneyline | Jonathon Niese | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | CIN (-114) | LEFT | 7.5 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.225 | 0.707 | 0.325 | 16.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.239 | 0.645 | 0.295 | 16.4% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.206 | 0.514 | 0.249 | 18.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.294 | 0.757 | 0.340 | 17.1% |
| Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs L | Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Alfredo Simon – Simon will be making his first start since 2011. He came out of the bullpen last season and posted a 2.87 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP. While those numbers may be impressive for a starter, they aren’t anything spectacular out of the bullpen. I do however, like his matchup against the Mets in Citi Field which surrendered the 2nd fewest runs of any ballpark last season. He makes a nice tournament play. Rating = 5
- Jonathon Niese – Niese has always been a pitcher that has pitched well in front of his home crowd and then hasn’t been able to carry that same success with him on the road. Last season Niese posted a 2.70 ERA with a K/9 of 6.4 in 14 starts at home. Citi Field is a pitcher’s paradise and the lefty Niese should be able to neutralize the powerful LH bats of Joey Votto and Jay Bruce. Rating = 6
Batter Grind Down
Cincinnati
- Brandon Phillips – Last season Niese gave up a .340 wOBA to RH batters and Phillips has always hit LH pitching well. Phillips homered in Citi Field yesterday and makes a solid play at 2B.
New York
- Curtis Granderson – Granderson hit his first HR as a member of the Mets yesterday and will look to homer in back to back games today against Simon who gave up a .325 wOBA to RH batters last season. Granderson swings for the fences, but makes a nice play on sites that don’t negate for strike-outs.
San Diego at Miami
| San Diego | Miami |
| Ian Kennedy | Vegas Moneyline | Nathan Eovaldi | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | MIA (-120) | RIGHT | 7.5 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.265 | 0.824 | 0.360 | 21.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.246 | 0.657 | 0.307 | 15.0% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.253 | 0.704 | 0.329 | 19.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.251 | 0.685 | 0.305 | 19.1% |
| Batter Splits | SDP BvP | SDP vs R | Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Ian Kennedy – At this point it doesn’t look like anyone is going to be able to slow down the Marlins’ bats. Their offense is firing on all cylinders right now and I’m not sure I want to target any pitcher that comes in their path until they cool off. Kennedy struggled on the road last season with a 5.64 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. He could make a decent tournament play, but I will not have any exposure to him today. Rating = 5
- Nathan Eovaldi – Eovaldi looked good in his first start and some of our readers definitely pointed out that Eovaldi actually has one of the best velocities in the MLB. He has a pretty nice matchup against the Padres at home and could be in line for a win if he can get even half of the run support that this offense has been providing to the other starters. Eovaldi is one of the top pitcher value plays on the board. Rating = 6
Batter Grind Down
San Diego
- This Padres offense has been slumping to start the season and this game will be played in a pitcher’s ballpark. The total for this game is set at only 7.5 runs and there aren’t any batters that stand out to me here.
Miami
- Giancarlo Stanton – Stanton is off to a blazing start this season. He is 9/25 with 11 RBI’s and 7 runs while only striking out 4 times. Stanton is a streaky player that should continue to be targeted until he cools off. The LH bats of the Marlins are also in play today as Kennedy gave up a .360 wOBA to LH batters last season.
MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2
