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MLB Grind Down: Sunday, May 4th

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2014-05-04 14:34:05

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Tampa Bay at NY Yankees

Tampa Bay NY Yankees
Erik Bedard Vegas Moneyline CC Sabathia Vegas Over/Under
LEFT NYY (-145) LEFT 9.0
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.306 0.809 0.364 18.0% SP vs. Left 0.234 0.632 0.292 29.7%
SP vs. Right 0.247 0.746 0.334 20.9% SP vs. Right 0.283 0.799 0.352 17.5%
Batter Splits TBR BvP pop up 2 TBR vs L pop up 2 Batter Splits NYY BvP pop up 2 NYY vs L pop up 2
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Erik Bedard – The battle of the old lefties takes place at Yankee Stadium today as Bedard faces off against Sabathia. Bedard comes in with a 5.52 ERA and has yet to make it passed the 5th inning. His WHIP is a terrible 1.84 and has struggled to get each out. Bedard is allowing LH bats a .364 wOBA, so this Yankees squad will be dangerous for him from top to bottom. Rating = 2

C.C. Sabathia – I discussed the fact that Sabathia’s velocity on his fastball is at a career low and he has had to hit his spots in order to get batters out. So far, he has not shown the ability to do this as he comes in with a 5.11 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. He is striking guys out, interestingly enough, at a career best 9.97 K/9. I can see the appeal of using him as a GPP play, but with the numbers the Rays have put up against Sabathia in his career, I would avoid him. Rating = 3

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Evan Longoria – I really don’t know if I have to say much other than the fact that Longo is 23 for 56 with 6 home runs against Sabathia. The guy has his number and continues to mash any LH pitcher in sight.

New York Yankees

Alfonso Soriano – Soriano is always a great play when he gets a subpar LH pitcher on the mound. Soriano is hitting .316 with a .632 SLG against lefties so far this year and continues to hit them for the majority of his power.

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland

Chicago White Sox Cleveland
Andre Rienzo Vegas Moneyline Corey Kluber Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT CLE (-153) RIGHT 8.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.248 0.760 0.337 15.3% SP vs. Left 0.282 0.744 0.331 22.1%
SP vs. Right 0.248 0.742 0.342 14.3% SP vs. Right 0.271 0.700 0.315 22.0%
Batter Splits CHW BvP pop up 2 CHW vs R pop up 2 Batter Splits CLE BvP pop up 2 CLE vs R pop up 2
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Andre Rienzo – Rienzo has been an average big league pitcher this year allowing 4 and 2 earned runs in his first two starts. He is tough to pick at this point in his career as he only went past 6 innings pitched once in his 2 year career and holds a low K/9 at 5.97. Rating = 3

Corey Kluber – Kluber has had a poor year so far with one game of brilliance mixed in. Knowing the possibilities of his stuff, Kluber makes a good GPP play due to his ability to strike guys out and should be in line for the win due to Rienzo on the mound for the Sox. He is tough to trust due to the fact that he has allowed less than 3 earned runs in only 2 out of his first 6 starts, but is a heavy favorite today (-153). Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Jose Abreu – Abreu had one of the best power April’s ever and the momentum has continued into May. He is a GPP play today as he gets a RH matchup, but it is clear he could go yard against anyone.

Cleveland

Carlos Santana – With Kipnis going to the DL, Santana moves up a spot in the order and gets to bat cleanup. Santana has had a rough start to the year, but his price his down and should be in position to drive home a few runs.

LA Dodgers at Miami

LA Dodgers Miami
Stephen Fife Vegas Moneyline Jose Fernandez Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT MIA (-175) RIGHT 7.0
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.336 0.814 0.373 18.2% SP vs. Left 0.198 0.561 0.262 26.5%
SP vs. Right 0.263 0.760 0.349 16.5% SP vs. Right 0.160 0.445 0.206 31.9%
Batter Splits LAD BvP pop up 2 LAD vs R pop up 2 Batter Splits MIA BvP pop up 2 MIA vs R pop up 2
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Stephen Fife – Fife is getting the call up today and has been decent in the previous 2 year when being called up. Fife did allow 7 home runs last year in 10 starts and and wOBA of .373 against LH batters. There are plenty of options today that we can simply look for another regardless of Fife’s price. Rating = 3

Jose Fernandez – Fernandez has been not only been an ace of his staff, but one of the best pitchers in the league this year. He is holding a 1.59 ERA and an .83 WHIP while allowing batters to hit a ridiculous .174 against him. Add this to the fact that he has not allowed a run in his last 3 starts and brings a 12+ K/9 to the plate and he makes for a top pitching option on the day. Rating = 10

Batter Grind Down

Los Angeles Dodgers

Look somewhere else today unless you want to go really contrarian. Fernandez has been too good to trust that strategy today though.

Miami

Giancarlo Stanton – His price is high, but if you can afford him I could see him going off today against Fife. Fife has been troubled a bit by the long ball and Stanton already has 8 bombs and 33 RBIs.

San Francisco at Atlanta

San Francisco Atlanta
Madison Bumgarner Vegas Moneyline Alex Wood Vegas Over/Under
LEFT ATL (-130) LEFT 7.0
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.195 0.543 0.247 35.9% SP vs. Left 0.280 0.635 0.291 26.9%
SP vs. Right 0.228 0.629 0.290 21.4% SP vs. Right 0.252 0.668 0.300 22.3%
Batter Splits SFG BvP pop up 2 SFG vs L pop up 2 Batter Splits ATL BvP pop up 2 ATL vs L pop up 2
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Madison Bumgarner – Bumgarner has had a rough string of games of late losing 3 in a row and giving up 9 runs. Even though he carries a 1.74 WHIP, he has held teams from scoring runs, as his ERA seems low at 3.74. Bumgarner simply hasn’t been an force on the mound and is not safe to take in any leagues today. Rating = 4

Alex Wood – Wood is coming up a terrible outing in Miami as he gave up 7 earned runs in 5 innings of work. Even with this outing, Wood still has an ERA of 2.93 in 40 innings of work. He also has a respectable 8.33 K/9, but his fantasy value is hampered by the fact that the Giants have a lot of bats that hit well against lefties. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Buster Posey – Wood has been a bit of a reverse splits pitcher in his short career, but how Posey hits LH pitching is tops at the position. Posey has also been heating up as of late with 9 in his last 6 games and 2 home runs.

Atlanta

Justin Upton – Bumgarner is allowing RH hitters to hit wOBA off of him so far this year. Upton has had a tremendous start to the year. He has been one of the best bats in this Atlanta lineup and has hit 3 of his 8 home runs in the last 4 games.

Toronto at Pittsburgh

Toronto Pittsburgh
Dustin McGowan Vegas Moneyline Edinson Volquez Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT PIT (-125) RIGHT 8.0
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.233 0.715 0.332 17.5% SP vs. Left 0.290 0.809 0.359 17.4%
SP vs. Right 0.244 0.678 0.315 20.0% SP vs. Right 0.259 0.730 0.328 17.7%
Batter Splits TOR BvP pop up 2 TOR vs R pop up 2 Batter Splits PIT BvP pop up 2 PIT vs R pop up 2
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Dustin McGowan – McGowan has a 5.61 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP in his first 5 starts. He does not pitch deep into games and strikes out at a very low rate. He can be safely avoided facing Pittsburgh today. Rating = 3

Edinson Volquez – Just when some people thought it was safe to trust Vol-train, he came out and had a terrible 6 earned run outing against the Cardinals. He will look to rebound today against a very good Blue Jays offense. Even though Volquez has kept hitters at bay allowing a .230 AVG against him, his 18 strike outs in 33.2 innings of play really hampers his fantasy potential. Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Melky Cabrera – Edinson has been pitching well, but Cabrera has had a great start of the season from both sides of the plate. He is currently hitting .336 and has hit for power with 5 home runs. If Edinson has a bad game, Melky will have a lot to do with it.

Pittsburgh

Pedro Alvarez – As always, Alvarez is the perfect boom or bust play when facing a struggling RH pitcher. His .204 AVG is a problem for cash games, but his 7 home runs make him a great GPP play.

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

About the Author

Ryan138
Ryan138

Ryan (Ryan138) is from Chicago and has been playing fantasy sports for over 10 years. He has been playing daily fantasy sports for over 2 years since he was introduced to Daily Joust in late 2010. In the last year, Ryan has risen into the Top 100 of the RotoGrinders leaderboards by playing at DraftDay, DraftKings and FanDuel in all the major sports.