MLB Grind Down: Thursday, April 10th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Oakland at Minnesota
| Oakland | Minnesota |
| Dan Straily | Vegas Moneyline | Mike Pelfrey | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | OAK (-138) | RIGHT | 8.5 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.244 | 0.707 | 0.316 | 17.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.270 | 0.755 | 0.336 | 16.1% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.221 | 0.595 | 0.279 | 21.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.337 | 0.808 | 0.361 | 13.3% |
| Batter Splits | OAK BvP  | OAK vs R | Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Dan Straily – Straily struggled on the road last season with a 4.11 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP, but does have a nice K/9 of 7.34. If Straily can work around the LH batters of the Twins, he should be in for a nice outing as he held RH batters to a .279 wOBA last season. Straily should also rack up the strikeouts against this weak Twins lineup. Straily is a decent favorite here and should get plenty of run support with Pelfrey on the mound for the Twins. Rating = 6
- Mike Pelfrey – Pelfrey is not a great pitcher to target in daily fantasy baseball because he has a high ERA (5.19 last season) and a low K-rate (5.9). Pelfrey gave up 3 earned runs over 5 innings of work in his first start and I’m expecting a similar outing from him today. Pelfrey gave up a wOBA of at least .336 to both RH and LH batters last season and should be avoided in all leagues. Rating = 3
Batter Grind Down
Oakland
- Brandon Moss – Once again we have Moss facing a weak RH pitcher. The A’s are one of my favorite teams to employ a mini stack with and Moss will lead the charge. Moss is batting .310 this season with 9 RBI’s. Moss hit for a .901 OPS against RH pitching last season and makes a great play once again.
- Josh Donaldson – Pelfrey gave up a .361 wOBA to RH batters last season and Donaldson has really played well in this series with 4 hits and 3 runs in the first two games. Donaldson is a bit cheaper than some of the other big names at 3B, but has a terrific matchup against Pelfrey.
Minnesota
- Joe Mauer – Mauer has yet to record an RBI this season, but he is batting .281 and has already scored 6 runs. As mentioned above, Straily is not great against LH batters as he gave up a .316 wOBA to lefties last season. Mauer is the only Twins’ bat that you should be targeting in cash games.
Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs
| Pittsburgh | Chicago Cubs |
| Gerrit Cole | Vegas Moneyline | Travis Wood | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | PIT (-130) | LEFT | 8.5 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.250 | 0.605 | 0.275 | 22.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.207 | 0.577 | 0.274 | 22.7% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.255 | 0.648 | 0.294 | 20.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.226 | 0.646 | 0.292 | 15.9% |
| Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs L | Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Gerrit Cole – The wind is Wrigley is blowing out to right, but it is a light wind and shouldn’t affect the scoring today. Cole is one of my favorite pitchers to target today. In his last 13 starts, Cole has an ERA under 3.00 with a K/9 close to 10. The Cubs lineup looks awfully soft today and Cole shouldn’t have too much trouble with it if he can work around Rizzo and Schierholtz. Rating = 9
- Travis Wood – Wood pitched well at Wrigley last season with a 3.39 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. Wood is one of those pitchers that is hard to target in cash games though because he doesn’t get very much run support from the weak Cubs offense. The Pirates are a team that hits LH pitching well and even though I don’t expect a ton of runs to be scored here, I will not be targeting Wood in any cash games. Rating = 4
Batter Grind Down
Pittsburgh
- Andrew McCutchen – Cutch is off to a slow start, but part of that is due to the fact that he only has 1 at bat against a LH pitcher. Cutch hit for a .388 average with a 1.13 OPS against LH pitching last season. He has great power against lefties and makes a nice play at a time where his price has come down a bit.
Chicago
- This Cubs lineup leaves much to be desired. With Cole pitching at an extremely high level, I will be avoiding all Cubbies today. Last season Cole held LH and RH batters to an impressive .287 wOBA.
Miami at Washington
| Miami | Washington |
| Tom Koehler | Vegas Moneyline | Stephen Strasburg | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | WAS (-225) | RIGHT | 7.5 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.235 | 0.703 | 0.316 | 14.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.218 | 0.622 | 0.287 | 22.8% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.283 | 0.780 | 0.350 | 15.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.197 | 0.523 | 0.251 | 29.2% |
| Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs R | Batter Splits | WSN BvP | WSN vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Tom Koehler – To my recollection, we haven’t seen any pitchers as a +200 underdog yet this season. That changes today with Koehler taking the mound opposite Strasburg. Koehler is your average run of the mill pitcher that will have an extremely tough time getting any run support. Koehler posted a 4.41 ERA with a K/9 of 5.8 last season. He has limited upside and will likely end up taking a loss. Rating = 2
- Stephen Strasburg – Strasburg is the top pitching option across the industry today. If you are playing in cash games, you should start your lineups with Strasburg. Last season Strasburg posted a 1.73 ERA at home with a 0.87 WHIP and a K/9 of 9.8 in 15 starts at Nationals Park. After Zimmermann got blasted by the Marlins, you are probably thinking that you want to have nothing to do with the Marlins bats, but don’t over-think this one. Strasburg is the biggest favorite on the board (-220) for a reason. Rating = 10
Batter Grind Down
Miami
- When I said that it’s not a great long-term strategy to take batters against top notch pitchers, it can obviously pay off every once in a while like last night against Zimmermann. That said, we have to make the best decisions with the information available to us and all signs point to a dominant performance from Strasburg.
Washington
- Bryce Harper – Harper was a recommended play yesterday and finally hit his first HR of the season. He should move back up in the batting order tonight as the Nats are facing the RH Koehler. Harper is one of the most powerful hitters in baseball when he is locked in and it appears that he has his confidence back.
- Ryan Zimmerman – Zimmerman is off to a hot start this season batting .375 with a HR. He has the splits in his favor tonight as last season he was better at home (.310 average) and against RH pitching (.280 average). Koehler gave up a .350 wOBA to RH batters last season. Zimmerman is a solid play at 3B.
Boston at NY Yankees
| Boston | NY Yankees |
| Clay Buchholz | Vegas Moneyline | Michael Pineda | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | BOS (-105) | RIGHT | 8.5 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.187 | 0.536 | 0.245 | 23.7% | SP vs. Left | | | | |
| SP vs. Right | 0.216 | 0.553 | 0.255 | 22.3% | SP vs. Right | | | | |
| Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs R | Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Clay Buchholz – This is a very interesting pitching matchup as both of these pitchers are ace-caliber pitchers, yet there are usually plenty of runs scored when these two teams meet up. The total for this game is set at 8.5 runs and I wouldn’t be surprised to see these teams top that run total. Buchholz had an incredible season last year, but never could regain his early season form after his injury. He got off to a rough start to this season by giving up 13 hits and 6 earned runs in only 4 innings against the Rangers. Until he can prove that he is back to his early 2013 form, he should be avoided. Rating = 4
- Michael Pineda – I’ve been waiting for Pineda to pitch in a Yankees’ uniform for quite some time now and he didn’t disappoint in his first start since 2011. He struck out 5 batters while only giving up 1 earned run in 6 innings of work against the Blue Jays. Pineda should be in for a strong year if he can stay healthy, but he is still a question mark as he only has 1 start under his belt in the last 3 years. I don’t like to target many pitchers against the Red Sox, especially ones with question marks. Rating = 5
Batter Grind Down
Boston
- David Ortiz – We have to go back quite a long way to check out Pineda’s splits. In 2011, he gave up a considerably higher wOBA and OPS to LH batters. Ortiz hit a big 3-run HR last night and looks primed for another monster season. I never mind taking LH batters in Yankee Stadium with that short porch in right.
New York
- Jacoby Ellsbury – It’s really hard to trust the numbers that Buccholz put up last season because he just hasn’t been that same dominant pitcher. Ellsbury is off to a red hot start for the Yankees as he is batting .364 with 4 SB’s. I love that he is batting 3rd this season and we should see his RBI totals go up.
Milwaukee at Philadelphia
| Milwaukee | Philadelphia |
| Marco Estrada | Vegas Moneyline | Cliff Lee | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | PHI (-125) | LEFT | 7.5 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.214 | 0.642 | 0.287 | 23.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.210 | 0.515 | 0.246 | 19.7% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.242 | 0.684 | 0.300 | 22.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.239 | 0.658 | 0.287 | 27.1% |
| Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs L | Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Marco Estrada – While Estrada is a very solid pitcher, I had to do a double-take when I first saw the line of this game. Lee is a very small favorite at home at -125. I projected him to maybe be in the -150 range. With that in mind, Estrada could make for a very nice tournament play. Estrada posted a 3.87 ERA with a K/9 of 8.3 last season. Estrada looked good in his first start this season and really pitched well on the road a year ago. He will not be a pitcher that is highly owned, but he has a nice outlook against the Phillies. Rating = 7
- Cliff Lee – Lee is one of those pitchers that either seems to pitch an 8 inning shutout or get blown up for 8 runs like he did in the season opener. Lee has posted a 2.87 ERA last season and still has one of the best K/9 rates in baseball at 9.0. The Brewers are a team that hits LH pitching well and Lee has given up at least 10 hits in each of his first two starts this season. My heart is telling me to take Lee, but the numbers suggest otherwise. I think Dickey may make the better play in the late leagues. Rating = 7
Batter Grind Down
Milwaukee
- Ryan Braun – Braun has really enjoyed his stay in Philly. In the first two games of the series he has 4 hits (3 HR’s and a triple), 4 runs, and 9 RBI’s. Braun has great numbers off of Lee is his career too which never hurts (10/23 with 3 HR’s).
Philadelphia
- Estrada held both LH and RH batters to a .300 wOBA or lower last season and sports a very nice K-rate. The Phillies lineup has been cold of late and there aren’t any plays that stand out here.
MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2
