MLB Grind Down: Thursday, April 10th - Page 2

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-04-10 20:58:26

Houston at Toronto

Houston					Toronto
Dallas Keuchel		Vegas Moneyline			R.A. Dickey		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		TOR (-220)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.275	0.738	0.332	27.8%	SP vs. Left	0.255	0.760	0.335	17.4%
SP vs. Right	0.304	0.825	0.366	15.0%	SP vs. Right	0.228	0.664	0.302	20.4%
Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs R		Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Dallas Keuchel – There are a lot of reasons not to take Keuchel tonight. He is facing a very tough Blue Jays lineup in a very hitter friendly Rogers Center. Keuchel posted a 5.15 ERA last season and was hit hard by the Angels in his first start this year. Keuchel is the 2nd largest underdog on the schedule today and should be avoided in all leagues. Rating = 1

• R.A. Dickey – Dickey is a very interesting play tonight against the Astros. Dickey is one of those pitchers that can dominate lineups when he has command of his knuckle ball, but he can also find himself in sticky situations when his command is off and he is walking batters. The Astros are a very strikeout happy team in general though and Dickey should be able to fan 7+ batters tonight. It also doesn’t hurt that Keuchel is the opposite starter which means plenty of run support for Dickey. Rating = 8

Batter Grind Down

Houston

• Marc Krauss – Krauss is minimum salary across the board tonight and picked up his two first hits of the season last night. When it comes to a knuckle-baller, you really have to throw the splits out and just look at whether a player can hit the knuckle ball or not. It’s an extremely small sample size, but Krauss is 2/3 with a HR off of Dickey. He’s not a bad play for minimum salary.

• Additional Plays: Jose Altuve

Toronto –

• Jose Bautista – Plenty of options on Toronto tonight. Don’t be afraid to use a mini-stack here. Bautista already has 4 HR’s, 6 RBI’s, and 9 runs this season and has great power against LH pitching. Keuchel gave up a .366 wOBA to RH batters last season.

• Melky Cabrera – I could just copy and paste the reasoning for Bautista here. Cabrera crushes LH pitching and Keuchel really struggles against RH batters. Melky also give you a nice combination of speed and power.

• Additional Plays: Edwin Encarnacion, Brett Lawrie, Dioner Navarro

NY Mets at Atlanta

NY Mets					Atlanta
Jenrry Mejia		Vegas Moneyline			David Hale		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		ATL (-138)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.261	0.683	0.300	16.7%	SP vs. Left	0.300	0.683	0.305	28.6%
SP vs. Right	0.276	0.609	0.263	29.7%	SP vs. Right	0.200	0.480	0.208	32.0%
Batter Splits	NYM BvP		NYM vs R		Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jenrry Mejia – In his last 5 major league starts, Mejia has posted an ERA just over 2.00 with an impressive K/9 of 9.5. He has a tough matchup against the Braves, but Turner Field is generally considered a pitcher-friendly ballpark. The total of this game is set at only 7.5 and Mejia is a small underdog. The main concern here is a lack of run support. He does make an intriguing tournament play though. Rating = 6

• David Hale – Hale is an impressive young RH pitcher. He only has 16 innings under his belt, but has only given up 1 earned run while striking out 18 batters. Hale is very cheap on FD today and is probably the best value that you are going to find on that site. He has a great matchup against this Mets offense that often forgets to bring their bats to the batter’s box. Rating = 7

Batter Grind Down

New York

• David Wright – Wright is the one batter that I will be targeting from the Mets tonight. He is one of the best hitters in baseball and will take advantage of any little mistake that Hale makes against him. Wright hit for a .296 average with 29 XBH’s against RH pitching last season.

• Additional Plays: None

Atlanta

• Freddie Freeman – Freeman is really seeing the ball well right now. On the season he is batting .407 with 4 RBI’s. Freeman has the splits in his favor tonight against the RH Mejia and makes a great play at 1B if you can afford him.

• Additional Plays: Jason Heyward

Cleveland at Chicago White Sox

Cleveland					Chicago White Sox
Danny Salazar		Vegas Moneyline			John Danks		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		CLE (-117)			LEFT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.216	0.584	0.267	30.7%	SP vs. Left	0.293	0.825	0.360	14.4%
SP vs. Right	0.237	0.730	0.317	30.9%	SP vs. Right	0.270	0.778	0.340	15.6%
Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs L		Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CHW vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Danny Salazar – Salazar struggled in his first start, but it was in some very windy conditions and he just couldn’t seem to throw strikes. I expect a much better outing from him tonight against the White Sox. Last season Salazar posted a 3.12 ERA with a K/9 of 11.2. The White Sox lineup is not intimidating by any means and even though this is basically a pick ‘em game, Salazar is the better pitching option of the two starters. Rating = 7

• John Danks – Danks pitched well in his first start of the season, but is still a pitcher with a career ERA well over 4.00. He boats a pretty average K/9 of 5.8 and faces an Indians lineup that really provides some tough outs. Danks is a little too risky for cash games tonight. Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

• Ryan Raburn – Raburn makes a terrific punt play tonight as he is close to minimum salary across the board and typically bats 5th in the lineup against LH pitching. Raburn hit for a .308 average with 19 XBH’s off of LH pitching last season and does have 3 career HR’s off of Danks.

• Additional Plays: Carlos Santana

Chicago

• Dayan Viciedo – I like Viciedo as a tournament play today. He has a lot of power and Salazar did give up a .317 wOBA to RH batters last season. He is a boom or bust type of play, but could pay off in a GPP.

• Additional Plays:

Arizona at San Francisco

Arizona					San Francisco
Randall Delgado		Vegas Moneyline			Ryan Vogelsong		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		SFG (-136)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.260	0.761	0.330	17.0%	SP vs. Left	0.266	0.731	0.323	18.1%
SP vs. Right	0.268	0.813	0.354	16.5%	SP vs. Right	0.327	0.902	0.406	11.3%
Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs R		Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SFG vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Randall Delgado – Delgado has had an ERA over 4.00 throughout his career and really got off to a rocky start this season. Granted, it was against the Rockies in Coors Field, but he is still not a pitcher that I will be targeting tonight. Delgado is a +126 underdog tonight and faces a Giants lineup that has been red hot to start the season. Rating = 4

• Ryan Vogelsong – To say that Vogelsong’s last two seasons were polar opposites would be an understatement. His ERA went up by more than 2.00 last season and he does not appear to be trending in the right direction. Vogelsong gave up 4 earned runs in only 4 innings of work in his first start of the season and should be avoided until he can prove that he can get back to that 2012 form. Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

• Paul Goldschmidt – Goldschmidt is off to a terrific start this season batting .381 with 2 HR’s and 8 RBI’s. Goldy is locked in right now and his matchup against Vogelsong who gave up a .406 wOBA to RH batters last season does not scare me at all.

• Additional Plays: Aaron Hill, Gerardo Parra, Miguel Montero

San Francisco

• Buster Posey – I don’t believe we will see Posey get the day off. While he has played in 5 straight games, the Giants had Monday off. The lineup should be out soon which will solve that problem for us. Posey is locked in right now and Delgado is one of those reverse split pitchers that gives up a higher average and OPS to RH batters.

• Additional Plays: Brandon Belt, Hunter Pence, Angel Pagan