MLB Grind Down: Thursday, July 10th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-07-10 20:29:54

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati

Chicago Cubs					Cincinnati
Kyle Hendricks		Vegas Moneyline			Homer Bailey		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		CIN (-180)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left					SP vs. Left	0.277	0.762	0.342	20.3%
SP vs. Right					SP vs. Right	0.220	0.604	0.274	24.8%
Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs R		Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Kyle Hendricks – Hendricks will make his major league debut tonight. He’s a 24 year old right-hander that has posted a 3.59 ERA with 97 K’s over 102 innings of work. If he pitches well tonight, he’ll likely stick around in the rotation so there’s a lot at stake for him. That said, he’s not a top prospect and he draws a tough matchup against the Reds in the very small Great American Ballpark. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5100 FD, $11855 DS, $8750 DD, $5600 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Homer Bailey – If you are playing in the early slate, Bailey is looking like the clear #1 target. He’s pitched well over his last 8 starts and he has a favorable matchup against the Cubs who are ranked 28th in wOBA against RH pitching. The Cubs also strike out at a 22.1% rate against righties. Bailey has 23 K’s over his last 3 starts and should have another quality outing in this one. Rating = 8

Salaries: $8800 FD, $17927 DS, $16000 DD, $9100 DK, $98900 FF, $23700 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Anthony Rizzo – Rizzo homered again last night which was his 3rd HR of the series. Bailey has struggled to keep the ball in the park at times and Rizzo makes a nice GPP play. He’s the only Cubs’ hitter worth rostering though.

Additional Plays: None

Cincinnati

Jay Bruce – It’s always tough to predict what to expect out of call-ups that are making their major-league debuts. That said, Vegas expects a nice offensive outburst from the Reds and Bruce has a nice lefty/righty matchup. Bruce has been swinging a hot bat with 6 hits and 3 HR’s over the last 5 games.

Additional Plays: Billy Hamilton, Devin Mesoraco

Philadelphia at Milwaukee

Philadelphia					Milwaukee
David Buchanan		Vegas Moneyline			Matt Garza		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		MIL (-200)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.253	0.660	0.309	9.7%	SP vs. Left	0.257	0.698	0.313	20.9%
SP vs. Right	0.279	0.847	0.375	18.7%	SP vs. Right	0.238	0.654	0.295	18.7%
Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs R		Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• David Buchanan – Buchanan is not a recommended fantasy option. He owns a 4.82 ERA this season and he’s given up a .375 wOBA to RH hitters. That does not bode well for his matchup tonight against the Brewers in Miller Park. Buchanan is one of the biggest underdogs on the board and can safely be avoided in all leagues. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5300 FD, $7556 DS, $11450 DD, $6200 DK, $62900 FF, $14200 SS, $NA FTD

• Matt Garza – Garza gets a nice fantasy boost today thanks to Buchanan. He’s one of the biggest favorites and should see plenty of run support which means he’ll likely be in line for the win. Garza’s strikeout numbers have been all over the map this season, but he’s coming off of a complete game, 9 strikeout performance against the Reds. I think he may give up a couple of runs, but I like his chances of picking up the win and 5+ K’s along the way. Rating = 6

Salaries: $8200 FD, $17077 DS, $15600 DD, $8100 DK, $104300 FF, $23300 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Chase Utley – Utley only has 9 HR’s on the season, but two of them have come in this series. Utley is a perfect fit for Miller Park because his short, compact swing is more than enough to carry the ball out of the park. He has a .359 wOBA against RH pitching and a nice matchup against the hittable Garza.

Additional Plays: Jimmy Rollins

Milwaukee

Jonathan Lucroy – Lucroy got the day off yesterday, but should be back in the lineup today against Buchanan. Lucroy has a .399 wOBA against RH pitching and a great matchup against Buchanan who has struggled vs. RH hitters.

Additional Plays: Carlos Gomez, Aramis Ramirez, Jean Segura

Oakland at San Francisco

Oakland					San Francisco
Scott Kazmir		Vegas Moneyline			Tim Hudson		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		SFG (-110)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.238	0.595	0.268	23.0%	SP vs. Left	0.249	0.679	0.307	13.9%
SP vs. Right	0.243	0.698	0.312	23.8%	SP vs. Right	0.237	0.596	0.267	20.6%
Batter Splits	OAK BvP		OAK vs R		Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SFG vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Scott Kazmir – Kazmir seems to be under-owned every time he takes the mound despite being an extremely consistent fantasy option this season. He’s posted a 2.53 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP and a K/9 of 8.1. While the Giants are pretty good against LH pitching this season (10th in wOBA vs. lefties), I like the upside that Kazmir provides, especially for the price. Kazmir’s K-rate gives him the edge over Hudson in this matchup. Rating = 7

Salaries: $8900 FD, $18854 DS, $17450 DD, $8500 DK, $109400 FF, $25000 SS, $NA FTD

• Tim Hudson – Hudson has to be proud of the work he has done in the first half of the season. He has posted a 2.53 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP. He’s not the highest strikeout pitcher in baseball (5.9 per 9 innings), but he gets the job done. He’s usually on my fantasy radar when pitching at home, but the A’s are a team that I do not like to take pitchers against. They work the count and they draw walks. Plus, they are ranked 5th in wOBA against RH pitching. For that reason, I’m avoiding Hudson tonight. Rating = 6

Salaries: $7500 FD, $15393 DS, $17200 DD, $8400 DK, $80800 FF, $24300 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Stephen Vogt – While I won’t be targeting Hudson, I won’t be taking many hitters against him either. That said, I like Vogt as a value play at Catcher. Vogt just continues to mash RH pitching. He has a .408 batting average and a .444 wOBA against righties this season.

Additional Plays: None

San Francisco

Buster Posey – Even though Kazmir is one of the top LH pitchers in baseball (well in the top tier at least), Posey is still in play. He’s always hit LH pitching well and that trend has continued this season as Posey is boasting a .381 wOBA against southpaws.

Additional Plays: None

Chicago White Sox at Boston

Chicago White Sox					Boston
Jose Quintana		Vegas Moneyline			Jon Lester		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		BOS (-157)			LEFT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.248	0.681	0.302	22.0%	SP vs. Left	0.242	0.667	0.294	27.0%
SP vs. Right	0.247	0.672	0.301	19.7%	SP vs. Right	0.251	0.679	0.306	19.7%
Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CHW vs L		Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jose Quintana – Quintana is quietly enjoying a terrific season. He’s posted a 3.20 ERA with 100 K’s over 112 innings of work. He’s been very sharp in his last 3 starts as he’s struck out a combined 25 batters while only giving up a single earned run. We’ve seen pitchers come into Fenway and dominate the Red Sox this season and it wouldn’t surprise me if that happened again today. He’s not a cash game play, but offers great upside in GPP’s. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7800 FD, $19554 DS, $14900 DD, $7900 DK, $103700 FF, $24600 SS, $NA FTD

• Jon Lester – Despite the constant lack of run support that the Red Sox give their starters, I think Lester is a terrific play tonight. He owns a 2.24 ERA at home this season with 67 K’s over 60 innings of work. If he can pitch around Jose Abreu, he should have another quality start today. The White Sox as a team are ranked 26th in wOBA against LH pitching with the 4th highest strikeout rate against lefties. Rating = 8

Salaries: $9500 FD, $21207 DS, $19500 DD, $9900 DK, $120600 FF, $28000 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Jose Abreu – Abreu continues to do what he does best and that’s hit HR’s. While 21 of his 28 HR’s have come off of RH pitching, he still owns a .375 wOBA against southpaws. Target him in the early slate GPP’s.

Additional Plays: None

Boston

Dustin Pedroia – I keep going back to the well with this one. Pedroia’s bat is finally starting to heat up and he gets to face his specialty today with Quintana being a lefty. Pedroia has 16 hits over his last 10 games and a .359 wOBA against southpaws.

Additional Plays: Mike Napoli

Washington at Baltimore

Washington					Baltimore
Gio Gonzalez		Vegas Moneyline			Wei-Yin Chen		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		WAS (-120)			LEFT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.218	0.600	0.271	27.5%	SP vs. Left	0.269	0.739	0.328	17.2%
SP vs. Right	0.232	0.674	0.304	22.8%	SP vs. Right	0.279	0.779	0.342	17.7%
Batter Splits	WSN BvP		WSN vs L		Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Gio Gonzalez – Gonzalez hasn’t given up an earned run in three straight starts. While that’s certainly impressive, he’s going to have a tough time keeping that streak alive tonight against the Orioles in Camden Yards. Not only is this a favorable hitter’s park, but the Orioles are ranked 8th in wOBA against lefties and have two bats (Cruz and Jones) that can turn a good start into a bad start with one swing. Gio is overpriced for his matchup. Rating = 5

Salaries: $9300 FD, $21029 DS, $17000 DD, $10800 DK, $117400 FF, $26900 SS, $17000 FTD

• Wei-Yin Chen – Chen is a pitcher that rarely gets rocked, but he rarely pitches a gem either. He owns a 4.12 ERA on the season with a 1.30 WHIP. He has a tough matchup against the Nationals who are ranked 7th in wOBA against LH pitching. He’s cheap, but not a recommended play tonight. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6100 FD, $9927 DS, $12100 DD, $6700 DK, $65300 FF, $17200 SS, $12100 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Anthony Rendon – Rendon and Werth are tied for the top play on the Nats, but I’ll feature Rendon because he’s been red hot. He has 14 hits over his last 10 games, 8 of which went for extra bases. I love the matchup against Chen who has given up a .342 wOBA to RH hitters since the start of 2013.

Additional Plays: Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman

Baltimore

Adam Jones – Jones and LH pitching go together like peanut butter and jelly. He is sporting a shiny .528 wOBA against southpaws this season. I’m not too worried about the fact that he’s facing Gio. Trust the numbers here.

Additional Plays: Nelson Cruz

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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