MLB Grind Down: Thursday, July 3rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-07-03 19:19:37

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

St. Louis at San Francisco

St. Louis					San Francisco
Carlos Martinez		Vegas Moneyline			Madison Bumgarner		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		SFG (-144)			LEFT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.308	0.849	0.390	11.7%	SP vs. Left	0.198	0.529	0.239	35.4%
SP vs. Right	0.220	0.527	0.262	25.2%	SP vs. Right	0.225	0.621	0.286	22.5%
Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs L		Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SFG vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Carlos Martinez – There are only 2 early games on the slate today, but we’ll cover them quickly in case the site that you are playing has early leagues. Martinez is an easy pitcher to avoid today. He is mainly a bullpen pitcher and is not going to pitch deep into this game. It also doesn’t help that Bumgarner is pitching opposite him and that he’s a sizable underdog. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5600 FD, $10105 DS, $8350 DD, $5200 DK, $NA FF, $13000 SS, $NA FTD

• Madison Bumgarner – Bumgarner is looking to bounce back after a rocky start against the Reds. While Bumgarner has struggled at home this season, he has historically been excellent in the pitcher-friendly AT&T Park. Bumgarner is sporting a 2.90 ERA with a strikeout rate of 9.5 and he faces a Cardinals’ offense that is ranked 24th in team wOBA against LH pitching. Rating = 8

Salaries: $9400 FD, $18677 DS, $18750 DD, $9800 DK, $ FF, $27800 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

While Matt Holliday, Yadier Molina, and Allen Craig all hit LH pitching well, they are a combined 7/42 against Bumgarner. Avoid all Cardinals’ hitters today.

San Francisco

Pablo Sandoval – Pablo has had his struggles against LH pitching this season, but he’s batting .291 against RH pitching with a wOBA of .342. He has 8 hits over his last 8 games and a favorable matchup against Martinez who has given up a .390 wOBA to LHB’s over the last 2 seasons.

Additional Plays: Buster Posey, Hunter Pence

Philadelphia at Miami

Philadelphia					Miami
Kyle Kendrick		Vegas Moneyline			Brad Hand		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		MIA (-112)			LEFT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.271	0.744	0.331	14.7%	SP vs. Left	0.196	0.645	0.288	23.8%
SP vs. Right	0.284	0.722	0.329	13.3%	SP vs. Right	0.259	0.820	0.366	15.2%
Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs L		Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Kyle Kendrick – Kendrick will be on the bump for the Phillies today against the Marlins. While Marlins Park is one of the bigger parks in baseball, Kendrick is a risky GPP play at best. He owns a 4.22 ERA on the season and has given up at least 4 earned runs in 6 of his last 10 games. The Marlins have a team .312 wOBA against RH pitching this season which is right above the league average. The risk is greater than the reward with Kendrick. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6000 FD, $11598 DS, $11200 DD, $7000 DK, $NA FF, $18100 SS, $NA FTD

• Brad Hand – Hand will get the start today for the Marlins, but he is not a recommended fantasy play. He has an ERA over 4.50 in the last 3 seasons combined and he is not a high strikeout pitcher. Even though he is cheap, I have a hard time seeing him reach value against the Phillies who hit LH pitching well. There aren’t many games in Marlins Park with a total as high as 8.5 runs which should give you a good idea of the quality of the starters. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5000 FD, $ DS, $7500 DD, $5900 DK, $ FF, $13000 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Marlon Byrd – Even at 36 years old, Byrd is still getting the job done, especially against LH pitching. Byrd has a .400 wOBA against southpaws this season and is a nice value play in the OF.

Additional Plays: Jimmy Rollins, John Mayberry

Miami

Giancarlo Stanton – Today is a great test of the old BvP debate. While Stanton is only 3/23 with 8 K’s against Kendrick in his career, I think he makes a terrific play. Stanton has a .403 wOBA against RH pitching this season and Kendrick has given up a .329 wOBA since the start of 2013.

Additional Plays: Garrett Jones, Jarrod Saltalamacchia

Arizona at Pittsburgh

Arizona					Pittsburgh
Brandon McCarthy		Vegas Moneyline			Vance Worley		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		PIT (-138)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.299	0.769	0.338	18.6%	SP vs. Left	0.358	0.965	0.428	13.5%
SP vs. Right	0.290	0.769	0.345	13.2%	SP vs. Right	0.364	0.898	0.396	9.4%
Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs R		Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Brandon McCarthy – Most pitching stats have made the case that McCarthy has been pitching much better than his ERA suggests. We finally got a glimpse of that in his last start as he struck out 7 batters over 7 strong innings against the Padres. McCarthy has a respectable K/9 of 7.5 and makes a nice tournament play tonight against the Pirates. PNC Park is one of the more pitcher friendly parks in baseball and I could see him getting run support with Worley on the mound for the Pirates. Rating = 5

Salaries: $5700 FD, $12069 DS, $11900 DD, $6500 DK, $61900 FF, $16800 SS, $11900 FTD

• Vance Worley – Worley has really pitched well this season, but I’m not sure that I’m buying in just yet. While his ERA is at 1.74, his xFIP is at 4.14 and his BABIP is extremely low at .242. It’s going to be extremely difficult for him to keep up this pace and the hits against him will likely start to fall. His price has come up on most sites and I think McCarthy is the better play of the two starters in this one. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5500 FD, $15859 DS, $12250 DD, $7000 DK, $40000 FF, $23400 SS, $12250 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Miguel Montero – Montero is one of the top wOBA plays tonight. Worley has given up a .428 wOBA to LHB’s since the start of 2013 while Montero has been crushing RH pitching this season to a tune of a .383 wOBA. He’s price fairly and should be batting clean-up again.

Additional Plays: Paul Goldschmidt

Pittsburgh

Gregory Polanco – How about this young kid? Gets called up from the minors and immediately makes a huge impact on this Pirates’ team. Polanco has shown both power (3 HR’s) and speed (4 SB’s) and should be targeted in all leagues.

Additional Plays: Andrew McCutchen

Texas at Baltimore

Texas					Baltimore
Yu Darvish		Vegas Moneyline			Wei-Yin Chen		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		TEX (-123)			LEFT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.224	0.659	0.299	28.8%	SP vs. Left	0.271	0.724	0.323	17.0%
SP vs. Right	0.175	0.524	0.243	36.7%	SP vs. Right	0.276	0.762	0.334	18.2%
Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs L		Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Yu Darvish – Darvish and his impressive K/9 of 11.1 take the mound tonight against the Orioles. When you watch Darvish pitch, you see a master of his craft. He makes great hitters look downright foolish at the plate. While you can’t argue with the upside that he provides, I’m not sure that I will be paying up for him tonight. The Orioles have a ton of power in their lineup and there are a couple of other top aces on the mound tonight with more favorable matchups. Rating = 8

Salaries: $11800 FD, $23959 DS, $20700 DD, $12500 DK, $144300 FF, $32000 SS, $20700 FTD

• Wei-Yin Chen – Chen is one of those pitchers that always gives his team a chance to win, but never really stands out as a great fantasy option. He is sporting a 4.19 ERA on the season with a pretty average K/9 of 6.4. Despite having a down season overall, the Rangers’ offense is ranked 6th against LH pitching this season with a team .335 wOBA. The price is right on Chen, but the matchup makes him an extremely risky cash game option. Rating = 5

Salaries: $5900 FD, $10284 DS, $11900 DD, $6600 DK, $68800 FF, $17200 SS, $11900 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Alex Rios – Rios let his batting average slip under .300 for the first time since the start of the season. That didn’t last long though as he’s gone 4/8 in his last 2 games. His price is cheap across the industry and he has been crushing LH pitching this season with a .469 wOBA.

Additional Plays: Adrian Beltre

Baltimore

While I may not be paying up for Darvish tonight, I certainly will not be targeting any hitters against him. Darvish has held LHB’s and RHB’s under a .300 wOBA and should fan plenty of Orioles’ bats tonight.

Tampa Bay at Detroit

Tampa Bay					Detroit
Erik Bedard		Vegas Moneyline			Max Scherzer		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		DET (-176)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.301	0.822	0.367	19.6%	SP vs. Left	0.236	0.681	0.301	25.2%
SP vs. Right	0.245	0.720	0.322	20.1%	SP vs. Right	0.187	0.540	0.246	32.4%
Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TBR vs R		Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Erik Bedard – Bedard has pitched pretty well this season considering the fact that he pitches in the AL East. That said, I suppose the AL East isn’t nearly the offensive juggernaut that it has been in year’s past. Bedard faces an extremely tough Tigers’ offense that is ranked 4th against LH pitching this season. Bedard is one of the biggest underdogs tonight in terms of the Vegas line and he can safely be avoided in all leagues. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5600 FD, $11558 DS, $11550 DD, $6900 DK, $69300 FF, $17400 SS, $11550 FTD

• Max Scherzer – As mentioned above, there are solid alternatives if you don’t want to pay up for Darvish tonight. One of those options is Scherzer. While his ERA and WHIP are both up this season, he is still sporting a strikeout rate of 10.7 per 9 innings and he’s racked up 21 K’s over his last 2 starts. I’m a big fan of his matchup against the Rays who have struggled to score runs all season long. They are also ranked below average against RH pitching. Factoring in price, he’s my favorite play of the night. Rating = 9

Salaries: $10300 FD, $20999 DS, $18100 DD, $10400 DK, $123000 FF, $30400 SS, $18100 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Targeting hitters against the best pitchers in baseball is not a DFS strategy that will pan out in the long run. I’ll be avoiding all Rays’ hitters tonight against Scherzer.

Detroit

Miguel Cabrera – Miggy Miggy Miggy, can’t you see… Miggy is the top option at 1B hands down tonight. He has historically crush LH pitching and he’s facing an average lefty in Bedard. He should see plenty of RBI opportunities tonight and I think that he cashes in on them.

Additional Plays: Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez, Victor Martinez (if back in the lineup)

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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