MLB Grind Down: Thursday, June 19th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-06-19 18:10:36

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

LA Angels at Cleveland

LA Angels					Cleveland
C.J. Wilson		Vegas Moneyline			Justin Masterson		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		LAA (-121)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.176	0.489	0.234	27.9%	SP vs. Left	0.264	0.733	0.335	18.0%
SP vs. Right	0.258	0.711	0.324	19.4%	SP vs. Right	0.192	0.515	0.259	30.2%
Batter Splits	LAA BvP		LAA vs R		Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• C.J. Wilson – These two starters were scheduled to pitch last night, but the game was rained out so they will both make their starts today. I always like targeting Wilson because the Angels typically let him throw close to 120 pitches when he is pitching well. He has a nice matchup against the Indians who are ranked 25th against LH pitching this season. Not only that, but Wilson is extremely efficient against LHB’s and this Indians’ lineup is littered with lefties. I am likely higher on him than most, but all signs are a go for Wilson. Rating = 8

Salaries: $8300 FD, $16885 DS, $16300 DD, $9200 DK, $90900 FF, $25400 SS, $16600 FTD

• Justin Masterson – Masterson has been a tough pitcher to predict this season. He typically pitches well when he has good command or he falls apart when his command is off and he is walking batters. The Angels’ lineup has a nice mix of LHB’s and RHB’s that should cause some trouble for Masterson. Of the two starters in this game, Wilson is the recommended play. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6900 FD, $12112 DS, $11150 DD, $6600 DK, $76200 FF, $16600 SS, $11150 FTD

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Kole Calhoun – Calhoun had a huge game last night with 4 hits including a late inning HR. He has been terrific against RH pitching all season long and Masterson has given up a .335 wOBA to LHB’s since the start of last season.

Additional Plays: Josh Hamilton, Mike Trout

Cleveland

Carlos Santana – Since the start of 2013, Wilson has held LHB’s to a .234 wOBA so I highly recommend avoiding the LHB’s in this Indians’ lineup. If you are targeting any hitters here, target the RHB’s.

Additional Plays: None

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

Cincinnati					Pittsburgh
Homer Bailey		Vegas Moneyline			Jeff Locke		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		PIT (-110)			LEFT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.281	0.771	0.347	20.4%	SP vs. Left	0.280	0.696	0.334	11.9%
SP vs. Right	0.219	0.607	0.275	24.6%	SP vs. Right	0.231	0.654	0.297	19.6%
Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs L		Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Homer Bailey – Bailey has a 4.98 ERA on the season, but his xFIP tells a different story at only 3.50. Bailey has been pitching better than his numbers suggest and has actually posted some great fantasy outings thanks to his K/9 of 8.1. Homer faces a Pirates offense that has been slightly above average against RH pitching this season with a team .320 wOBA. This is a decent matchup in a pitcher’s park. Rating = 6

Salaries: $8400 FD, $15692 DS, $14150 DD, $8800 DK, $105400 FF, $22000 SS, $14150 FTD

• Jeff Locke – Locke has only made 3 starts this season, but pitched pretty well in 2013 with a 3.52 ERA and a K/9 of 6.8. He is facing a Reds’ offense that is ranked 29th against LH pitching with a team .284 wOBA. The Reds are a better hitting team than that though and they are finally starting to get healthy with everyone back in the lineup. Locke is a better tournament play than a cash game play. Rating = 5

Salaries: $5000 FD, $11361 DS, $12000 DD, $7400 DK, $70700 FF, $18500 SS, $12000 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Todd Frazier – Frazier is quietly having a terrific season with 16 HR’s and 41 RBI’s. He has mashed LH pitching to a tune of a .432 wOBA. Even though Locke has given up a higher wOBA to LHB’s, I think Frazier is the top play here.

Additional Plays: Brandon Phillips, Devin Mesoraco

Pittsburgh

Andrew McCutchen – Cutch has been good against RH pitching (.418 wOBA) and good at PNC Park this season. He also has a decent track record against Bailey as he is 12/40 against him with 3 XBH’s and 11 walks.

Additional Plays: Pedro Alvarez

Kansas City at Detroit

Kansas City					Detroit
Danny Duffy		Vegas Moneyline			Anibal Sanchez		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		DET (-148)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.169	0.400	0.195	17.1%	SP vs. Left	0.226	0.612	0.277	26.2%
SP vs. Right	0.210	0.627	0.295	20.2%	SP vs. Right	0.205	0.558	0.250	26.7%
Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KCR vs R		Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Danny Duffy – Duffy is finally starting to live up to the lofty expectations that have been put on him over the years. In his first 8 starts this season he has a 2.83 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP and a K/9 of 7.0. While he faces a tough Tigers’ offense in Comerica today, the Tigers offense has been slumping in this series against the Royals. Duffy is worth a look as an upside play for GPP’s. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6000 FD, $12955 DS, $9950 DD, $6400 DK, $86600 FF, $16800 SS, $9950 FTD

• Anibal Sanchez – Sanchez is hoping to do what no other Tigers’ starter has been able to do in this series: get a win. He will try to tame these Royals’ bats that have seemingly found every little hole in the infield and every gap in the outfield in this series. Sanchez has been locked in over his last 5 starts as he has only given up 8 earned runs while striking out 32 batters. Rating = 8

Salaries: $8700 FD, $17468 DS, $16150 DD, $9800 DK, $107400 FF, $26400 SS, $16150 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Even though the Royals’ offense has been firing on all cylinders, I’ll be avoiding them today. I’ll take good pitching over an offense that is still near the bottom of most offensive categories.

Detroit

Victor Martinez – V-Mart is a great play today, especially on sites where he is catcher eligible. V-Mart has a .520 wOBA against LH pitching this season while only striking out in 7% of his at-bats. Even his outs are well hit balls.

Additional Plays: Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler

Milwaukee at Arizona

Milwaukee					Arizona
Yovani Gallardo		Vegas Moneyline			Chase Anderson		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		MIL (-120)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.242	0.693	0.314	17.5%	SP vs. Left	0.130	0.395	0.201	14.5%
SP vs. Right	0.265	0.708	0.316	19.8%	SP vs. Right	0.319	1.016	0.438	22.1%
Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs R		Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Yovani Gallardo – Gallardo had pitched well earlier in the season, but there was a lot of talk about his diminished K-rate. He’s quieted those concerns with 22 K’s over his last 3 starts. While I do like Gallardo’s fantasy value moving forward, I don’t like his matchup today against the D-Backs in the hitter-friendly Chase Field. Rating = 4

Salaries: $7100 FD, $15520 DS, $13650 DD, $7500 DK, $83000 FF, $20400 SS, $13650 FTD

• Chase Anderson – Anderson has pitched well for a rookie. In his first 6 big league starts, he has a 3.21 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP and a K/9 of 7.1. That said, he has a tough matchup against the Brewers who are above average against RH pitching and who have a very powerful lineup now that Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Gomez are both back in the lineup. Rating = 3

Salaries: $6400 FD, $11166 DS, $12900 DD, $6500 DK, $90800 FF, $17600 SS, $12900 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Jonathan Lucroy – Lucroy is my top catcher play of the day. He has been locked in with 17 hits (4 HR’s) over his last 10 games. He has a .396 wOBA against RH pitching this season and has a favorable matchup against the rookie Anderson.

Additional Plays: Ryan Braun, Aramis Ramirez, Scooter Gennett

Arizona

Paul Goldschmidt – Goldy is always a recommended play against southpaws, but seems to go overlooked when he is facing a righty. But the fact is that Goldy has hit RH pitching with just as much power this season as he has a wOBA over .400 against them.

Additional Plays: Miguel Montero, Didi Gregorious, Gerardo Parra

Seattle at San Diego

Seattle					San Diego
Erasmo Ramirez		Vegas Moneyline			Jesse Hahn		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		SDP (-125)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.290	0.811	0.361	16.8%	SP vs. Left	0.105	0.571	0.245	30.0%
SP vs. Right	0.259	0.780	0.346	20.6%	SP vs. Right	0.294	0.703	0.360	27.3%
Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs R		Batter Splits	SDP BvP		SDP vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Erasmo Ramirez – Erasmo has been an easy pitcher to avoid this season. The young RHP has great stuff, but he has yet to put a complete outing together. He has an ERA over 5.00 this season with a WHIP over 1.60. The good news is that he hasn’t allowed an earned run in his last 10 innings and gets to face the Padres in Petco. For the price, he’s certainly worth the risk. Rating = 6

Salaries: $5600 FD, $11222 DS, $NA DD, $5800 DK, $59800 FF, $13000 SS, $9550 FTD

• Jesse Hahn – Hahn is coming off of a terrific outing against the Mets. He struck out 7 batters over 6 scoreless innings while picking up the win. It’s hard to argue against taking a pitcher in Petco, especially when there opponent is ranked 25th against RH pitching this season. Target Hahn in tournaments today. Rating = 5

Salaries: $5000 FD, $11919 DS, $ DD, $7000 DK, $64000 FF, $18000 SS, $11450 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Robinson Cano – Typically I like to avoid batters in Petco, but the two pitchers on the mound aren’t exactly aces. Cano has a .366 wOBA against RH pitching this season and is a safe play at 2B.

Additional Plays: Kyle Seager

San Diego

Seth Smith – Since the start of 2013, Erasmo has given up a .361 wOBA to LHB’s. Smith has cooled off after a fantastic start to the season, but he still has a .402 wOBA against RH pitching.

Additional Plays: Everth Cabrera

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2