MLB Grind Down: Thursday, June 5th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-06-05 17:34:17

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

San Francisco at Cincinnati

San Francisco					Cincinnati
Madison Bumgarner		Vegas Moneyline			Mike Leake		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		SFG (-127)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.190	0.520	0.236	36.4%	SP vs. Left	0.261	0.703	0.316	13.6%
SP vs. Right	0.227	0.624	0.287	22.5%	SP vs. Right	0.250	0.658	0.299	17.3%
Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SFG vs R		Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Madison Bumgarner – Bumgarner has pitched well this season, especially on the road where he carries a 1.57 ERA with a K/9 of 10.4. He draws a terrific matchup today against the Reds who have not hit LH pitching well this season. They are currently ranked 27th against southpaws with a team .290 wOBA and a 23.4 K-percentage. Bumgarner should mow through this lineup. Rating = 9

Salaries: $9400 FD, $18594 DS, $NA DD, $11100 DK, $117300 FF, $28300 SS, $NA FTD

• Mike Leake – Leake doesn’t strike out a ton of batters as his K/9 is under 6.0 this season, but he has been able to get outs. On the season he has a 2.92 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP. The Giants have been heating up offensively though and he may have a tough time seeing any run support with Bumgarner pitching opposite him. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7100 FD, $14515 DS, $ DD, $7300 DK, $87400 FF, $21100 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Hunter Pence – Pence has really hit RH pitching well this season as he has posted a wOBA of .348 against righties. Leake has been pretty solid this season, but I think the Giants knock him around a bit in this one.

Additional Plays: Buster Posey, Michael Morse, Pablo Sandoval

Cincinnati

The only play that I will be using here is Devin Mesoraco and I see him as more of a GPP play. Bumgarner has held LHB’s and RHB’s under a .290 wOBA this season and this Reds’ offense has really struggled against lefties.

Oakland at NY Yankees

Oakland					NY Yankees
Drew Pomeranz		Vegas Moneyline			Masahiro Tanaka		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		NYY (-170)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.157	0.467	0.217	30.4%	SP vs. Left	0.229	0.566	0.253	21.1%
SP vs. Right	0.266	0.818	0.369	18.2%	SP vs. Right	0.208	0.613	0.272	35.6%
Batter Splits	OAK BvP		OAK vs R		Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Drew Pomeranz – Pomeranz is boasting a 2.37 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a K/9 of 8.3 this season. He’s really pitched well, but has yet to pitch more than 5 innings in any of his 5 starts. For me, I like to take pitchers that have more upside. Plus this game will be played in the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5100 FD, $13559 DS, $10500 DD, $5700 DK, $78400 FF, $17200 SS, $NA FTD

• Masahiro Tanaka – Tanaka will have one of his toughest tests to date as he faces an A’s offense that is ranked 3rd against RH pitching with a team .339 wOBA. That said, there haven’t been any teams that have been able to crack Tanaka’s code thus far and his K/9 of 10.2 makes him a legitimate fantasy option in all leagues. Rating = 8

Salaries: $11000 FD, $25452 DS, $19900 DD, $13000 DK, $152000 FF, $33000 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Even though this A’s offense is very good against RH pitching, Tanaka has held both LHB’s and RHB’s under a .275 wOBA this season. For the first time in a long time, I’ll be avoiding all A’s hitters.

NY Yankees

Alfonso Soriano – I’m going back to the well with this one. Soriano has really been struggling over the last couple of weeks, but his price has plummeted and he gets to face a LHP that has given up a .369 wOBA to RHB’s this season. Soriano has always hit lefties well and this is a nice time to buy low on him.

Additional Plays: Jacoby Ellsbury, Mark Teixeira

Toronto at Detroit

Toronto					Detroit
J.A. Happ		Vegas Moneyline			Justin Verlander		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		DET (-160)			RIGHT		9.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.291	0.805	0.358	19.8%	SP vs. Left	0.239	0.663	0.298	21.9%
SP vs. Right	0.241	0.729	0.325	18.6%	SP vs. Right	0.282	0.747	0.332	21.1%
Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs R		Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• J.A. Happ – Happ is an easy pitcher to avoid in my eyes. He is very inconsistent and plays in the AL East which means he is typically up against some tough opponents. Today he has to face the Tigers who have been pretty good against LH pitching this season. Happ is a +150 underdog and can safely be avoided in all leagues. Rating = 3

Salaries: $6000 FD, $12223 DS, $11500 DD, $6000 DK, $79700 FF, $15900 SS, $NA FTD

• Justin Verlander – Verlander has given up 19 earned runs over his last 4 starts, but showed signs of improvement in his last outing against the Mariners. Verlander still has plenty left in the tank, but I’d like to see him put a quality start or two together before targeting him in daily fantasy. He has a tough matchup today against the Blue Jays who are ranked 1st against RH pitching this season. Rating = 6

Salaries: $8000 FD, $16886 DS, $16200 DD, $9500 DK, $78100 FF, $25400 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Jose Bautista – Even though Verlander is a RHP, he has given up a .332 wOBA to RHB’s this season. Bautista has a .378 wOBA against RH pitching and is swinging a hot bat with 17 hits over his last 10 games.

Additional Plays: Jose Reyes, Melky Cabrera, Adam Lind

Detroit

Miguel Cabrera – Miggy at home against a pretty average LHP? Yes please and thank you!. Miggy’s numbers against LH pitching are down this season, but he has crushed southpaws throughout his career and should be considered the top 1B on the board today.

Additional Plays: Victor Martinez, Ian Kinsler, Torii Hunter

Philadelphia at Washington

Philadelphia					Washington
Kyle Kendrick		Vegas Moneyline			Doug Fister		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		WAS (-179)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.269	0.741	0.329	14.3%	SP vs. Left	0.270	0.690	0.311	18.9%
SP vs. Right	0.289	0.734	0.333	13.4%	SP vs. Right	0.288	0.691	0.318	17.2%
Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs R		Batter Splits	WSN BvP		WSN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Kyle Kendrick – Kendrick has struggled on the road this season with a 4.70 ERA and only 16 K’s over 30 innings of work. He is an extremely cheap SP option, but that does not mean that he is a good one. The Nationals are finally starting to get healthy with Zimmerman back in the lineup and Kendrick is one of the biggest underdogs on the board. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5400 FD, $8787 DS, $11900 DD, $6100 DK, $61000 FF, $13500 SS, $NA FTD

• Doug Fister – Fister doesn’t waste much time on the mound. When he gets the ball, he’s ready to go. On the season he is sporting a 3.34 ERA with 23 K’s over 29 innings of work. He has a terrific matchup today against the Phillies who are ranked 27th against RH pitching this season with a team .287 wOBA. For the price, he is one of my favorite pitchers today. Rating = 8

Salaries: $7600 FD, $16524 DS, $14300 DD, $7500 DK, $102700 FF, $23800 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Chase Utley – Utley is really the only Phillies’ bat that deserves consideration against Fister. Utley has a .401 wOBA against RH pitching this season and is a tough out for all pitchers.

Additional Plays: None

Washington

Ryan Zimmerman – The sample size is small, but Zimmerman has a .447 wOBA against RH pitching this season. He has a favorable matchup today against Kendrick who has given up a .333 wOBA to RHB’s.

Additional Plays: Adam LaRoche, Anthony Rendon, Jayson Werth

Miami at Tampa Bay

Miami					Tampa Bay
Jacob Turner		Vegas Moneyline			Jake Odorizzi		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		TBR (-145)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.257	0.711	0.328	11.8%	SP vs. Left	0.292	0.807	0.355	22.7%
SP vs. Right	0.295	0.794	0.356	16.8%	SP vs. Right	0.228	0.672	0.306	25.2%
Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs R		Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TBR vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jacob Turner – Turner is an easy pitcher to avoid today. On the season he has a 5.59 ERA and he has given up a .328+ wOBA to both LHB’s and RHB’s. He’s also a sizable underdog. Rating = 3

Salaries: $4700 FD, $8949 DS, $8850 DD, $5600 DK, $50700 FF, $13000 SS, $NA FTD

• Jake Odorizzi – Odorizzi carries a 5.13 ERA into today’s game, but he also has an impressive K/9 of 10.9. He is facing a Marlins’ offense that has really struggled on the road this season. His price is cheap and I like the upside that he brings to the table. He is in play on multi-pitcher sites and GPP’s. Rating = 6

Salaries: $5400 FD, $14520 DS, $14200 DD, $7100 DK, $76300 FF, $16700 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Garrett Jones – Jones should be in the lineup today against the RHP Odorizzi who has given up a .355 wOBA to LHB’s this season. Jones has been terrific against RH pitching with a .380 wOBA.

Additional Plays: Giancarlo Stanton

Tampa Bay

Evan Longoria – Turner has been bad against both LHB’s and RHB’s this season. Longoria homered in last night’s game and maybe that can kickstart his bat. His price is cheap across the industry and it’s a great time to buy low on the talented 3B.

Additional Plays: Ben Zobrist, Desmond Jennings

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2