MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, July 1st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-07-01 20:55:36

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Arizona at Pittsburgh

Arizona					Pittsburgh
Wade Miley		Vegas Moneyline			Jeff Locke		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		PIT (-132)			LEFT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.250	0.678	0.307	16.5%	SP vs. Left	0.280	0.696	0.334	11.9%
SP vs. Right	0.262	0.747	0.332	19.4%	SP vs. Right	0.231	0.654	0.297	19.6%
Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs L		Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Wade Miley – We have a big slate on tap for Tuesday night so let’s jump right into it. Miley will be on the bump tonight for the D-Backs. Miley has pitched much better of late, but still sports a 4.78 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP. The upside is that he has a respectable K/9 of 8.3. Tonight he faces the Pirates in PNC Park. While the ballpark factor favors Miley, the Pirates are ranked 11th in team wOBA against LH pitching this season. Miley is a border line GPP option only. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6200 FD, $12656 DS, $13200 DD, $7400 DK, $73400 FF, $19600 SS, $13200 FTD

• Jeff Locke – Locke has pitched well in his first 5 starts of the season. He owns a 3.74 ERA while striking out 23 batters over 33 innings of work. The Diamondbacks have a few players that really hit LH pitching well, but as a team they are only ranked 22nd against southpaws this season. Locke is a small favorite in this one and can be targeted as a GPP play. Rating = 5

Salaries: $5300 FD, $12745 DS, $12150 DD, $7800 DK, $85900 FF, $21100 SS, $12150 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Paul Goldschmidt – Goldy vs. a LH pitcher is a no-brainer. He owns a .427 wOBA against lefties this season and while Locke gives up a slightly higher wOBA to LHB’s than he does to RHB’s, Goldy is one of the top 1B options on the board.

Additional Plays: Aaron Hill

Pittsburgh

Andrew McCutchen – Cutch has mashed LH pitching throughout his career and that hasn’t changed in 2014. This season he has a .470 wOBA against southpaws and is one of the few players in baseball that has as good of a chance of stealing a base as he does of hitting a HR.

Additional Plays: Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte

Texas at Baltimore

Texas					Baltimore
Nick Martinez		Vegas Moneyline			T.J. McFarland		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		BAL (-128)			LEFT		9.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.339	1.001	0.433	8.6%	SP vs. Left	0.294	0.782	0.344	22.7%
SP vs. Right	0.283	0.737	0.320	13.1%	SP vs. Right	0.284	0.734	0.339	12.4%
Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs L		Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Nick Martinez – Over his last 6 starts, Martinez has given up 24 earned runs in only 28 innings of work. He’s in bad form and draws a tough matchup against the Orioles whose lineup is stacked with power. As a team, the Orioles are ranked 10th against RH pitching this season with a .320 wOBA. It should be another big night for the offense of the Orioles. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5000 FD, $7155 DS, $8950 DD, $4500 DK, $40000 FF, $13000 SS, $8950 FTD

• T.J. McFarland – McFarland has pitched exclusively out of the bullpen this season, but will draw a spot start tonight against the Rangers. He’s not going to pitch deep into this game which really kills any sort of fantasy value that he may have had. It also doesn’t help that the Rangers are ranked 4th against LH pitching this season with a team .336 wOBA. Rating = 2

Salaries: $5000 FD, $10875 DS, $ DD, $6500 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Adrian Beltre – There are a lot of reasons to like Beltre tonight. He has been great against LH pitching this season with a .351 batting average and a .397 wOBA. He’s also been locked in with 17 hits (4 went for extra bases) over his last 10 games.

Additional Plays: Alex Rios, Elvis Andrus

Baltimore

Chris Davis – Martinez has been extremely vulnerable to LHB’s (.433 wOBA given up) this season and it looks like it’s finally the night to target Crush Davis at 1B. His price is cheap across the industry and we all know the type of upside that he provides.

Additional Plays: Nick Markakis, Nelson Cruz, Adam Jones

Colorado at Washington

Colorado					Washington
Christian Friedrich		Vegas Moneyline			Stephen Strasburg		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		WAS (-255)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left					SP vs. Left	0.225	0.612	0.282	23.6%
SP vs. Right					SP vs. Right	0.226	0.592	0.277	29.9%
Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs R		Batter Splits	WSN BvP		WSN vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Christian Friedrich – Friedrich is not a recommended fantasy option tonight. The young LH pitcher has given up 9 earned runs in his first 2 starts of the season. He draws an extremely tough matchup against the Nationals who are ranked 6th against LH pitching on the season. Rating = 3

Salaries: $4600 FD, $8554 DS, $8450 DD, $5000 DK, $64000 FF, $13000 SS, $8450 FTD

• Stephen Strasburg – Strasburg is the top overall pitching option on the board tonight. He has been terrific at home this season with a 2.51 ERA and a K/9 of 12.0. He is facing a Rockies’ offense that is a much different ball club outside of their friendly confines of Coors Field. Strasburg is by far the biggest favorite tonight at -255 and should be targeted in all leagues. Rating = 10

Salaries: $9300 FD, $22222 DS, $18000 DD, $10300 DK, $92300 FF, $28400 SS, $18300 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Stephen Strasburg has been dominant at Nationals Park throughout his career. Not only that, but he’s also held both LHB’s and RHB’s under a .290 wOBA since the start of 2013. All Rockies’ hitters should be avoided tonight.

Washington

Ryan Zimmerman – The Nationals have another favorable matchup against another rookie LH pitcher tonight. Zimmerman has always hit LH pitching well and is coming off of a great game last night in which he went 3/4 with a run and an RBI. He’ll see plenty of RBI opportunities in this one.

Additional Plays: Anthony Rendon, Jayson Werth, Ian Desmond

Tampa Bay at NY Yankees

Tampa Bay					NY Yankees
David Price		Vegas Moneyline			Hiroki Kuroda		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		TBR (-122)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.223	0.580	0.263	22.4%	SP vs. Left	0.265	0.743	0.327	16.1%
SP vs. Right	0.265	0.698	0.307	23.2%	SP vs. Right	0.239	0.618	0.276	19.8%
Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TBR vs R		Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• David Price – Price has always pitched well against the Yankees and will look to continue that trend tonight in Yankee Stadium. Price has been terrific in June with a 2.27 ERA, a K/9 of 12.4, and a K/BB ratio of 10.8. The only issue that I have with Price tonight is that he is more expensive than Strasburg. For the price, I think Strasburg is the better cash game play, but that may help Price’s value in a GPP with the majority of players targeting Strasburg. Rating = 8

Salaries: $10400 FD, $23264 DS, $21000 DD, $11900 DK, $141800 FF, $31700 SS, $21600 FTD

• Hiroki Kuroda – Kuroda’s struggles continue. While he hasn’t been awful this season, his numbers have certainly declined from that of his numbers in 2013 and 2012. That said, I do like the matchup tonight against the Rays who have been sub-par against RH pitching this season. Kuroda may struggle to get run support with Price pitching opposite him, but at this price, he is in play on multi-pitcher sites and as a tournament play. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6900 FD, $10705 DS, $12400 DD, $7200 DK, $65600 FF, $19200 SS, $12400 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Matt Joyce – Joyce has had a nice little 2-game stretch. In his last 2 games he has gone 6/12 with 3 HR’s and 5 RBI’s. Yankee Stadium really gives a boost to LHB’s with the short porch in right and Joyce should be targeted as a value play in the OF once again.

Additional Plays: Ben Zobrist, Evan Longoria

NY Yankees

David Price has been untouchable in the month of June and I’ll be avoiding most of the Yankees’ hitters. I may have some exposure to Alfonso Soriano and Mark Teixeira as GPP plays though as Price has already given up 17 HR’s this season, 13 of which were to RHB’s.

Oakland at Detroit

Oakland					Detroit
Brad Mills		Vegas Moneyline			Rick Porcello		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		DET (-140)			RIGHT		9.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left					SP vs. Left	0.286	0.777	0.346	14.6%
SP vs. Right					SP vs. Right	0.248	0.641	0.283	22.2%
Batter Splits	OAK BvP		OAK vs R		Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Brad Mills – Mills is a 29-year-old journeyman that will only be making his 8th career start tonight. He is a big underdog in a game that features a total of 9.0 runs. He can safely be avoided in all leagues as the Tigers feast on LH pitching (.334 team wOBA). Rating = 3

Salaries: $4600 FD, $9159 DS, $9350 DD, $5500 DK, $NA FF, $13800 SS, $8150 FTD

• Rick Porcello – Porcello hasn’t allowed a single earned run in either of his last 2 starts. He is a pitcher that rarely gives up a huge outing and he always seems to give him team a shot to win. That said, I don’t like the matchup against the A’s. Porcello is vulnerable to LHB’s and the A’s have some extremely tough outs with their batters from the left side. There are better starting pitcher options in his price range. Rating = 4

Salaries: $7400 FD, $15100 DS, $14450 DD, $7500 DK, $101100 FF, $22300 SS, $14450 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Brandon Moss – Moss has been terrific this season and will look to continue that tonight against Porcello who has given up a .346 wOBA to LHB’s since the start of 2013. This should be a high scoring game and Moss should be right in the thick of it.

Additional Plays: John Jaso, Coco Crisp

Detroit

Miguel Cabrera – We finally saw some power from Miggy against LH pitching last night. As crazy as it sounds, the former MVP is only batting .240 against LH pitching this season. I think it’s only a matter of time before that changes though. I love the matchup against Mills and have him listed as my top 1B on the board tonight.

Additional Plays: Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez, Rajai Davis

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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