MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, April 2nd - Page 3

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-04-03 06:07:00

Philadelphia at Texas

Philadelphia					Texas
Kyle Kendrick		Vegas Moneyline			Robbie Ross		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		TEX (-160)			LEFT		9.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.246	0.675	0.301	14.0%	SP vs. Left	0.344	0.921	0.419	23.8%
SP vs. Right	0.318	0.789	0.357	13.5%	SP vs. Right	0.209	0.513	0.243	20.5%
Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs L		Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Kyle Kendrick – There are a lot of reasons to avoid Kendrick. Let’s start with the fact that he is facing a dangerous Rangers lineup in a hitter friendly ballpark. We can also add that Kendrick struggled on the road last season and gave up a .300+ wOBA to both RH and LH bats. We can also throw in the fact that he is a large underdog in a game that features the highest total of the night. Rating = 1

• Robbie Ross – With Yu Darvish still out, Ross grabbed a spot in the rotation by posting a 1.27 ERA in Spring ball. Ross is a young lefty that pitched in 65 games as a reliever last season. During that stretch, Ross posted a 3.03 ERA with a K-rate of 8.4/9 IP. Obviously, being a starter is another animal than being a reliever though. Ross makes a decent tournament play against the Phillies to don’t hit lefties all that well, but we could easily see another outing like we saw from Scheppers on opening day. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

• Carlos Ruiz – Ruiz has always been good against LH pitching and hit .300 against them last season. Ruiz was a bit of a disappointment against the lefty Perez last night, but draws another nice matchup tonight. Ruiz is a nice punt play at Catcher.

• Additional Plays: Marlon Byrd, Chase Utley

Texas

• Prince Fielder – It’s not often that I call for a dong, but I think Fielder hits one tonight. Fielder had an OPS of .819 against RH pitching last season and hit 16 of his 25 HR’s off of righties. Kendrick struggles on the road and I have a feeling that he is going to get blasted tonight.

• Adrian Beltre – Beltre already has 4 hits, 3 runs, and 2 RBI’s this season and will look to continue his hot start tonight against Kendrick who gave up a .357 wOBA to RH batters last season.

• Additional Plays: Shin-Soo Choo, Elvis Andrus, Alex Rios

NY Yankees at Houston

NY Yankees					Houston
Hiroki Kuroda		Vegas Moneyline			Jarred Cosart		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		NYY (-147)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.261	0.735	0.325	17.1%	SP vs. Left	0.176	0.491	0.236	19.3%
SP vs. Right	0.232	0.595	0.266	19.7%	SP vs. Right	0.286	0.837	0.372	5.0%
Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R		Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Hiroki Kuroda – Kuroda was two different pitchers last season. At home he posted a 2.35 ERA, but that dropped all the way to 4.05 on the road. His batting average allowed dropped by almost 60 percentage points on the road. While that makes me a little nervous, I do like the matchup tonight against the Astros who led the league in strike-outs last season. Rating = 7

• Jarred Cosart – Cosart was excellent in his 10 starts last season. He posted a 1.95 ERA while holding batters to a .220 batting average. His K-rate was under 5/9 IP, but if he can continue to make outs, that’s all that really matters. I’d love to recommend him tonight against the Yankees, but I just can’t do it. The Yankees have a ton of firepower in this lineup and I’d much rather take a pitcher that I can rely on for production. Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

New York Yankees

• Mark Teixeira – Teix is typically a slow starter, but he went 2-3 in his first game and after missing most of last season, maybe he will get off to a better start this year. Teixeira has more power from the right side of the plate, but I think he can string another multi-hit game together tonight.

• Additional Plays: Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran

Houston

• Jason Castro – Castro is the one Astros bat that you may want to consider tonight. Kuroda gave up a .325 wOBA last season to LH bats and Castro is dirt cheap across the industry. He should also be batting clean-up.

• Additional Plays: None

San Francisco at Arizona

San Francisco					Arizona
Tim Hudson		Vegas Moneyline			Trevor Cahill		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		ARI (-110)			RIGHT		9.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.236	0.657	0.300	16.8%	SP vs. Left	0.275	0.752	0.342	15.1%
SP vs. Right	0.254	0.654	0.292	18.8%	SP vs. Right	0.247	0.709	0.319	17.0%
Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SFG vs R		Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Tim Hudson – I’m going to breeze through the last few games as time is running out on a very busy Wednesday! Hudson had his struggles on the road last season with a 4.86 ERA. He has a tough matchup against a stacked D-Backs lineup in a game that features the highest total of the night. Rating = 4

• Trevor Cahill – Cahill does not fare much better. Cahill is a low strikeout pitcher that got off to a rough start this season by giving up 5 earned runs in only 4 innings of work. He faces a tough Giants lineup to boot. There are much better options at pitcher than Cahill. Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

• Buster Posey – Posey is off to a fast start this season. He already has 3 hits and 3 RBI’s. Cahill gave up a .319 wOBA to RH batters last season and Posey is good against RH and LH pitching. Taking the best hitter on a team that’s expected to score a lot of runs is never a bad strategy.

• Brandon Belt – Belt homered last night and has a nice matchup against Cahill who gave up a .342 wOBA to LH batters last season. Belt crushes RH pitching and will have the lefty/righty matchup in his favor.

• Additional Plays: Hunter Pence, Angel Pagan, Pablo Sandoval

Arizona

• Paul Goldschmidt – Goldschmidt has a nice matchup at home against Hudson who struggles on the road. Goldy is off to a fast start this season and should see plenty of RBI opportunities tonight.

• Additional Plays: Gerardo Parra, Aaron Hill

Seattle at LA Angels

Seattle					LA Angels
James Paxton		Vegas Moneyline			Hector Santiago		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		LAA (-130)			LEFT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.313	0.790	0.347	29.4%	SP vs. Left	0.241	0.648	0.316	21.1%
SP vs. Right	0.141	0.475	0.221	20.8%	SP vs. Right	0.244	0.744	0.339	20.8%
Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs L		Batter Splits	LAA BvP		LAA vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• James Paxton – Paxton started 4 games last season and he pitched well. He posted a 1.50 ERA with a 0.92 WHIP. Paxton draws a tough matchup against the Angels and their star studded lineup though. Paxton comes into this game as a huge underdog and should be restricted to GPP’s only. Rating = 4

• Hector Santiago – Santiago will make his Angels debut tonight and he actually has a pretty decent matchup. The Mariners typically start 4-5 LH batters and Santiago held lefties to a .241 batting average last season. Santiago should get run support and could very easily be in line for the win. There are other options that offer better upside, but he’s not bad at his price point. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

• Corey Hart – Santiago gave up a .339 wOBA to RH batters last season and Hart has hit LH pitching at a .300 clip over the past 3 seasons. He has a lot of power and could be a very sneaky play tonight.

• Additional Plays: Justin Smoak

L.A. Angels

Mike Trout – Trout is basically in play every night of the MLB season, especially when it’s against a pitcher that can make mistakes. Trout has speed and he has power. He is a threat to steal and base and hit a HR every single night.

• Additional Plays: Albert Pujols, Howie Kendrick

LA Dodgers at San Diego

LA Dodgers					San Diego
Dan Haren		Vegas Moneyline			Tyson Ross		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		LAD (-110)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.253	0.715	0.314	18.8%	SP vs. Left	0.252	0.689	0.323	18.9%
SP vs. Right	0.281	0.774	0.345	22.9%	SP vs. Right	0.198	0.537	0.249	28.2%
Batter Splits	LAD BvP		LAD vs R		Batter Splits	SDP BvP		SDP vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Dan Haren – This game has an even spread and the total is set at 7 runs which opens up the door for both of these pitchers tonight. The problem with Haren is that he gives up too many HR’s. He is one of those pitchers that can be cruising along and then all of the sudden give up 5 runs in an inning. I like that this will be in Petco Park which yielded the fewest runs in baseball last season, but I’m just not sure that I’m ready to trust Haren again. Rating = 6

• Tyson Ross – Ross was great at home last season where he posted a 2.02 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. Ross is a high strike-out pitcher that has plenty of upside for a GPP. He does have to face this tough Dodgers lineup though. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

L.A. Dodgers

• Additional Plays: Yasiel Puig, Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez

San Diego

• Additional Plays: Jedd Gyorko, Everth Cabrera