MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, April 9th - Page 2

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-04-09 07:59:30

Texas at Boston

Texas					Boston
Robbie Ross		Vegas Moneyline			Jake Peavy		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		BOS (-147)			RIGHT		9.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.344	0.921	0.419	23.8%	SP vs. Left	0.243	0.730	0.317	22.2%
SP vs. Right	0.209	0.513	0.243	20.5%	SP vs. Right	0.232	0.651	0.291	18.6%
Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs R		Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Robbie Ross – Ross is a talented young lefty, but I have a hard time targeting aces in Fenway, let alone a young pitcher without much experience. Ross had his struggles on the road last season with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. The Red Sox hit LH pitching well and Ross is a sizable underdog (+140). He should be avoided today. Rating = 3

• Jake Peavy – Peavy really pitched well at home last season with a 2.73 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP. He also had an impressive K/9 of 7.6. While that’s great for Peavy, I’m not sure that I will be targeting him against this tough Rangers lineup who knocked Doubront around yesterday. Peavy could make for a deep GPP play, but should be avoided in cash games. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

Texas

• Shin-Soo Choo – Choo is off to a solid start to the season and hit for a .315 average against RH pitching last season. He has nice power for a leadoff hitter and could take advantage of the very small field in Fenway.

• Additional Plays: Adrian Beltre, Prince Fielder

Boston

• David Ortiz – The Red Sox are one of my favorite teams to stack today. Ross gave up a .419 wOBA to LH batters last season and taking Big Papi against an average pitcher in Fenway never seems like a bad idea. Even though this is a lefty/lefty matchup, Ortiz hits for a great average against all pitching.

• Additional Plays: Mike Napoli, Jonny Gomes, Dustin Pedroia

Miami at Washington

Miami					Washington
Jacob Turner		Vegas Moneyline			Jordan Zimmermann		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		WAS (-177)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.254	0.703	0.323	12.1%	SP vs. Left	0.262	0.699	0.308	17.0%
SP vs. Right	0.269	0.757	0.344	17.5%	SP vs. Right	0.212	0.581	0.266	20.3%
Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs R		Batter Splits	WSN BvP		WSN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jacob Turner – Turner has not pitched well since the beginning of last season. In his 12 starts last season he posted a 4.97 ERA while allowing opponents to hit for a .287 batting average. Turner gave up 8 hits and 5 earned runs while only striking out 1 batter in his first start this season. He is not a viable fantasy option. Rating = 2

• Jordan Zimmermann – Zimmermann will draw the start today against a Marlins offense that got off to a very hot start this season but has since cooled off. Gio pitched well against them last night and I’m expecting a similar effort out of Zimmermann today. Zimmermann posted a 2.61 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP at Nationals Park last season and should pitch well in his first start there this year. Rating = 9

Batter Grind Down

Miami

• Zimmermann has an extremely low WHIP and a pretty decent K-rate. That means that he doesn’t allow many base runners and often racks up a good number of K’s against his opponents. That does not bode well for the Marlins’ bats tonight.

• Additional Plays: None

Washington

• Bryce Harper – Harper’s price is down on both FD and DS and I will continue to target him when he has a favorable matchup. He had a hit and a run last night and has a great matchup against Turner who gave up a .323 wOBA to LH batters last season. Could this be the day that Harper hits his first HR of the season?

• Additional Plays: Adam LaRoche, Jasyon Werth

Baltimore at NY Yankees

Baltimore					NY Yankees
Miguel Gonzalez		Vegas Moneyline			Masahiro Tanaka		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		NYY (-178)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.241	0.685	0.307	18.0%	SP vs. Left
SP vs. Right	0.245	0.730	0.321	15.7%	SP vs. Right
Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R		Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Miguel Gonzalez – Gonzalez got rocked in his first start of the season as he gave up 7 earned runs to the Tigers in only 3 innings of work. Tonight he faces a Yankees lineup that is finally starting to heat up. Gonzalez is one of the biggest underdogs on the board (+168) and should be avoided in all leagues tonight. Rating = 2

• Masahiro Tanaka – Tanaka gave up a HR to his first major league batter, but he settled down after that and struck out 8 batters in 7 innings of work. Tanaka is going to be a terrific play as batters will face him for the first time ever. It may take a game or two for batters to get a beat on his pitching. I will be targeting him in all leagues tonight. I’m predicting double-digit K’s for Tanaka tonight. Rating = 9

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

• You could go with Chris Davis or a red hot Matt Wieters here, but I think Tanaka is going to keep hitters guessing tonight and I have a feeling there will be a lot of swinging strikes here. I’m avoiding all Orioles bats in cash games.

• Additional Plays: None

New York Yankees

• Jacoby Ellsbury – Ellsbury is one of the only Yankee hitters that is off to a fast start this season. He has a .360 batting average with 3 stolen bases on the season. Ellsbury hit for a .328 batting average against RH pitching last season and should continue his hot start against Gonzalez.

• Additional Plays: Carlos Beltran, Alfonso Soriano, Brian McCann, Yangervis Solarte

Milwaukee at Philadelphia

Milwaukee					Philadelphia
Matt Garza		Vegas Moneyline			Roberto Hernandez		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		MIL (-128)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.271	0.724	0.324	21.7%	SP vs. Left	0.305	0.889	0.399	17.0%
SP vs. Right	0.231	0.673	0.305	19.9%	SP vs. Right	0.253	0.640	0.298	18.2%
Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs R		Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Matt Garza – Garza looked terrific in his first start for the Brewers. Even though he picked up the loss, he struck out 7 batters in 8 innings of work while only giving up 1 earned run. Garza has a terrific K/9 of 7.9 and has nice upside tonight against the Phillies. With Chase Utley likely out again, Garza should dominate this Phillies lineup. Rating = 8

• Roberto Hernandez – Hernandez is not a pitcher that I can trust in cash games. He has been a high ERA, high WHIP pitcher over the last 3 years and often loses his command. While he can certainly have those outings where he strikes out 10 batters in a shutout, they are few and far between. I’ll pass on him today against the Brew Crew. Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

• Ryan Braun – While I certainly wasn’t expecting a 3 HR game from him yesterday, hopefully everyone read the Grind Down and plugged Braun into their lineups. Braun has a nice matchup again today against Hernandez.

• Additional Plays: Scooter Gennett

Philadelphia

• The Phillies will likely be without Chase Utley again today which is really a big blow to their lineup. He has been their best hitter early on in the season. I would much rather be on the Garza side of this matchup and will be avoiding the Phillies in cash games.

• Additional Plays: Ryan Howard (GPP), Domonic Brown (GPP)

Houston at Toronto

Houston					Toronto
Lucas Harrell		Vegas Moneyline			Brandon Morrow		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		TOR (-180)			RIGHT		9.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.255	0.768	0.347	12.4%	SP vs. Left	0.301	1.014	0.428	16.4%
SP vs. Right	0.329	0.888	0.400	12.8%	SP vs. Right	0.268	0.697	0.311	18.6%
Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs R		Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Lucas Harrell – Harrell still has a starting job after giving up 7 hits, 3 walks, and 5 earned runs over 3 innings of work against the Angels. Harrell is not a pitcher that should be on anyone’s fantasy radar. He posted a 5.86 ERA with a 1.71 WHIP last season. The Blue Jays will be a popular team to stack today and for good reason. Rating = 1

• Brandon Morrow – Morrow is going to be a very interesting play tonight and I am very tempted to take the bait. This Astros offense has scored 2 runs or less in 5 of their last 6 games and Morrow has been a high strikeout pitcher in the past. In 2012 he posted a 2.96 ERA and a 7.8 K/9. He hasn’t pitched well over his last 11 starts though and is probably better suited as a GPP play. Rating = 7

Batter Grind Down

Houston

• Jason Castro – Morrow gave up a .428 wOBA and a 1.01 OPS to LH batters last season so you may want to target a LH bat or two from the Astros. Castro has nice power against RH pitching and is cheap across the industry.

• Additional Plays: Jonathan Villar

Toronto

• Jose Bautista – Joey Bats hit his 4th HR of the season last night and will look to tack on more tonight against Harrell who gave up a .400 wOBA and a .888 OPS to RH batters last season. Bautista is one of the top plays in the OF.

• Edwin Encarnacion – E5 has yet to hit a HR this season, but maybe a matchup against the struggling Harrell can get him going. His price is depressed across the industry and he hit 31 of his 36 HR’s off of RH pitching last season.

• Additional Plays: Adam Lind, Melky Cabrera, Colby Rasmus

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