MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, August 6th Page Three

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-08-06 17:57:16

San Francisco at Milwaukee

San Francisco					Milwaukee
Ryan Vogelsong		Vegas Moneyline			Yovani Gallardo		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		MIL (-140)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.282	0.758	0.334	18.80%	SP vs. Left	0.213	0.600	0.275	17.40%
SP vs. Right	0.238	0.693	0.308	20.50%	SP vs. Right	0.265	0.715	0.316	19.80%
Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SFG vs R		Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Ryan Vogelsong – Vogelsong has been very inconsistent this season. He seems to show up one start and then get rocked in his next outing. I like to see more consistency from my starting pitchers which makes Vogelsong an easy pitcher to avoid tonight. Plus, he has a tough matchup against the Brewers in the HR-friendly Miller Park. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6300 FD, $12950 DD, $7200 DK, $75000 FF, $20500 SS, $13100 FTD

• Yovani Gallardo – Gallardo largely goes unnoticed in the daily fantasy world because there are always aces on the mound that you can pay up for or cheaper options with just as much upside. That said, he’s pitched well this season with a 3.38 ERA (3.55 xFIP) and a K/9 of 7.0. The Giants are a pretty average team against RH pitching and I see Gallardo as a pretty average option at pitcher tonight. Rating = 6

Salaries: $7100 FD, $15250 DD, $7500 DK, $94400 FF, $22000 SS, $14950 FTD

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Brandon Belt – If you are looking for a potentially cheap HR, Belt makes a nice play at 1B. He has great power against RH pitching and is playing in a ballpark that is very favorable to LH hitters in terms of HR’s.

Additional Plays: Hunter Pence

Milwaukee

Carlos Gomez – This isn’t exactly the best matchup in terms of handedness, but Gomez hits RH pitching well and is coming off of a big game last night. He also gives you the dual threat of being able to hit HR’s and steal bases.

Additional Plays: Gerardo Parra

Boston at St. Louis

Boston					St. Louis
Joe Kelly		Vegas Moneyline			Shelby Miller		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		STL (-148)			RIGHT		8
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.338	0.841	0.373	12.40%	SP vs. Left	0.252	0.760	0.337	14.60%
SP vs. Right	0.232	0.700	0.309	20.00%	SP vs. Right	0.240	0.708	0.317	16.40%
Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs R		Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Joe Kelly – Kelly will make his first start as a member of the Red Sox and he gets to face his former team tonight. Revenge game anyone? Kelly is a pretty average RH pitcher that may try to force the issue tonight against his former ballclub. I have a feeling the Cardinals will come out on top of this matchup. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5600 FD, $10750 DD, $6600 DK, $74600 FF, $16800 SS, $10750 FTD

• Shelby Miller – Miller is walking way too many batters for my liking. Last season he had a 23% strikeout rate with a 7% walk rate. This season he has a 15% strikeout rate with an 11% walk rate. He is not trending in the right direction at all and he has a very pedestrian xFIP of 4.69 this season. Even though he’s the favorite here, there are too many red flags for me to use him in my cash game lineups. Rating = 5

Salaries: $5500 FD, $11050 DD, $5900 DK, $69900 FF, $16200 SS, $11050 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Boston

David Ortiz – Miller has managed to keep RH hitters in check this season, but he’s giving up a .337 wOBA to LH hitters. Ortiz has shown that he still has a ton left in the tank and I don’t mind him at all against the struggling Miller.

Additional Plays: Brock Holt, Daniel Nava

St. Louis

Matt Adams – Mr. consistent makes a great play at 1B once again tonight. He has crushed RH pitching all season long and gets to face his former teammate who has given up a .373 wOBA to LH hitters this season.

Additional Plays: Matt Carpenter, Kolten Wong

Chicago Cubs at Colorado

Chicago Cubs					Colorado
Jake Arrieta		Vegas Moneyline			Jordan Lyles		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		CHC (-113)			RIGHT		9.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.194	0.521	0.236	28.60%	SP vs. Left	0.248	0.737	0.328	13.90%
SP vs. Right	0.190	0.487	0.221	26.30%	SP vs. Right	0.240	0.680	0.302	20.00%
Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs R		Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jake Arrieta – Arrieta is having a breakout season. He owns a 2.11 ERA with a K/9 of 9.7 and he’s only giving up a HR on 2.6% of his fly balls. He would be in play in almost any other situation, but I’m not breaking my cardinal rule of avoiding all pitchers in Coors Field. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7700 FD, $16400 DD, $8300 DK, $124300 FF, $27000 SS, $16400 FTD

• Jordan Lyles – Lyles will come off of the DL to make the start tonight for the Rockies. The Cubs have not hit RH pitching well this season, but this is still Coors Field we are talking about and Lyles may be a bit rusty in his first game back. Rating = 3

Salaries: $6700 FD, $12200 DD, $5700 DK, $57400 FF, $16500 SS, $12200 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Anthony Rizzo – Lyles has given up a career .347 wOBA to LH hitters and Rizzo gets to face him in the most hitter-friendly ballpark in baseball. Miggy will likely be the popular play at 1B, but don’t be afraid to use Rizzo as a contrarian pick (it’s weird that a hitter in Coors is a contrarian play).

Additional Plays: Javier Baez, Starlin Castro, Arismendy Alcantara

Colorado

Corey Dickerson – I always love targeting Dickerson against RH pitching, especially in Coors. Dickerson owns a .410 wOBA against righties this season and his price has come down quite a bit.

Additional Plays: Charlie Blackmon, Justin Morneau

Kansas City at Arizona

Kansas City					Arizona
Yordano Ventura		Vegas Moneyline			Josh Collmenter		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		KCR (-123)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.247	0.693	0.308	18.70%	SP vs. Left	0.300	0.796	0.349	14.00%
SP vs. Right	0.253	0.718	0.319	21.10%	SP vs. Right	0.233	0.707	0.309	16.90%
Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KCR vs R		Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Yordano Ventura – The biggest question with Ventura is where his strikeouts have gone. In the first 2 months of the season, Ventura was averaging just over 9 K’s per 9 innings. Since the start of June, he is only averaging 6.1 K’s per 9. That really hurts his fantasy appeal. That said, he is facing a depleted Diamondbacks offense tonight so he could be worth a flier in a GPP. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $7000 FD, $14050 DD, $6700 DK, $89000 FF, $19400 SS, $14050 FTD

• Josh Collmenter – Despite Chase Field being a hitter-friendly environment, Collmenter has really pitched well there this season. He has a 3.10 ERA at home while holding batters to a .217 batting average. He’s not exactly a high strikeout pitcher though and his opponent strikes out fewer times than any team in baseball. His upside is extremely limited tonight. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6600 FD, $10600 DD, $6500 DK, $72600 FF, $16300 SS, $10600 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Alex Gordon – The Royals offense exploded for 12 runs in last night’s game against the D-Backs and they’ll look to keep it going tonight against Collmenter. Gordon has really hit RH pitching well this season and Collmenter has given up a .349 wOBA to LH hitters.

Additional Plays: Norichika Aoki, Salvador Perez

Arizona

Ender Inciarte – Inciarte is a great value play in the OF tonight. He has nice speed on the bases and has been good against RH pitching. He should be batting leadoff tonight against Ventura.

Additional Plays: David Peralta, Miguel Montero

LA Dodgers at LA Angels

LA Dodgers					LA Angels
Dan Haren		Vegas Moneyline			Matt Shoemaker		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		LAA (-135)			RIGHT		9
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.253	0.758	0.327	22.50%	SP vs. Left	0.293	0.825	0.359	21.60%
SP vs. Right	0.294	0.837	0.362	12.30%	SP vs. Right	0.240	0.679	0.297	24.80%
Batter Splits	LAD BvP		LAD vs R		Batter Splits	LAA BvP		LAA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Dan Haren – Haren has been atrocious in his last 5 starts. He’s given up 26 earned runs over that stretch. Even worse, Haren has given up at least 1 HR in 14 of his last 15 starts. At this point, he should be well off of your radar, especially considering his matchup against the star-studded Angels. Rating = 2

Salaries: $6500 FD, $12400 DD, $5400 DK, $45400 FF, $15200 SS, $12400 FTD

• Matt Shoemaker – Shoemaker has a 4.09 ERA on the season, but he’s had some bad luck as his BABIP of .323 is much higher than average. Shoemaker’s xFIP is sitting at 3.23 which suggests that he is pitching well in terms of what he can control (strikeouts, walks HR’s, etc). He does draw a tough matchup against the Dodgers, but I expect run support to come in bunches so even an average outing could result in him being in line for the win. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $7200 FD, $13450 DD, $6600 DK, $115700 FF, $20800 SS, $13450 FTD

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Dee Gordon – Shoemaker has struggled against LH hitters and Gordon has really become a solid hitter this season in addition to his great speed. His stolen base potential goes up with a righty on the mound and his price is affordable on both DK and FD tonight.

Additional Plays: Adrian Gonzalez

LA Angels

Mike Trout – Haren has now given up 22 HR’s on the season. He’s been a fly ball pitcher for the majority of his career and he’s giving up a 15.4% HR per fly ball rate which is just not going to get the job done. I’m expecting a few balls to leave the park in Anaheim tonight.

Additional Plays: Kole Calhoun, Josh Hamilton, Albert Pujols