MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 25th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-06-25 23:19:25

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay

Pittsburgh					Tampa Bay
Charlie Morton		Vegas Moneyline			David Price		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		TBR (-158)			LEFT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.271	0.678	0.333	18.1%	SP vs. Left	0.223	0.580	0.263	22.4%
SP vs. Right	0.236	0.587	0.282	17.0%	SP vs. Right	0.265	0.698	0.307	23.2%
Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs L		Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TBR vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Charlie Morton – Morton has pitched well this season with a 3.47 ERA and a K/9 of 7.1. He has historically struggled vs. LH hitters, but has really improved on that this season as he has held them to a .283 wOBA. Morton is typically better at home though (2.22 home ERA vs. 4.62 road ERA) and he may have trouble getting any run support with Price pitching for the Rays. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6900 FD, $NA DS, $NA DD, $8100 DK, $82900 FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• David Price – Price is a pitcher that I love to target because he throws a ton of strikes. This can often lead him into trouble, but it also leads him to a lot of strikeouts. He’s struck out 133 batters and has only given up 13 walks on the season. I love that K/BB ratio. The Pirates are a team that hits LH pitching well, but Price is in play thanks to his high K-rate and his ability to pitch deep into games. Rating = 8

Salaries: $10000 FD, $ DS, $ DD, $11400 DK, $123200 FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Andrew McCutchen – While Price is a fairly daunting opponent, McCutchen is one of the best in baseball against LH pitching. He has a .477 wOBA against southpaws this season and Price has struggled to keep the ball in the park as has given up 9 HR’s in only 9 home starts this season.

Additional Plays: None

Tampa Bay

Evan Longoria – Longoria’s numbers have been down this year, especially against RH pitching. That said, his price has come way down and he has a pretty decent matchup against Morton who has given up a .334 wOBA to RHB’s this season.

Additional Plays: Ben Zobrist

Washington at Milwaukee

Washington					Milwaukee
Stephen Strasburg		Vegas Moneyline			Marco Estrada		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		WAS (-130)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.225	0.612	0.282	23.6%	SP vs. Left	0.204	0.661	0.293	21.8%
SP vs. Right	0.226	0.592	0.277	29.9%	SP vs. Right	0.260	0.772	0.338	22.7%
Batter Splits	WSN BvP		WSN vs R		Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Stephen Strasburg – Strasburg is looking to bounce back after two subpar outings by his standards. He gave up 3 earned runs to the Cardinals and then gave up 4 earned runs to the Braves. On the season his ERA sits at 3.24 while averaging 10.9 K’s per 9 innings. Today he faces a Brewers’ offense that is ranked 7th against RH pitching this season (.327 wOBA). His tough matchup combined with his struggles on the road throughout his career make him an overpriced option. Rating = 7

UPDATE: After an extremely long game last night, the Brewers will rest Braun, Lucroy, and Ramirez. Bump Strasburg up to a 9

Salaries: $9700 FD, $23130 DS, $NA DD, $10700 DK, $118900 FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Marco Estrada – Estrada should not be on your fantasy radar today. He has given up at least 3 earned runs in 10 of his last 11 starts. His ERA on the season has risen to 5.22. While his K/9 isn’t bad, he has not been pitching well and runs into a Nationals’ offense that has been much better over the last few weeks. Rating = 4

Salaries: $7000 FD, $13649 DS, $ DD, $7500 DK, $61600 FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Adam LaRoche – LaRoche has made the Grind Down’s top plays 3 days in a row now. Once again, he has a great matchup against a RHP in a HR-friendly ballpark. LaRoche has a .396 wOBA against RH pitching and Estrada has given up a .331 wOBA to LHB’s this season.

Additional Plays: Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon

Milwaukee

Even though I don’t have Strasburg ranked as my top pitcher today, I certainly will not be targeting any hitters against him. He has held both LHB’s and RHB’s under a .285 wOBA since the start of 2013.

St. Louis at Colorado

St. Louis					Colorado
Marco Gonzales		Vegas Moneyline			Yohan Flande		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		STL (-111)			LEFT		11.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left					SP vs. Left
SP vs. Right					SP vs. Right
Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs L		Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Marco Gonzales – Gonzales was the Cardinals’ first round draft pick this season and is a highly touted prospect. He will be called up today and have an extremely tough test right off the bat as he has to face the Rockies in the most hitter-friendly ballpark in baseball. Gonzales posted a 2.08 ERA with 101 K’s over 100 innings of work, but will likely struggle in his debut. Targeting a rookie’s debut in Coors may not be the best idea. Rating = 2

Salaries: $ FD, $10598 DS, $NA DD, $5300 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Yohan Flande – Flande will also be making his major league debut today. He is quite the prospect that Gonzales is though and has posted pretty pedestrian numbers thus far in the minors: 4.42 ERA with 52 K’s over 71 innings of work. The run total for this game is set at 11.0 runs and both pitchers should be avoided. Rating = 2

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Allen Craig – The Cardinals may struggle the first time through the lineup, but should be able to knock around the rookie Flande today. Craig has a .351 wOBA against southpaws this season and should see plenty of RBI opportunities.

Additional Plays: Matt Holliday, Yadier Molina, Jhonny Peralta, Matt Adams, Matt Carpenter

Colorado

Troy Tulowitzki – As Dan Back so famously says on his podcast, “if you are not playing this guy in your head to head matchups, you are just going to lose.” Tulo is facing a rookie lefty in Coors. Not only has Tulo raked at home all season long, but he has a .551 wOBA against southpaws.

Additional Plays: Drew Stubbs, Charlie Blackmon, Wilin Rosario

San Diego at San Francisco

San Diego					San Francisco
Ian Kennedy		Vegas Moneyline			Tim Lincecum		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		SFG (-130)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.254	0.774	0.340	23.8%	SP vs. Left	0.253	0.716	0.327	21.3%
SP vs. Right	0.254	0.706	0.324	21.0%	SP vs. Right	0.253	0.725	0.325	24.3%
Batter Splits	SDP BvP		SDP vs R		Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SFG vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Ian Kennedy – Kennedy has had a very solid season, but he always seems to given up a couple of runs in each of his starts. He is sporting a 3.90 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and a K/9 of 9.6. The Giants are ranked 13th against RH pitching this season and Kennedy has enjoyed success against the Giants in the past and makes a nice upside play for the price. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6700 FD, $15511 DS, $NA DD, $8400 DK, $86100 FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Tim Lincecum – Lincecum often gets off to slow starts and ends up throwing 40-50 pitches in the first 2 innings. You can often tell how his start is going to go just by watching the first couple of batters that he faces. You have to love his matchup against the Padres though. Even though they have had success against the Giants’ pitching staff in this series, they are still ranked dead last against RH pitching. Lincecum threw a no-hitter against the Padres last season and should be able to post a quality outing here. Rating = 6

Salaries: $6800 FD, $14548 DS, $ DD, $7800 DK, $62600 FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Seth Smith – As mentioned above, the Padres have been awful against RH pitching this season, but Smith has been very good with a .406 wOBA against righties. He also has a decent track record against Lincecum as he has 6 XBH’s in 37 career at bats.

Additional Plays: Chase Headley

San Francisco

Buster Posey – Posey is starting to heat up with 13 hits over his last 10 games. He has a nice track record against Kennedy and owns a .323 wOBA against righties this season.

Additional Plays: Pablo Sandoval

Miami at Philadelphia

Miami					Philadelphia
Henderson Alvarez		Vegas Moneyline			A.J. Burnett		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		PHI (-120)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.273	0.704	0.315	13.6%	SP vs. Left	0.267	0.763	0.354	19.7%
SP vs. Right	0.240	0.587	0.273	15.3%	SP vs. Right	0.213	0.569	0.256	26.8%
Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs R		Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Henderson Alvarez – Alvarez is one the more underrated fantasy pitchers in baseball. On the season he is boasting a 2.39 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a K/9 of 5.8. While his numbers have been much better at Marlins Park than they have been on the road, he draws a nice matchup against the Phillies who are ranked 27th against RH pitching this season (.272 wOBA). Alvarez is in play on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 6

Salaries: $7500 FD, $13924 DS, $13800 DD, $7700 DK, $NA FF, $21700 SS, $13800 FTD

• A.J. Burnett – Burnett is a pitcher that can overcome a few earned runs as long as he is striking batters out. The problem is that he’s only struck out more than 5 batters 1 time in his last 7 starts. I see him as more of a GPP play than a cash game play as he has been very inconsistent this season. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7300 FD, $16369 DS, $13200 DD, $7800 DK, $ FF, $21300 SS, $13200 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Garrett Jones – Jones is a great value play at 1B tonight. Burnett has given up a .371 wOBA to LHB’s this season and Jones has a .354 wOBA against RH pitching.

Additional Plays: Derek Dietrich, Giancarlo Stanton

Philadelphia

Chase Utley – Utley has cooled off of late, but all that means to us is that his price has come down. He is still hitting RH pitching to a tune of a .363 wOBA and he’s facing Alvarez who hasn’t been great on the road this season.

Additional Plays: Jimmy Rollins

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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