MLB Odds, Picks, & Predictions for Today — Wednesday, August 18th
MLB betting analyst Sloan Piva peruses baseball odds every day to deliver his best bets. Keep reading to find his three picks for Wednesday, August 18th.
Some weeks, you just feel out of whack. This entire week has been that way for me, after my 36-year old body engaged in some bachelor partying for my soon-to-be brother-in-law over the weekend. My whole body has been in pain since Sunday, and my brain feels like it’s fogged up.
So, I’ll blame the fog for the 0-2 mark on my Bets of the Day Tuesday. I’ll also blame Blue Jays rookie Alek Manoah for blowing up against the Nationals, and the Reds for only scoring one run against the Cubbies. Let’s just chalk the whole day up to brain fogginess.
Regardless of our Tuesday stumbles, our season-long Bets of the Day record remains 12 games above .500 at 52-40. And we will continue to cruise north of the .500 border as the season wanes.
Let’s seize the day, pump some electrolytes, and make ourselves some money! Here’s our Bets of the Day for Wednesday, a new day and a new chance to hit it big.
All odds are from BetMGM, and all stats are from MLB.com and Baseball Reference.
MLB Odds, Picks, & Predictions for Today
Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers
Pitching Matchup: Shohei Ohtani vs. Tarik Skubal
MLB Bet: Angels -155
Wednesday evening gives us another opportunity to revel in the brilliance that is two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani. The MLB-leader in home runs has 39 long-balls on the season to go with a staggering .644 slugging percentage. His OPS currently stands at 1.008.
But Showtime has been masterful on the mound, too. He’s 7-1 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.087 WHIP, and he strikes out 11 batters per nine innings. Opponents are slashing .188/.285/.308 against him, with an OPS of .593. He’s a two-way beast on a collision course for AL MVP.
On Tuesday, Ohtani will be on a collision course with the Tigers, who are 58-63 on the season and just 5-5 in their last 10 games. Detroit averages just 4.13 runs per home game, which ranks worse than all but six MLB teams.
Taking the mound against Ohtani will be Tarik Skubal, who must be ecstatic that July is over. The burly 24-year old surrendered 18 runs across five games last month, including two five-run affairs. He has rebounded a bit since, with two August starts of no-run ball (5 IP vs. BOS 8/5, 6 IP @ BAL 8/11), but I’m not convinced he will fare that well against Ohtani and the Angels.
Showtime has quite the effect on his ballclub. He has won four of his last five starts, and seven of his last 10 without one loss in the process. You would have to be crazy to bet against this guy, so -155 feels like a gift. Also watch for rookie Jo Adell, who hit a grand slam Tuesday.
Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins
Pitching Matchup: Charlie Morton vs. Jesus Luzardo
Pick: Braves -1.5 (-130)
Charlie Morton and the Braves seem to be moving in the complete opposite direction of Jesus Luzardo and the Marlins, so we will confidently go with Atlanta here.
The Braves have gone 8-2 in their last 10 games, cruising to the top of the NL East standings at 64-56. The Marlins have scuffled, with their bats unable to keep up with their rotation, and sit in the basement of the division at 51-69.
Morton had a rough start to his 2021 campaign, but he has sparkled since late May. Since May 25, the veteran hurler has a 9-2 record and a whopping 10 quality starts. He has moved his ERA from 5.08 on May 1 to 3.49 today.
Meanwhile, Luzardo’s ERA is 7.52 and his WHIP is a paltry 1.709. He has surrendered 12 earned runs over his past two starts, neither of which lasted beyond five innings.
Led by Freddie Freeman, Atlanta once again sits among the top 10 in runs per game this season with 4.91 per game. Miami, meanwhile, ranks 27th with just 4.01 runs per game. The Braves are the easy pick, and worth anywhere below -160 on the run line.
Houston Astros at Kansas City Royals
Pitching Matchup: Zack Greinke vs. Brady Singer
Pick: Astros -175
Another easy one. The Astros are an AL West-leading 70-49 this season, while the Royals sit in the cellar of the AL Central at 51-67. Houston leads the MLB in scoring with 5.33 runs per game, while KC ranks 24th with 4.09 runs per game.
Greinke has a studly 11-3 record this season, and he has won three of his past five starts. He has surrendered more than three runs in a game just twice since May 25. He may not have the strikeout numbers he enjoyed in the prime of his career, but he has certainly remained effective against opponents both strong and weak. And the Royals, I must say, are weak.
Brady Singer won’t help Kansas City’s cause very much. The second-year righty is just 3-8 on the season, and he hasn’t won a game since June 1 (taking the L or no decision in nine straight games). He has given up 12 runs over 5.2 innings across his last two starts. The behemoth offense of the Astros should feast on Singer’s soul this evening.
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