MLB Player Props for Friday, 9/12: Best Bets & Predictions Today
What kind of performances can we expect on Friday from Luis Castillo, Yusei Kikuchi, and Justin Verlander? Follow along as our MLB betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets for Friday, September 12th. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more MLB plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
Friday’s MLB slate features 15 games, beginning with the Rays and Cubs from Wrigley Field at 2:20 PM ET. Baseball fans will have plenty of entertainment options to begin their weekend, with a number of star pitchers scheduled to be on the bump – including Tarik Skubal, Jacob deGrom, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
As always, be sure to monitor our MLB starting lineups page throughout the day, as unexpected changes in the batting order can result in value opportunities in the betting and DFS markets.
Another reminder – it’s not a bad beat, or unlucky, if you bet a player to hit a home run and his fly ball dies on the warning track because it’s 40 degrees with the wind blowing in! Before locking in any bets, use our MLB weather page, curated by Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. There are countless edges to be found if we make the right reads on possible rain delays and great hitting weather, just to name a few. Taking a look at the weather report can save us from a bad bet that otherwise looks good on the surface.
Below, you can find my 3 picks for Friday, September 12th!
Editor’s Note: Don’t live in a state with sports betting? Use our Underdog promo code & PrizePicks referral code GRINDERS for over $1,000 in sign-up bonuses for fantasy pick’em contests today.
Best MLB Player Props for Friday, September 12
Here are my top player prop bets for today, with the first pitch scheduled for 2:20 PM ET on Friday, September 12th:
- Luis Castillo Over/Under 17.5 Outs Recorded
- Yusei Kikuchi Over/Under 15.5 Outs Recorded
- Justin Verlander Over/Under 15.5 Outs Recorded
Luis Castillo OVER 17.5 Outs Recorded (-135, bet365)
BET365Castillo has struggled with his efficiency in recent weeks, but the Mariners desperately need 6 innings out of him tonight. Entering play, the Mariners have used Andres Munoz, Matt Brash, and Eduard Bazardo each 3 of the last 4 days. Gabe Speier, Caleb Ferguson, Carlos Vargas, Luke Jackson, and Jose Castillo have each appeared in 2 of the last 3 days.
Castillo has found himself in this situation before, most recently on August 8th against Tampa Bay. In that outing, Castillo seemingly made a concerted effort to pitch to contact, which helped him get through 7 innings on 99 pitches to help preserve the team’s arm barn.
The Mariners would obviously love to win this game, but their top priority is likely to be resetting their bullpen after consecutive extra-inning affairs. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Castillo throw close to 110 pitches tonight.
Yusei Kikuchi OVER 15.5 Outs Recorded (-110, DraftKings)
DRAFTKINGSKikuchi doesn’t work deep into games often, but tonight could be a rare opportunity for him to get into the 6th inning. Following an extra-innings game last night against the Mariners, the Angels have now used Kenley Jansen, Luis Garcia, Robert Stephenson, and Jose Fermin each in consecutive days. Brock Burke and Andrew Chafin didn’t pitch on Wednesday but have been used in 2 of the last 3 days. The Angels probably won’t have long reliever Jose Urena available tonight either, after he threw 71 pitches only 2 days ago.
Simply, the Angels could use some length from Kikuchi in this spot. He hasn’t been terribly efficient in recent weeks, and this isn’t a particularly good matchup for him against a patient Seattle lineup. Still, every out matters when a bullpen is this taxed. If Kikuchi’s pitch count is in a spot to record even 1 out in the 6th inning, the Angels will likely give him that opportunity to go back out for another frame.
Justin Verlander OVER 15.5 Outs Recorded (+100, FanDuel)
FANDUELVerlander isn’t a 5-and-dive guy, which makes this line a little bit interesting. The Dodgers have the perception of being a team that isn’t a favorable matchup for any pitcher, but the reality is that the Dodgers’ offense ranks 16th in wRC+, 15th in OPS, and 10th in ISO against RHP during the last 14 days. Verlander hasn’t been particularly efficient of late, averaging 4.22 pitches per batter faced, but the pitcher-friendly weather conditions by The Bay could help him get into the 6th inning here.
Image Credit: Imagn