MLB Player Props Today: Nola, Kelly, Plus a PrizePicks Prediction (October 17)
What kind of performances can we expect on Tuesday from Aaron Nola and Merrill Kelly? Follow along as our MLB betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets and DFS pick’em predictions for today – Tuesday, October 17, 2023. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more baseball props, at ScoresandOdds.
Happy Tuesday! Today’s MLB Postseason slate features only one contest, but it promises to be a good one between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies. First pitch is scheduled for 8:07 p.m. ET from Citizens Bank Park.
We went 2-1 on our recommendations in this article yesterday and are 10-2 (83.3%) across our last 12 postseason player prop recommendations! During the regular season, we went 103-63-6 (62.6%) across our last 172 recommendations in this article. We were 120-59 (67.2%) on pitcher prop recommendations.
Below are three prop leans for October 17!
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MLB Player Props Today
- Aaron Nola u5.5 Strikeouts
- Merrill Kelly o13.5 Outs Recorded
- Aaron Nola More Than 16.0 Outs Recorded
Aaron Nola u5.5 Strikeouts (+106), FanDuel
Aaron Nola has the potential to miss a lot of bats, but he also has the ability to generate a lot of weak contact, which could be the game plan for a cold and windy Game 2 in Philadelphia. Across the final month of the regular season, the Diamondbacks ranked 12th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching and 23rd in hard-contact percentage. In essence, this Arizona lineup is skilled at putting the ball in play, but they do not often do a lot of damage with their bats. In a matchup such as this one, it would not be surprising at all to see Nola pitch to contact on a more frequent basis, trusting his defense to make plays behind him. At plus money, this is a worthwhile stab on Tuesday night.
Merill Kelly o13.5 Outs Recorded (-145), DraftKings
We have seen certain managers handle their starting pitchers as if they were fragile little leaguers during these playoffs, but Tony Lovullo has not been one of them. In the Wild Card round, Zac Gallen went six innings, despite allowing two earned runs and plenty of traffic on the basepaths. In the Division Series, both Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen were entrusted to pitch into the sixth inning, despite Gallen once again putting an abundance of traffic on the bases. Kelly has a tough matchup tonight and the Arizona bullpen is rested, but this is still a low market number. The forecast has the temperature at first pitch tonight around 50 degrees, with pitcher-friendly wind conditions. The Diamondbacks bullpen, while rested, is not particularly deep with high-quality arms, which reduces the incentive for Lovullo to prematurely dip into his arm barn. If Kelly cannot get 14 outs tonight, Arizona is likely looking at an 0-2 series hole.
MLB DFS Pick’em
Aaron Nola More than 16.0 Outs Recorded, PrizePicks
In Game 1, Manager Rob Thompson used Seranthony Dominguez, Jose Alvarado, and Craig Kimbrel out of the bullpen in relief of Zack Wheeler, who went 6.0 innings. Though Philadelphia’s bullpen is relatively well-rested and should have everyone available for Game 2, there is not much incentive for Thompson to remove Nola early in this game if he is pitching well. In a best-of-seven format, getting length from starting pitchers is a key to keeping the bullpen fresh for games when the starting pitchers will be in hyper-proximity matchups. Asking Nola to get 16 outs or more on a cold, pitcher-friendly night at Citizens Bank Park is a reasonable task.
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MLB Props Results – Wager Type
HITTER PROPS
Dinger Tuesday: 4-11-1
Hitter: 119-110-6
Stolen Base: 1-2
PITCHER PROPS
Hits Allowed: 3-2
Outs Recorded: 35-20
Strikeout: 73-34-3
Walk: 1-0
Earned Runs Allowed: 0-0-1
MISCELLANEOUS PROPS
1st Inning: 0-4