MLB PrizePicks Predictions Today: Top Plays for Monday, May 6th
Traditional MLB DFS formats aren’t the only way to profit from daily fantasy baseball. MLB PrizePicks is a great fantasy pick’em site where we can take today’s projections versus theirs and combine two or more baseball predictions for sizeable payouts.
In this space, we’ll explore a few PrizePicks plays for the upcoming MLB slate. This article isn’t the be-all, end-all of great plays or a recommendation for a full ticket; it’s simply a starting place for you to explore thinking about the game within the game. Maybe you want to scatter these plays across entries. Maybe there are only two or three you think are worth playing. Daily fantasy pick’em gives us the flexibility to make only the plays in which we think there is value rather than being forced to create a full lineup while competing against the best DFS players in the industry.
PrizePicks is daily fantasy baseball made simple, and our MLB PrizePicks tool makes the process even simpler.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
If you haven’t signed up for a PrizePicks account, make sure to use the PrizePicks promo code ROTOBONUS and get a $100 deposit match.
MLB PrizePicks Predictions for Monday, May 6th
- Zack Wheeler MORE Than 18.5 Outs (DEMON)
- Mitch Keller MORE Than 6.5 Strikeouts (DEMON)
- Jack Flaherty LESS Than 5.5 Strikeouts
- Fernando Tatis MORE Than 1.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
Zack Wheeler MORE Than 18.5 Outs (DEMON)
Wheeler is one of the few legitimate active aces in the league. Projected for 101 pitches with only a 1.96 BB/9, we should like him to get more than 18 outs with the DEMON boost. He’s only gone over 6 innings in 2 of 7 starts this season, but his pitch count has been over 100 in 5 consecutive starts. We have Wheeler projected for 18.4 outs. The juice matters a lot here. San Francisco isn’t a great matchup, but Wheeler’s K rate is over 30% to start the season, while the Giants projected lineup has a 23.1% K rate against RHP since the start of the 2023 season. When the projections are about even on a DEMON booster, we don’t need to get the play right over half the time. Don’t overthink this.
Mitch Keller MORE Than 6.5 Strikeouts (DEMON)
We can overthink this. Keller has seen his Ks go way down, from 25.5% in 2023 to just 21.8% to start 2024, but he gets to face the Angels and their projected lineup’s 25.1% K rate against RHP. There are rumblings that Keller is pitching hurt, but I don’t buy it, as he’s thrown over 95 pitches in 4 of his last 5 starts, going 7, 6, 5, and 5 innings. We don’t need 7 innings to get 7 Ks against the Angels. We just need 6. And we have Keller projected for exactly 6 strikeouts. The juice is just good enough with the DEMON boost to take on this play. If 6.5 with the DEMON boost is too scary, his standard PrizePicks projection is at 5.5, so we can play that with a solid edge instead.
Jack Flaherty LESS Than 5.5 Strikeouts
Flaherty has struck out 34% of hitters this season, but the Guardians are among the stingiest teams to punch out. They only carry a 19.6% K rate against RHP in their projected lineup. To get to 6 strikeouts, Flaherty would probably have to complete 7 innings, which is something he hasn’t done since May 27, 2023. His BB rate is way down to 3.4%, so there could be a long leash for Flaherty, who’s thrown 93, 97, 97, 100, and 94 pitches over his last 5 starts. But, again, the Guardians control contact rates pretty consistently. We have Flaherty projected for just 4.5 Ks, which is 18.2% below the PrizePicks projection, making this a top play on the board.
Fernando Tatis MORE Than 1.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
DEMON boosts are pretty bloated against us today on hitters, but Tatis carries a PrizePicks projection under 2.0 against a lefty. A good lefty in Justin Steele, but a lefty, nonetheless, who is only projected for just 78 pitches in his first start since March 28th. The wind is forecasted to blow in hard at Wrigley, so this isn’t the greatest play in a vacuum, but we have Tatis projected for 2.4 total bases — 60% above his PrizePicks projection — so the play bears noting. He’s actually a sneaky-low strikeout player with a 61% hard-hit rate against LHP.
All projections referenced are accurate at the time of writing but subject to change.
I’m playing a low volume with a heavy distribution toward pitcher DEMON boosts. The hitting projections are just a bit too sharp for me on PrizePicks.
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