MLB PrizePicks Predictions Today: Top Plays for Thursday, June 13th
Traditional MLB DFS formats aren’t the only way to profit from daily fantasy baseball. MLB PrizePicks is a great fantasy pick’em site where we can take today’s projections versus theirs and combine two or more baseball predictions for sizeable payouts.
In this space, we’ll explore a few PrizePicks plays for the upcoming MLB slate. This article isn’t the be-all, end-all of great plays or a recommendation for a full ticket; it’s simply a starting place for you to explore thinking about the game within the game. Maybe you want to scatter these plays across entries. Maybe there are only two or three you think are worth playing. Daily fantasy pick’em gives us the flexibility to make only the plays in which we think there is value rather than being forced to create a full lineup while competing against the best DFS players in the industry.
PrizePicks is daily fantasy baseball made simple, and our MLB PrizePicks picks tool makes the process even simpler.
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MLB PrizePicks Predictions for Thursday, June 13th
- Joe Ryan MORE Than 18.5 Outs (DEMON)
- Luis Castillo MORE Than 18.5 Outs (DEMON)
- Luis Severino MORE Than 18.5 Outs (DEMON)
- Mookie Betts MORE Than 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (DEMON)
- Adolis Garcia MORE Than 1.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
Joe Ryan MORE Than 18.5 Outs (DEMON)
Joe Ryan has gone 7 IP in 3 of his last 4 starts and 4 of his last 6 — at least 6 IP in 7 of his last 9. Routinely going well over 90 pitches and drawing an A’s lineup with a .300 wOBA, .150 ISO, and 25.6% K rate against righties this season, our 18-out projection feels a bit conservative. But even if we just go with that and figure Ryan’s floor is about 16 outs, this is a ceiling situation where he could rack up well over 21 outs. He’s a great pitcher with a great matchup and a long leash.
Luis Castillo MORE Than 18.5 Outs (DEMON)
Luis Castillo doesn’t have the elite volume of Ryan, but his matchup is probably even better against the White Sox. The Sox have a .285 wOBA and .151 ISO against righties with a 25.5% K rate this season. Castillo has only surpassed 18 outs in 4 of his 14 starts, but he’s gone 6+ IP in 9 of his last 11. This being a ceiling spot for him, projected by us for 18 outs, we’ve gotta take the DEMON juice. I wanna be more exposed to Ryan than Castillo but exposed to this play.
Luis Severino MORE Than 18.5 Outs (DEMON)
Luis Severino isn’t the best play on the board because he’s more dependent on BABIP tonight than Ryan and Castillo. Severino’s K rate is just under 20% this season and the Marlins’ projected lineup is just 22.2% over the same time frame, but — damn — the Marlins are an extreme ground-ball hitting team (50.4%) to Severino’s massive ground-ball rate allowed (51.9%). Severino should be economical enough with his pitches to get some distance, so we have him projected for 18 outs, too. He has a slightly lower ceiling than Ryan and Castillo but probably a similarly high floor.
Mookie Betts MORE Than 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (DEMON)
We always love Mookie Betts against weak pitching. Michael Lorenzen isn’t a gas can, but he’s allowed so much contact this year (79.3%). Betts comes in with a .407 wOBA and .227 ISO with a near 50% hard-hit rate against righties since the start of the 2023 season. We have him projected for 2.5 hits+runs+RBI, leading off for a Dodgers lineup with a 4.92 implied total.
Adolis Garcia MORE Than 1.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
My favorite total bases play on the board is Adolis Garcia against the Dodgers’ bullpen, with Ryan Yarbrough projected for long relief. Yarbrough is a shell of himself right now, just racking up 3.95 K/9 for an 83.4% contact rate across 43.1 IP this season. With Yarbrough’s high contact and average power prevention, Adolis Garcia and his 16.1% barrel rate against righties this season have a strong chance to thrive in Dodger Stadium. We have Garcia projected for 1.9 total bases — well over his PrizePicks projection.
All projections referenced are accurate at the time of writing but subject to change.
For a small slate, there’s a lot of potential. The strikeout projections are right, but there’s a lot of value in attack the outs DEMON projections with the standard hits allowed, along with some total bases. I’m probably playing half of my volume tonight, maxing out the plays in my contests to about 3-4. There are a lot of great DEMON projections to sprinkle around.
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