MLB PrizePicks Predictions Today: Top Plays for Thursday, June 6th
Traditional MLB DFS formats aren’t the only way to profit from daily fantasy baseball. MLB PrizePicks is a great fantasy pick’em site where we can take today’s projections versus theirs and combine two or more baseball predictions for sizeable payouts.
In this space, we’ll explore a few PrizePicks plays for the upcoming MLB slate. This article isn’t the be-all, end-all of great plays or a recommendation for a full ticket; it’s simply a starting place for you to explore thinking about the game within the game. Maybe you want to scatter these plays across entries. Maybe there are only two or three you think are worth playing. Daily fantasy pick’em gives us the flexibility to make only the plays in which we think there is value rather than being forced to create a full lineup while competing against the best DFS players in the industry.
PrizePicks is daily fantasy baseball made simple, and our MLB PrizePicks tool makes the process even simpler.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
If you haven’t signed up for a PrizePicks account, make sure to use the PrizePicks promo code ROTOBONUS and get a $100 deposit match.
MLB PrizePicks Predictions for Thursday, June 6th
- Tanner Houck MORE Than 37.5 Fantasy Points and 18.5 Outs (DEMON)
- Hunter Greene LESS Than 36.5 Fantasy Points
- Yusei Kikuchi LESS Than 34.0 Fantasy Points
- Randy Vasquez LESS Than 15.5 Outs
- Walker Buehler MORE Than 16.5 Outs and 29.0 Fantasy Points
Tanner Houck MORE Than 37.5 Fantasy Points
Through June 5, Tanner Houck is leading MLB in fWAR (2.7). We normally don’t look at real-life value in fantasy analysis, but it’s important to display exactly how great he’s been this season. There’s room for his 1.85 ERA to regress some, given his 2.15 FIP, 3.03 SIERA, and 3.37 xERA to start the season, but the White Sox are the least likely matchup to start the process. The White Sox’s projected lineup has just a .287 wOBA and .145 ISO to go with a 24.1% K rate against righties. Houck has gone 6+ IP in 10 of 12 starts this season, so he’s a great bet for the quality start, as the Red Sox are -230 favorites, giving Houck a great shot at the W. Add that Houck’s K rate is up to 24.2% this season, and this is one of the best plays on the board, according to our pick’em tool, as we have Houck conservatively projected for 38.3 fantasy points.
Hunter Greene LESS Than 36.5 Fantasy Points
Hunter Greene is a really good pitcher, but he’s a pretty extreme fly-baller pitching against a power-packed Cubs lineup in The Great American Ball Park tonight. Greene’s 35.5% fly-ball rate with the Cubs’ projected lineup carrying 5 double-digit barrel rates this season against righties for a collective 9.2% is a recipe for disaster for Greene. Our pick’em tool has his LESS than 36.5 fantasy points as a top-3 play on the board, projected by us for just 32.8 fantasy points on the night. This is a huge 10.1% disparity to which we should have a lot of exposure.
Yusei Kikuchi LESS Than 34.0 Fantasy Points
But the best play on the board, according to our pick ‘em tool, is Yusei Kikuchi to score LESS than 34.0 fantasy points against the dangerous Orioles. Kikuchi’s power prevention to lefties has been great this season, but he’s still surrendering a 9.5% barrel rate to righties on a 52.1% hard-hit rate. This is enough for me to wanna pound him with Baltimore’s projected lineup carrying a collective 10.8% barrel rate against southpaws into tonight. The Orioles are one of the best teams in baseball against lefties, and Kikuchi isn’t elite. We have Kikuchi projected for 28.9 fantasy points on this night — a 15% disparity between our projection and PrizePicks — making his LESS than 34.0 fantasy points the best play on the board, according to our pick’em tool.
We also have Kikuchi projected for 5.9 strikeouts on the day, which I think is pretty crazy. I don’t hate getting exposure to Kikuchi for LESS than 6.0 strikeouts, as we only have him projected for 15.5 outs.
NOTE — Kikuchi pitches at 1:07 p.m. EST, so get this play in early!
Randy Vasquez LESS Than 15.5 Outs
The Diamondbacks are a weird matchup. They haven’t been electric to start the season, but there’s a lot of talent in this lineup, and Randy Vasquez isn’t very good. He’s also only surpassed 15 outs once in 6 starts this season, so 15.5 outs is an even weirder projection from PrizePicks. We have Vasquez projected for 14.4 outs, and I’m guessing he has a very low ceiling for volume, making him a top-3 play on the board, according to our pick ‘em tool.
Walker Buehler MORE Than 16.5 Outs and 29.0 Fantasy Points
We only have Walker Buehler projected for 30.4 fantasy points through 16.7 outs, so the edge is thin here, but the Pirates are kinda meh. They have an implied total of just 3.7 despite packing a decent amount of power in their projected lineup. That lineup has a collective 10.1% barrel rate against righties with a 9.4% BB rate, but they also bring a 25.2% K rate to the table. Buehler might not be in a ceiling spot for run prevention, but it’s a ceiling spot for strikeouts, and he’s thrown 92 and 91 pitches over his last 2 starts — going 6 and 5.2 IP in those outings. It’s a great spot for the quality start and the win, a great spot for strikeouts, and the ballpark is great for pitching. I want some exposure here.
All projections referenced are accurate at the time of writing but subject to change.
Normally, we discuss how to attack DEMON boosters in this space aggressively, but some of these standard projections are just too soft not to stack up. I like maxing out our contests six ways tonight and playing a high volume of them. For hitting, we wanna target Red Sox against Jake Woodford and the nauseating White Sox bullpen, Dodgers against Bailey Falter, and maybe Padres and D-Backs bats against Vasquez and Slade Cecconi. As for pitching DEMON boosts, we should feel great about Sonny Gray for MORE than 7.5 strikeouts against the Rockies in St. Louis, as we have him projected for 7.3 Ks.
Image Credit: Getty Images