MLB PrizePicks Predictions Today: Top Plays for Tuesday, July 23rd
Traditional MLB DFS formats aren’t the only way to profit from daily fantasy baseball. MLB PrizePicks is a great fantasy pick’em site where we can take today’s projections versus theirs and combine two or more baseball predictions for sizeable payouts.
In this space, we’ll explore a few PrizePicks plays for the upcoming MLB slate. This article isn’t the be-all, end-all of great plays or a recommendation for a full ticket; it’s simply a starting place for you to explore thinking about the game within the game. Maybe you want to scatter these plays across entries. Maybe there are only two or three you think are worth playing. Daily fantasy pick’em gives us the flexibility to make only the plays in which we think there is value rather than being forced to create a full lineup while competing against the best DFS players in the industry.
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All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB PrizePicks Predictions for Tuesday, July 23rd
- Chris Sale MORE Than 8.5 Strikeouts (DEMON) and MORE Than 4.5 Hits Allowed (DEMON)
- Garrett Crochet MORE Than 15.5 Outs (DEMON)
- Lance Lynn MORE Than 15.5 Outs (DEMON)
- Christian Yelich MORE Than 1.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
Chris Sale MORE Than 8.5 Strikeouts (DEMON) and MORE Than 4.5 Hits Allowed (DEMON)
The Reds play in the most homer-friendly ballpark in baseball, so the Statcast data matters more to us when they’re on the road than their results-based data, but their projected lineup’s 25.1% K rate against lefties since the start of the 2023 season should travel well to boost the already elite 32.3% rate of Chris Sale. Sale’s high pitch count hasn’t driven him deep into games recently, but he still has 9+ Ks in 3 of his last 4 starts. This is a spot where the volume should come in because the Reds are pretty bad without their ballpark bump. For that 100+ pitch count, we should also like him allowing MORE than 4.5 hits in this legit CGSO-ceiling spot. We have Sale projected for 8.1 Ks and 5.6 hits allowed.
Garrett Crochet MORE Than 15.5 Outs (DEMON)
Garrett Crochet isn’t going deep into games recently, but 15.5 is too low of a projection, considering the DEMON juice. We just need one singular out in the 6th inning to win this play. Crochet has logged 16+ outs in 8 of his last 10 starts — 10 of his last 13. The flip side to this is that he’s a converted reliever on the trade block, so he could be on an innings cap, and the Rangers are no slouch. But his stuff is some of the best in the league, and he has the receipts to prove it. We have him projected for exactly 16.0 outs.
Lance Lynn MORE Than 15.5 Outs (DEMON)
Good or bad, Lance Lynn has a longer leash than he deserves, and that’s all we need to know against a Pirates team with an implied total under 4.5. Lynn can give up a ton of power, and the Pirates have a lot of low-key power, but Lynn has logged 16+ outs in 3 of his last 4 starts. I don’t love this play — and I wouldn’t touch it as a standard play because it’s very high variance — but our projections have him at 16.2 outs, so I will have a sprinkle of exposure with the DEMON juice.
Christian Yelich MORE Than 1.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
It’s forecasted to be 80 degrees with 8-mph winds blowing out at Wrigley for first pitch, which doesn’t jump off of the page, but the 65-degree dew point seems to be supplying huge environmental bumps to power, according to WeatherEdge (174-game sample). PrizePicks is trying to limit our exposure to this game, but Christian Yelich has a 1.5 total base DEMON projection that we wouldn’t hate against Jameson Taillon in neutral weather. Taillon has allowed a 9.4% barrel rate to lefties, while Yelich has an 8.5% rate against righties but on a 54.6% hard-hit and 26.2% line-drive rate for a .194 ISO. We have Yelich projected for 2 total bases in these high-scoring conditions.
All projections referenced are accurate at the time of writing but subject to change.
This isn’t a great day for DEMONs. We can feel good about Sale, but we should be wary of the other plays. I suggest a low-volume day where we sprinkle these DEMONs in to boost our plays against the standard projections that our pick ‘em tool says have the highest edge.
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