MLB PrizePicks Predictions Today: Top Plays for Wednesday, April 10
Traditional MLB DFS formats aren’t the only way to profit from daily fantasy baseball. MLB PrizePicks is a great fantasy pick’em site where we can take today’s projections versus theirs and combine two or more baseball predictions for sizeable payouts.
In this space, we’ll explore a few PrizePicks plays for the upcoming MLB slate. This article isn’t the be-all, end-all of great plays or a recommendation for a full ticket; it’s simply a starting place for you to explore thinking about the game within the game. Maybe you want to scatter these plays across entries. Maybe there are only two or three you think are worth playing. Daily fantasy pick’em gives us the flexibility to make only the plays in which we think there is value rather than being forced to create a full lineup while competing against the best DFS players in the industry.
PrizePicks is daily fantasy baseball made simple.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB PrizePicks Predictions for Wednesday, April 10
- Aaron Judge MORE Than 0.5 Home Runs (DEMON)
- Marcus Stroman MORE Than 17.5 Outs
- Corey Seager MORE Than 8.5 Fantasy Points
- Cole Irvin MORE Than 5.5 Strikeouts (DEMON)
- Cody Bradford MORE Than 6.0 Strikeouts
Aaron Judge MORE Than 0.5 Home Runs (DEMON)
We’re gonna have some devilish fun on this slate. It’s Aaron Judge and his 31.2% barrel rate against LHP against a bad LHP in Yankee Stadium. Don’t overthink this with the DEMON boost. Ryan Weathers doesn’t give up much power to righties, but his K rate has only been 15.2% against them with a 27.6% fly-ball rate, allowing a .407 wOBA and .227 ISO. This could be a ceiling game for Judge, considering that the Marlins bullpen isn’t very good and takes a ballpark hit, coming from loanDepot to Yankee Stadium.
Judge’s 3.5 PrizePicks total bases DEMON projection is juicier. Giancarlo Stanton brings his 19.7% barrel rate against LHP to his 1.5 total bases DEMON projection as well. Let’s have a party.
Marcus Stroman MORE Than 17.5 Outs
The Yankees’ 5.08 implied run total is 2nd highest to the Rangers’ 5.19, but the Marlins’ 3.42 total is the lowest on the slate. There are times when great offense can correlate with a pitcher’s performance because he can get a longer leash. That is the case for Marcus Stroman today. We can take a massive ground-ball pitcher with greater control and a .103 ISO allowed against a team that has a high swing rate and is dependent on the long ball — even in Yankee Stadium — to get 6 innings or more. PrizePicks has his strikeout and fantasy points projections a bit too high for us, so outs are the way we should want to attack this situation.
Corey Seager More Than 8.5 Fantasy Points
Ross Stripling gives up a lot of home runs. His 1.87 HR/9 allowed is even ahead of Weathers’ 1.75. His K/9 is down to 7.04 and his control is fantastic, but his 79.4% contact rate plays directly into the bat of Corey Seager, who has a 14.2% barrel rate on a 29.8% fly-ball and 27.2% line-drive rate. Seager hits the ball hard and often, to the tune of a 60.3% hard-hit rate with only a 14.3% K rate. Seager in a high-contact spot against an entire pitching staff that struggles with power prevention is the nuts.
If you wanna get frisky, Stripling’s DEMON projection to beat for earned runs allowed is 3.5, and Seager’s total bases DEMON is still just 2.5. I’ll have exposure to those for sure.
Cole Irvin MORE Than 5.5 Strikeouts (DEMON)
We haven’t seen Cole Irvin use his velocity bump much this season through the fastball, but his cutter is up 2.2 MPH, after reports out of Spring Training that his ~92-MPH fastball was flirting with 96. LHP against the Red Sox are gonna be a thing this season, especially with the tragic loss of Trevor Story for the season. Boston is a hard place to pitch, but the Red Sox projected lineup has a 26.8% K rate against LHP. Irvin is like a coiling stock waiting to explode. What better time to do so than against a high-strikeout team?
Our projections are low on Irvin, so the prudent path to taking a shot on what might have been an offseason improvement could be to attack the standard 4.5 PrizePicks projection, which is only an 8.9% hit on our 4.1 projection. But we should want the juice because if Irvin’s new stuff comes out, it’s gonna be with a bang. This is definitely a low-exposure play, but a play, nonetheless.
Cody Bradford MORE Than 6.0 Strikeouts
This is similar to the Irvin projection that we’re attacking in that Cody Bradford hasn’t shown consistent strikeout stuff, but the A’s projected lineup has a 23.8% K rate against LHP, featuring the 36% rate of Zack Gelof, the 25.6% rate of J.D. Davis, and the 29.8% rate of Shea Langeliers in the top 4 of the order. Oakland’s 3.9 implied run total suggests that Bradford could roll and face at least two of those three guys three times. If he’s really rollin’, Bradford could get to face JJ Bleday and his 28.8% K rate a third time in the 6-hole.
Like Irvin, we’re taking a hit on our 5.5 projection, but a lot of things can swing his results. Again, a low-exposure play because PrizePicks has the projection edge, but it’s a spot where we can profit enough to play. If his DEMON projection were 6.5 instead of 7.5, we would attack that. But it isn’t, so we won’t.
All projections referenced are accurate at the time of writing but subject to change.
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