Monday Night Football Betting Picks: Dolphins at Steelers
NFL Week 8 concludes with a rather boring Monday Night Football matchup featuring the Miami Dolphins (0-6) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4). I suppose one way to make it interesting is to bet on it. The Steelers might just be 2-4 but they’re still two-touchdown favorites at online sports betting sites.
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Monday Night Football Betting Picks — Dolphins at Steelers
Spread: Pittsburgh Steelers -14 (use our promo code for William Hill to get these odds)
75% of bets are on Miami, per VegasInsider.com.
Over/Under: 44
60% of bets on the Over
It’s pretty astonishing a team led by Mason Rudolph is laying 14 points, but that’s how bad the Miami Dolphins have been this season. After their 59-10 loss in Week 1 to the Baltimore Ravens, the Dolphins have been underdogs of at least 14.5 points in each game other than their Week 6 matchup with the Redskins. The Dolphins are 1-4 ATS as double-digit underdogs this season and 2-4 ATS overall.
Not surprising, it has been quite profitable to bet the Under in Dolphins games. The Under is 4-2 this season, as Miami has only scored more than 10 points twice this season.
As for the Steelers, Mason Rudolph returns after being sidelined with a concussion against the Baltimore Ravens. Without Rudolph, Pittsburgh was able to score 24 points on the Chargers last week to win their second game of the year. Though their record is bad, the Steelers have managed to go 3-2-1 ATS thus far.
Rudolph, James Conner, and JuJu Smith-Schuster should have a fun time against the worst defense in the league Monday Night. According to RotoGrinders new GridironIQ tool, the Dolphins are giving up a league-high 53.85% pass success rate to their opponents. Additionally, Miami’s defense is allowing the second-most EPA (expected points added) via pass plays.
It’s not just the secondary the Steelers will take advantage of. Miami is in the bottom five teams when it comes to rush defense.
The Monday Night Football Pick
I struggle laying two touchdowns but, whatever the point spread might be, I also have a tough time putting my money on the Dolphins. Instead of picking ATS, I’ll be betting the Under. Heinz Field will be loud for Monday Night Football despite the lackluster matchup. The Steelers defense is in the middle of the pack and their pass defense, more specifically, is above average. I think the Under trend continues for games that the Miami Dolphins are in.
My Pick: Under 43.5
Monday Night Football Betting Picks — Player Props
Along with tools for DFS, GridironIQ is also useful for betting on NFL player props. It currently projects Rudolph to throw for 264 yards. As for Rudolph’s receivers, Smith-Schuster is projected for 5-66, and Diontae Johnson is projected for 55 receiving yards. We also project Conner for 83 rushing yards.
Mason Rudolph Over 230.5 Passing Yards – Use our promo code for FanDuel Sportsbook to get these odds.
JuJu Smith-Schuster Over 60.5 Yards (+105) – Use our promo code for PointsBet to get these odds.
James Conner Over 70.5 Rushing Yards – Use our promo code for DraftKings Sportsbook to get these odds.
Monkey Knife Fight Player Props
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Here are my favorite Monkey Knife Fight picks for Monday Night Football:
Mason Rudolph Over 240.5 Passing Yards
Ryan Fitzpatrick Over 225.5 Passing Yards
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images