Monday Night Football Betting Picks: Lions at Packers

NFL Week 6 concludes with a Monday Night Football matchup between two NFC North rivals. Both the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions have started the NFL season strong and now battle to see who sits atop the crowded division. Online sports betting sites opened Green Bay as 6-point favorites but the line quickly fell to 4.5, and now down to 3.5 around the around the industry. Let’s look at Monday Night Football betting picks for the Lions at Packers.

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Monday Night Football Betting Picks — Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers

Spread: Packers -3.5 (use our FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to get these odds)

53% of bets backing Green Bay, per VegasInsider.com.

Over/Under: 45.5

80% of bets on the Over

In a rivalry that dates back to the 1930s, the Lions haven’t had a lot of hope at winning in Green Bay but that has changed the last two seasons. The Lions enter Monday night on a four-game winning streak against the Packers, comfortably covering the spread in each game. Though the Lions have had recent success against the Packers, they haven’t seen that translate elsewhere until now. With a 2-1-1 start, the Lions alongside second-year head Matt Patricia look to make the playoffs for the first time since 2016. Winning in Green Bay would be a huge step towards that goal.

‘The game is won in the trenches’

It won’t come easy against a new-look Packers defense that features a deadly pass rush thanks to offseason acquisitions of Preston and Za’ Darius Smith (not related). The duo has combined for 10.5 sacks through the first five weeks of the season, making the defensive line the most impressive Packers unit thus far.

The Packers pass rush is sixth in Pressure% while the Lions offensive line is only keeping quarterback Matt Stafford clean 62% of the time, according to RotoGrinders NFL GridironIQ tool.

The Lions will try to avoid sacks by establishing the run. Only four teams have called a higher percentage of rush plays than Detroit this season. The Packers are excellent at attacking opposing quarterbacks, but teams have had their way with Green Bay’s defense on the ground. In fact, 61% of run plays against the Packers defense have been classified as successful according to Sports Info Solutions, making the Packers a league-worst in that metric. Expect the Lions to lean heavily on running back Kerryon Johnson Monday night.

Sign up for RotoGrinders premium tools featuring GridironIQ for more data powered by Sports Info Solutions and Football Outsiders.

Adams still out

Several key injuries to the Packers aid a relatively healthy Lions team. Most notably is Davante Adams who continues to sit out with turf toe. Green Bay was able to go on the road and beat the Dallas Cowboys without Rodgers’ no. 1 target in Week 5. Now, Rodgers’ receivers include Marquez Valdez-Scantling, Geronimo Allison, Jake Kumerow, and TE Jimmy Graham. Unsurprisingly, most of the Packers’ offensive success at Jerry World was found on the ground through Aaron Jones. Like the Packers, the Lions have struggled to stop the run, with over 55% of opposing teams’ touchdowns coming on the ground.

Other injuries for the Packers include impressive rookie safety, Darnell Savage. A pivotal piece to the Packers pass defense, Savage has consistently smothered slot receivers while on the field. The Lions hope to take advantage of Savage’s absence with rookie TE T.J. Hockenson who cleared concussion protocol Monday morning.

The Monday Night Football Betting Pick

It’s tough to bet against Rodgers at Lambeau. The Packers have one of the bigger home field advantages in the NFL and there does appear to be value with the betting line down from -6 to -3.5. With that said, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Lions keep this within a field goal or pull off the upset. I’m still taking the Packers if it falls to -3, but *my favorite bet is on Under 45.5.

Bettors have hammered the Over yet the total has fallen to 45.5 which is a signal that sharp money on the Under. Moreover, these teams don’t play at a fast pace and, as discussed above, both teams are likely to lean on the run.

My Pick: Under 45.5 (use our William Hill promo code to get these odds)

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Monday Night Football Betting Picks — Player and Game Props

No Defensive Touchdown 417 (use our PointsBet promo code to get these odds)

1st TD Scorer – Jamaal Williams +2200 (use our DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to get these odds

1st TD Scorer – TJ Hockenson +1500 (DK)

Marquez Valdez-Scantling Over 3.5 Receptions; Over 53.5 Yards (use our FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to get these odds)

Monkey Knife Fight Player Props

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My favorite Monkey Knife Fight Plays: Aaron Rodgers Under 265.5 Passing Yards; Stafford Under 259.5 Passing Yards

Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images

About the Author

  • Matt Schmitto (schmitto)

  • Matt Schmitto is the Editor of Sports Betting Content for RotoGrinders. He grew up in Texas, graduating from Texas Tech University. He has played high stakes DFS since 2013, and enjoys betting on golf, basketball, football and whatever else is put in front of him. Schmitto is an advocate of The Bettor’s Oath.

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