NBA Daily Punts: February 28, 2014
I’m going to stick with the recent format instead of listing a bevy of picks from each site; I’ll list my favorite value play at each position on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and will include a few DraftStreet plays as well. It seems like listing 15 FanDuel value plays is a little unnecessary if only 3 or 4 of them will be in the majority of my lineups, so I’ll try to stick to the most viable options on a seven game night.
In order to be considered a “punt,” a player must meet Bargain Bin Baller status on either FanDuel ($5500), DraftStreet ($9500) or DraftKings ($4500).
FanDuel
Point Guard – Trey Burke – I’ll preface this pick by saying Burke will be in a fair amount of my GPP lineups, but if I’m going cheap in a cash game, Ish Smith will be the guy I’m targeting as long as Dragic is out. If Dragic plays and I’m forced to ignore Ish, I’ll also probably have some exposure to Jarrett Jack at $4,400 in cash games alongside IT2. Back to Burke; he’s played better at home this year which doesn’t bode well for him tonight, but he does have the pleasure of taking on Kyrie Irving and the Cavs. Cleveland is 28th against the PG position this year and hasn’t been much better recently. Again, I probably won’t have him in cash game lineups since I like a few of the expensive options alongside Ish Smith, but he’s a nice against the grain play in a tournament.
Shooting Guard – Kent Bazemore – Bazemore will be among the most popular value plays of the night, and for good reason. He’s still priced under 4K and has been playing huge minutes for D’Antoni lately, and now steps into a match-up with the up-tempo Kings. Based on volume alone, Bazemore should have no trouble paying off this price. I’d be fairly surprised if he wasn’t one of the two most popular plays at SG tonight. On the other sideline, Ben McLemore is in play since he’s back to playing big minutes and DMC’s injury should send a few shots his way, but I wouldn’t want him on any of my cash game lineups.
Small Forward – Wesley Johnson – This spot is also pretty weak tonight, and I’m not sure I’ll have anyone under $5500 in any of my cash lineups. Al-Farouq Aminu would be an intriguing GPP option if The Brow can’t go, but Johnson is really the only other play I could consider (mayyyybe P.J. Tucker) below the BBB cutoff. His minutes have been inconsistent lately, but he did play 38 minutes on Wednesday and posted 34 FP’s. This game will be played at a fast pace and Sacramento is rolling out a small starting five without DMC, so I’m expecting Johnson to see big minutes again tonight.
Power Forward – Derrick Williams – He’s going to start at PF tonight with Jason Thompson shifting over to center, and I’m willing to take the plunge on him even with a bevy of other front-court options available to Mark Malone. This type of match-up/style of play suits Williams better then guys like Reggie Evans and Carl Landry, so he’s my top option in terms of the Sacramento front-court. It’s certainly a situation that a lot of people will have exposure to, so picking the right player here could go a long way.
Center – Alexis Ajinca – Even with Davis in the lineup, Ajinca has been playing a nice chunk of minutes off the bench, but he’ll get an extra boost if The Brow can’t suit up. At $4,200, he doesn’t need to produce a whole lot to hit value and he’s a guy with 35-40 FP upside if he’s given the start for Davis. Stay tuned on the injury news, which unfortunately may not come until after 7:30 EST roster lock (this is the 2nd ESPN game, so it tips at 10:30).
DraftKings
Point Guard – Ish Smith – There really isn’t any other appealing options below $4,500, so I’m not even going to mess around with anyone besides Smith. It seems more likely that Dragic sits tonight, but nothing official has broken yet and late-swap on DK will give you some flexibility here. You can plug in Ish Smith for now, and if Dragic does end up playing, you can pivot right to the PG on the other sideline (Brian Roberts). Roberts is a serviceable cash game play for $4,300, and if you’re going to roll with that plan, make sure you save yourself $100 of cap space (since Smith is priced at $4,200).
Shooting Guard – Kent Bazemore – I’ll pay the $200 more for Bazemore if I’m choosing between he and McLemore, and basically everything I said about him in the FanDuel analysis holds true here. Brian Roberts is also SG eligible, so he’s in play here for cash games.
Small Forward – Derrick Williams – There’s usually some variance between FanDuel and DraftKings’ value plays, but it’s lining up tonight with a relatively short Friday schedule. Williams will get the nod at the 4 with Cousins suspended for tonight, and the match-up with the Lakers puts quite a few of the Kings in play tonight. I’ll have a heavy dose of Thomas, Gay and Williams in my lineups tonight, as will most of the industry.
Power Forward – Jason Thompson – Along with Williams, Thompson will be a pretty popular play without DMC in the lineup. He played just five minutes on Tuesday against the Rockets, but that trend won’t continue and he should be back somewhere around 25-30 minutes against the Lakers. The Kings will probably play smaller at times which could lead to him seeing more of the bench, so I’m having a hard time pulling the trigger on him in cash lineups, but the upside is there in this match-up if he gets the run.
Center – Alexis Ajinca – At least on DK, you’ll be able to wait for the Davis news if it comes after 7:30 EST. I’d be really surprised if Ajinca didn’t hit value without Brow in the lineup, and I don’t think I’m alone there so he’ll probably be a guy that people have on the late-swap radar. He has legitimate 40 FP upside if he gets extended run, and he’s actually posted at least 30 FP’s in his last two with Davis on the court.
DraftStreet
Derrick Williams – $5,179 – At this price, I’d expect to see Williams among the highest owned players of the night. He’s not the only SAC front-court option in this price range (Carl Landry and Jason Thompson are both priced similarly), but he’s the one I trust the most heading into tonight’s game with the Lakers.
Kent Bazemore – $8,166 – Bazemore is D’Antoni’s new favorite toy, it seems like he’s getting tired of the Ryan Kelly and Jordan Hill combo. His price has come up from where it was the last few nights, but I’m still okay with paying this price for him in a great match-up with the Kings. He’s hit value if he cracks 20 FP’s, and he’s certainly capable of that as long as his minutes stay where they’ve been.
Brow Injury Replacements – Who knows if we’ll have word on Davis by the time rosters lock, but if he is ruled out with some time to tinker, getting either Ajinca ($8,402) or Aminu ($8,249) into your lineup could prove beneficial. I’d play Ajinca before Aminu in both cash games and tournaments, since he’s actually been producing off the bench as of late.