NBA Daily Punts: February 3, 2014
When I start building my lineups, I like to look for a few low salary options that should safely reach value. On most days, there will be a few injuries that open up opportunities for players who don’t typically see big minutes. A change in a teams rotation or a particular match-up can also be the cause of a value play emerging. As we all know, NBA injury news continues to pour in as the day moves along and is not usually made official until close to tip-off, so be sure to sign up for our NBA alerts and check out the RotoGrinders Twitter Feed leading up to roster lock.
I’m going to stick with the new format, separating the three major sites (FD, DS, DK) into their own sections, instead of listing players by position. While the analysis for each player won’t be as heavy, I’ll get into some site-specific plays that I may not have listed in the prior format. I’ve also added a section at the end of each site breakdown called “If/Then” to include players whose value hinges on injury news that has yet to break as of this writing. If you’d like to see me include a site other then FD, DS and DK, post in the comments and I’ll try to include some plays for that site going forward.
In order to be considered a “punt,” a player must meet Bargain Bin Baller status on either FanDuel ($5500), DraftStreet ($9500) or DraftKings ($4500).
FanDuel
Jose Calderon – Calderon gets to take on Kyrie Irving and the Cavaliers tonight, who are ranked second to last at defending the PG position on the season. While he’s not emulating his assist numbers from Toronto, Calderon is still a safe cash game play for $5,200 tonight. Expect him to fall somewhere in the 25-30 fantasy point range.
Nick Calathes – I don’t think Calathes will match his output from Saturday night, but he should still have no trouble paying off his minimum salary. He’s playing big minutes with Mike Conley sidelined, and faces a Thunder team that has struggled with the point guard spot this season. He won’t shoot 8-12 from the field again and I’d expect him to have fewer open looks on the perimeter, but he doesn’t need to do much to pay off the price tag.
Courtney Lee – It’s been tough for me to create a lineup on FD without both of the Memphis guards in it. Calathes and Lee will surely be popular plays this evening, and rostering them both gives you some nice financial flexibility elsewhere in your lineup. Lee will see upwards of 35 minutes if this one stays close, and should contribute a decent number of points, assists and boards.
J.R. Smith – Smith has worked his way out of Mike Woodson’s doghouse and has been playing well of late with Iman Shumpert banged up. Shumpert is “optimistic” that he will return for tonight’s game, but Smith is still in play for $5,500 against a poor Milwaukee defense. He’s been consistently hovering around the 30 FP mark lately, and I expect him to fall somewhere near that number again tonight.
Jae Crowder – With Shawn Marion ruled out, Crowder will draw another start tonight against the Cavs. For minimum price, it’s hard to argue with rostering a guy that should play 30+ minutes in an up-tempo game, but Crowder is such a small part of the offense that he can leave you with close to nothing if he’s not racking up hustle stats. With that said, he’s still a nice option if you want to punt the SF spot.
Ersan Ilyasova – Can’t believe I’m saying this, but Ersan has actually been producing at a consistent level over his past five games. He’s received steady shot attempts over that time, and he can be really valuable on a site like FD when he’s putting up a healthy number of shots. Ersan has been hitting the glass at a nice clip too, so I’ll have exposure to him against the Knicks for just $5,200.
Kenneth Faried – The Clippers front-court is one to target from a fantasy standpoint, and you can make a case for a few of the Nuggets bigs tonight. For $5,500, Faried has plenty of upside as long as he can avoid foul trouble and not get eaten alive inside by Blake Griffin. Defense can sometimes land him on Brian Shaw’s bench, so he’s probably better suited for GPP’s tonight, but the upside is definitely there.
Tyson Chandler – Chandler takes on the Milwaukee front-court this evening, which has been a fun unit to pick on so far this year. He’s probably my favorite center option for cash games on FD, since he’s been consistent and should be able to control the glass against Larry Sanders tonight. While I might lean towards a guy like Jonas Valanciunas for the same price in GPP’s, Chandler has the higher floor and will be in a good deal of my cash game LU’s.
Enes Kanter – Derrick Favors and Jeremy Evans are doubtful for tonight, which leaves the front-court duties to Enes Kanter and Marvin Williams. Kanter sits at just $4,800 on FD, and will match-up with Jonas Valanciunas early on, who isn’t exactly known for his defense. He has 40 FP upside as the starter, so I have absolutely no issue with rostering him tonight and I’d be surprised if he didn’t pay off this price.
Larry Sanders – While Chandler is historically tough on the defensive end, he hasn’t looked as dominant lately and I could see Sanders having a nice night even in a tough match-up. He’s still priced at just $5,100, which makes him an appealing GPP option if you want to pay for Durant or spent up at PG/PF. It’s hard for me to roster any of the Bucks in cash games, but they always have GPP upside. Both he and Ilyasova would benefit from John Henson missing another game.
If/Then
| If Player Is Out | Then Consider This Replacement |
|---|---|
| If Michael Carter-Williams is out | Then consider Tony Wroten for $4,900 |
| If Ty Lawson is out | Then consider Evan Fournier for $3,900 |
| If DeMarcus Cousins is out | Then consider Jason Thompson for $4,900 |
DraftKings
Nick Calathes – A starter at PG who should play 35+ minutes, for minimum price? Sign me up. He’ll be among the most highly owned players tonight, and it’s pretty easy to understand why. I don’t think he comes close to scoring 22 NBA points again, but he should still fall around the 25 FP mark.
Courtney Lee – Lee also gets a big bump in value with Conley on the shelf. He’s a very safe cash game play who has a floor of about 25 fantasy points as long as this one doesn’t turn into a blowout early, which seems very doubtful to me. Fade the Grizzlies guards at your own risk.
Marco Belinelli – I wouldn’t pay $5,000 for him on FanDuel, but I do love the price for him on DraftKings. Along with being a site that doesn’t deduct for missed shots, they also award a 3PT bonus, which plays into Belinelli’s strength as a shooter. As long as the Leonard, Green and Manu are on the shelf, Belinelli will always be in play for this price. New Orleans doesn’t defend SG’s all that well either, which is another nice bonus for Marco.
Shaun Livingston – Even with Deron Williams back in the starting lineup, Livingston is still producing at a nice rate. He’s been right around the 30 FP mark in his last two games, and now gets to take on the Sixers. The Nets will be playing well up in pace tonight (the Sixers lead the league in pace), and Philly struggles to defend every position on the floor. Don’t be afraid to roster a few Nets tonight.
Khris Middleton – He’s back in the starting lineup, and could be used to shadow Carmelo Anthony this evening. Middleton was posting some huge stat lines in big minutes earlier in the season, but he’s cooled off considerably since that time, and I’m sure Larry Drew constantly changing his role on the team has had something to do with that. For $3,900, he has nice GPP upside and is in play for cash games as long as Drew doesn’t randomly decide to remove him from the starting lineup.
Jae Crowder – Crowder is minimum priced and will draw the start with Shawn Marion out of action, but if you do decide to roster him, don’t watch the game. He isn’t involved at all on offense, except off kick-outs (brought on by double teams to Dirk) or off the fast break, so he’s a very frustrating player to follow from a fantasy standpoint. That being said, he doesn’t need to do all that much to meet value, and I’d be surprised if he couldn’t crack the 20 FP mark.
Marvin Williams – For $3,300, there might not be a better sneaky value option out there then Marvin Williams. Derrick Favors and Jeremy Evans are expected to miss tonight’s game, which would once again open up big minutes for Williams. He’s been in double-double territory over his past two games, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him approach that again tonight. Williams also carries some risk, but I’d be surprised if he didn’t exceed value tonight.
Timofey Mozgov – If you really need to punt the center spot in a GPP tonight, you should consider Mozgov. The Clippers have been really bad at defending opposing front-courts, and Mozgov could see some extra playing time to match-up with the Clippers size up front. DeAndre and Blake both play big minutes on a nightly basis, and if Mozgov can crack the 25 minute mark, he’ll pay off his price tag. He can be a fantasy point per minute kind of guy off the bench.
| If Player Is Out | Then Consider This Replacement |
|---|---|
| If Michael Carter-Williams is out | Then consider Tony Wroten for $3,900 |
| If Ty Lawson is out | Then consider Evan Fournier for $3,800 |
| If DeMarcus Cousins is out | Then consider Jason Thompson for $4,600 |
DraftStreet
Joe Johnson – The perennial all-star is priced at just $7,069 tonight, so he’ll be in just about all of my lineups tonight. Anyone who plays big minutes against Philly is bound to put up a decent fantasy total, and all you need from Johnson is about 20 FP’s for him to exceed value. I could see him scoring 20 NBA points against the poor Philly perimeter defense, so I can’t see a good reason not to roster him tonight.
Nick Calathes – I’m not sure how his price hasn’t come up at least a little bit, but he still sits at just $6,099 tonight against OKC. The Florida alum will see upwards of 35 minutes tonight, which will give him plenty of time to pay off his price tag tonight. You can roster him and Joe Johnson for just about 13K, which gives you a ton of cap to spend on the rest of your lineup.
Courtney Lee – I would have no issue with rostering both Memphis guards, especially if you don’t want to stomach rostering Joe Johnson. My only concern at this price is that he’ll be shadowed by Thabo, who is one of the better on-ball defenders in the NBA. Personally, I’m more comfortable with JJ/Calathes, but I can’t argue with anyone who would rather roster Lee. All three of these guys should pay off their price tags, so if you really want to spend up at forward and center, you could use each of them.
Tony Wroten – He was included in the “If/Then” for the other two sites, but I included him here because if MCW sits, he is absolutely a must-play for $5,883. He would need about 16-17 fantasy points to pay off his price tag, and I could see him putting up that many NBA points, and that’s before you include assists/boards and steals/blocks. Wroten is an exciting player who can contribute in many different categories, and I’d be absolutely shocked if he didn’t exceed value as the starter.
Jarrett Jack – Jack stepped into the starting lineup alongside Kyrie Irving in the Cavs last game, and if he stays in that spot again, he should pay off his $6,331 price tag with ease. It’s rare that you can get a starter with Jack’s talent at this price level, and while I’d rather roster the plays listed above, I also think Jack is capable of ending up in the 22-28 FP range, which would be a great return on his price tag.
Reggie Jackson – Jackson is priced about $2K above the BBB cutoff, but I felt like he was worth mentioning anyway, because he still seems underpriced given the match-up. While Memphis has been great against PG’s this season, Mike Conley is no longer around to wreak havoc. Instead, Jackson will do battle with Nick Calathes, who isn’t half the defender that Conley is, and I expect Jackson to eat him alive this evening. Some people might look at the match-up and be scared away, but consider the game Brandon Knight just put up against Calathes. If Knight can do it, so can Jackson.
Ersan Ilyasova – He’s been playing consistent minutes lately when he avoids foul trouble, and I love the upside he possesses for under $10K tonight. The match-up is less then ideal, but as long as he gets an ample number of shot attempts and hits the boards at a decent clip, he should fall somewhere in the 24-28 fantasy point range. Since I’m saving cap at the guard spots in my cash games, Ersan will most likely find himself in my GPP-only lineups tonight.
Tristan Thompson – I told myself never again with Tristan after he burned me on Thursday night against the Knicks, but it’s hard to ignore his $8,953 price tag tonight. He’s actually looked better with Varejao in the lineup, as it takes some of the pressure off him both offensively and defensively. To be fair, there is no way I’m rostering him in cash games (partly because I don’t need to save money at the forward spot), but he’s certainly in play as a GPP option when he’s this cheap.