NBA DFS Grind Down: Top FanDuel and DraftKings Picks (12/7)

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2023-12-07 18:26:48

Another day, another 2-game NBA DFS slate. The In-Season Tournament semifinals will go down today in Las Vegas, and we’ve got an awfully early lock time of 5 PM ET. Pacers-Bucks will kick off the festivities, while the Pelicans will face the Lakers in the nightcap. On Saturday, the winners of today’s game will square off with the NBA Cup on the line.

Below, you’ll find a deeper dive into today’s slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.

NBA DFS Preview for Thursday, December 6

Indiana Pacers

• Pace of Play: 107 (1st)
• Offensive Efficiency: 119.6 (1st)
• Defensive Efficiency: 117.5 (28th)

Notable Injuries

• Jalen Smith – OUT

This will be the second meeting of the season between the Bucks and Pacers. These are 2 of the best offensive teams in the league, while both are near the bottom of the barrel in terms of defensive rating. Both also play at extremely quick paces. The teams combined to score 250 points in their first matchup, and today’s rematch features an insane 257-point over/under. That’s the highest we’ve seen all season. Indiana is a 5.5-point underdog here.

It’s hard to believe, but the triple-double Tyrese Haliburton posted on Monday was the first of his NBA career. Not too shabby for a guy that came into that day questionable with an illness. On the year, Hali ranks among the league leaders in fantasy points per minute (1.62). He leads the Pacers in usage (27.3%), while he leads the world in assist rate (45.8%). Hali is a bit cheaper than Giannis Antetokounmpo on DK and FD, and he makes for a terrific target in all formats, of course. The salary does make him more of a tournament target in my view, however.

The Pacers otherwise feature a fairly deep rotation, particularly on the wings. Bruce Brown, Buddy Hield, and Aaron Nesmith all topped 30 minutes in the win over Boston earlier this week. Obi Toppin played just 26 minutes in his starting role, while Bennedict Mathurin played his usual high-usage role spearheading Indiana’s second unit. Andrew Nembhard and T.J. McConnell combined for just 14 minutes off the bench with Haliburton logging 40. Hield’s salaries have risen to the point that he’s strictly a GPP target, though Brown, Nesmith, and Mathurin are still cheap enough to play in any format. Toppin is a fringe tournament value, though he’ll be significantly lower-owned than the rest of these guys.

Myles Turner (1.27 FP/min) remains quite productive, and it was nice to see him get up to 34 minutes the other night. The playing time should be relatively safe here in an elimination game, and Turner pops as the best point-per-dollar value on the team on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Milwaukee Bucks

• Pace of Play: 103.8 (5th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 117.5 (3rd)
• Defensive Efficiency: 113.2 (21st)

Notable Injuries

• Pat Connaughton – OUT
• Jae Crowder – OUT

The Bucks walloped the Knicks on Tuesday night, punching their ticket to Vegas in the process. Milwaukee has the highest implied team total we’ve seen all year (131.25) in the nut matchup today against a fast-paced, no-defense Indiana side.

As always, we’ll start with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard. Giannis is the top overall play on the slate (1.63 FP/min.), and all he did the last time he faced the Pacers was put 54 real points on the board. It’s worth noting that Lillard missed that game, but Indiana features zero rim protection. The Pacers are yielding 62.6 points in the paint per game, and we know Giannis does most of his damage around the bucket. It’s really just a matter of whether you can afford to pay up for him. Lillard, meanwhile, is still coming at a relative discount at $9,000 on DraftKings and $9,200 on FanDuel. His usage is predictably lower than it was last year in Portland, but he’s still averaging around 1.3 FP/min. and logging 38-40 minutes every night.

Milwaukee has gotten solid production from Khris Middleton (1.17 FP/min.) and Malik Beasley (0.79), as well. Beasley has played at least 33 minutes in each of the last 5 games. Middleton’s playing time is still capped at between 25 and 27 minutes, but he does enough while he’s out there to warrant consideration in such a fruitful matchup.

MarJon Beauchamp, Bobby Portis, Cameron Payne, and AJ Green are in play as values off the bench. Portis (1.01 FP/min.) is obviously the best producer of the bunch, but he hardly pops in a 24-minute projection. The others are really just large-field GPP dart throws you can mix into stars-and-scrubs lineup builds. Brook Lopez (0.97 FP/min) comes with the usual caveats as a scoring-reliant center, but I like his chances of picking up some stocks in a pace-up spot. He’s reasonably priced around the industry and easily fits into a balanced build.

New Orleans Pelicans

• Pace of Play: 102.1 (12th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 112.8 (12th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 110.5 (13th)

Notable Injuries

• Larry Nance – OUT
• Matt Ryan – OUT

While a ton of attention will rightfully focus on the first game, Pelicans-Lakers has decent shootout potential of its own. The Pels are 2-point underdogs in a game with a 230.5 over/under. While this game is technically taking place at a neutral site, we can safely expect a very Laker-heavy crowd with LA just a 4-hour drive away from Las Vegas.

Zion Williamson (29.6%) and Brandon Ingram (29.9%) are the usage hubs for New Orleans, though both take a hit in that regard with CJ McCollum (24.6%) now back in the mix. CJ is still way overpriced around the industry for the role he plays with this team largely healthy. Zion and BI, however, both feel underpriced in the low-$8,000 range on both sites. I do prefer Zion as the superior per-minute producer, but I have zero qualms with Ingram in any format, either.

Trey Murphy has only played in 2 games all year, but he got up to 30 minutes off the bench in Monday’s win in Sacramento. If the Pels aren’t concerned about limiting his minutes, Murphy is a tick too cheap around the industry as a decent per-minute producer (1.02). He’s one of my favorite values on the board, particularly in tournaments. Jose Alvarado (0.98 FP/min.) likely won’t even crack 20 minutes off the bench, but we’re short on punt value on this slate. He’s another guy I think you can mix into large-field GPP builds, especially on FanDuel ($4,100).

Herb Jones won’t get much usage playing with the starters (15%), but he’s still contributing 0.9 FP/min. thanks to his ability to rack up ancillary stats. The minutes should be there, too, as the Pels will almost surely deploy Jones as the primary defender on LeBron James in this one. Jonas Valanciunas (1.22 FP/min.) comes in behind Myles Turner and Brook Lopez in terms of midrange center priorities for me, but his minutes have been a bit more trustworthy with Larry Nance out of the lineup.

Los Angeles Lakers

• Pace of Play: 102.5 (10th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 109 (23rd)
• Defensive Efficiency: 108.8 (9th)

Notable Injuries

• LeBron James – “QUESTIONABLE”
• Gabe Vincent – OUT

The Lakers continue to list LeBron James as questionable despite the fact that he’s played approximately 100 games in a row despite a “calf injury.” Come on now. We know he’s not sitting, and so do the Pelicans. Enough with this nonsense. Anyway, the Lakers are 2-point favorites over the Pelicans in this one, but their 116.25 implied team total ranks a distant third on the slate behind the teams in the Pacers-Bucks extravaganza.

James put up a vintage performance in Tuesday’s win over the Suns, finishing with 31 points, 11 assists, 8 rebounds, and 5 steals in 40 minutes. I expect he and Anthony Davis (1.45 FP/min.) to both go relatively overlooked from an ownership standpoint with everybody focusing on the first game. Both of these guys are terrific plays in all formats, especially on DK where we’re still getting them for under $10,000. On FanDuel, I’d rather find the extra money to pay up for the Haliburtons, Antetokounmpos, and Lillards of the world.

Austin Reaves played a heroic role in that win over the Suns, while D’Angelo Russell struggled considerably in just 24 minutes. The Lakers have had a pretty quick hook on D-Lo since Reaves moved to the bench role, and we have both of them projected for 28 minutes today. Reaves is the far better value, given the huge discount on FD, while Russell projects a bit better for $300 more on DraftKings.

Taurean Prince (0.55 FP/min.) has really struggled this season, which makes him a fringey value even in a steady role. I do think Prince’s minutes are riskier now that Rui Hachimura and Jarred Vanderbilt are back in the fold. None of these guys project well from a median standpoint, but they are cheap enough to keep in your player pool if you’re MMEing.

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