NBA DFS Grind Down: Top FanDuel and DraftKings Picks (11/16)

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2023-11-16 20:06:20

As usual, the NBA is slowing things down a bit on Thursday night. We’ve got just 2 games on the schedule, though both feature close spreads. The Heat are 3-point home favorites over the visiting Nets in the early game, while the Thunder are road favorites over the reeling and shorthanded Warriors in the nightcap.

How should we build on DraftKings and FanDuel for tonight’s tiny 2-gamer? Let’s dive right in.

NBA DFS Preview for Thursday, November 16

Brooklyn Nets

• Pace of Play: 101.7 (11th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 112.4 (8th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 110.3 (16th)

Notable Injuries

• Cam Thomas – OUT
• Ben Simmons – OUT

The Nets have flown under the radar early in the season. They’re off to a 6-5 start with a +1.7 point differential, and they enter tonight’s game in Miami as winners of 2 straight. Cam Thomas and Ben Simmons are still sidelined by injuries, though Cam Johnson and Nic Claxton did recently return from their own absences.

Thomas is a significant source of usage for this team. Mikal Bridges (+4.5%) and Spencer Dinwiddie (+3.2%) are predictably much more involved offensively when he’s out of the lineup. The issue with the Nets is Jacque Vaughn is running a deep rotation, so nobody is projecting to play more than Dinwiddie’s 33 minutes in our projections. Dinwiddie feels safe enough to trust as a midrange option in all formats, but I’ll have a hard time prioritizing Bridges at $8,000 on both sites in a tough matchup against Miami. It is easier to get to him on FanDuel, even if he doesn’t grade out well on a point-per-dollar basis.

Johnson’s minutes have been a bit inconsistent since his return, but he did log 35 a couple of games ago. He grades out as the most alluring value from this team in 31 projected minutes here, and he’s likely still a bit underpriced for the role he’ll play with the Nets moving forward. Dorian Finney-Smith has been starting of late, though Royce O’Neale is always a threat to play big minutes off the bench. As usual, these low-usage forwards are better lineup fillers than lineup starters. O’Neale’s playing time seems a bit more trustworthy, though we’re certainly not going out of our way to cram these guys in.

Claxton enjoyed a breakout season last year, and he’s quietly producing at an elite 1.12 FP/min clip again in 2023-24. I think his minutes were skewed in the last game by the blowout, so I’m happy to look his way at a reasonable $6,100 DK salary. Claxton is much less of a priority on FanDuel, where he’s up at $7,200.

Miami Heat

• Pace of Play: 100.8 (13th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 109.6 (19th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 108.2 (9th)

Notable Injuries

• Tyler Herro – OUT

The Heat have won 6 straight games to climb up to 7-4 on the young season. They’re still playing without the injured Tyler Herro, but they’re otherwise healthy heading into tonight’s home clash with the Nets. Miami has picked up the pace early in the season, as they’re up to 13th after plodding their way to the 29th-fastest pace in basketball a season ago.

Herro’s absence has opened up a starting spot for Duncan Robinson, so get excited for that. Robinson hasn’t fared poorly in his non-Herro minutes this season (21% usage, 0.81 FP/min), and he’s logged at least 35 minutes in 3 of the last 4 games. Of course, his torrid run of form has also resulted in a price hike, as he’s up to $5,800 on DK and $6,000 on FD. You can do just about anything in a large-field GPP, but I can’t really justify paying top dollar for Duncan Robinson. Kyle Lowry (0.87 FP/min) has also picked up his play without Herro, though his most recent outing was ruined by some incredibly early foul trouble. Lowry is still in the mid-$5,000s around the industry and projected to top 30 minutes in a beatable matchup against Brooklyn. I don’t feel good about it, but I do think Lowry makes for a strong value on such a small slate.

As you’d expect, Jimmy Butler (27.8%) and Bam Adebayo (27.6%) are generating most of the Heat’s usage without Herro. Adebayo is also leading Miami in rebound rate (17.9%), while he’s second to only Lowry in assist rate (20.6%). He’s a top defender, too, so he’s been a solid source of blocks and steals, too. We’re paying up for Bam these days, but he’s justifying it. He projects as the best center on the slate by a huge margin, and he’s someone to target as a spend in all formats. Regular-season Jimmy may not be quite as consistently dynamic as Playoff Jimmy, but the minutes are consistent and $8,600 doesn’t feel like too much to pay. On a slate with limited options, I’m fine with pairing Butler and Bam, even in tournaments.

Jaime Jaquez (0.87 FP/min) and Josh Richardson (0.65) are both projected for mid-20s minutes off the bench, while Haywood Highsmith (0.96 FP/min) has played quite well despite a low-usage role as the fifth starter. I don’t mind taking a stab at the cheap Jaquez ($4,500) on DraftKings, but none of these guys will pop unless we get some unexpected injury news from Miami.

Oklahoma City Thunder

• Pace of Play: 103 (5th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 112.2 (15th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 111.6 (15th)

Notable Injuries

None

The Thunder are everyone’s favorite team to secretly follow on the side these days, as they have a young, exciting core of talent. OKC is off to a 7-4 start, and they’re exactly 15th in both offensive and defensive rating. Their +4.9 point differential is the fourth-best in the West, and they’re road favorites over a shorthanded version of the Warriors this evening.

Everything for this team revolves around the great Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. His 32% usage rate ranks among the league’s elite, as does his 1.56 FP/min average. This version of the Warriors isn’t the same defensive juggernaut we’ve seen over the years, especially with Draymond Green unavailable. $10,600 on DraftKings feels downright cheap for the ceiling SGA brings to the table, while he rates out decently enough up at $11,300 on FanDuel. As the only true superstar on the entire slate, I plan to make paying up for Gilgeous-Alexander a core part of my builds in all formats tonight.

Josh Giddey is still productive (0.99 FP/min), as he’s still second on the team in usage (25.4%) in addition to everything else he does while he’s out there. His minutes have been shaky as a result of Mark Daigneault’s seemingly unlimited rotation, which is the only thing keeping Giddey from being an elite value at $7,000 on both sites. Jalen Williams (0.85 FP/min) and Lu Dort (0.91) have flashed wide ranges of outcomes. I prefer finding the money for J-Dub between the two, while Dort looks like a leftover. Isaiah Joe doesn’t project too well from a median standpoint, but he’s below $4,000 on both sites and projected for 18 minutes. On a small slate, he may just have to do as a punt.

Chet Holmgren (1.21 FP/min, 19.9% usage) is another guy who has shown a decent ceiling along with a fairly low floor. Chet is near the top of the center totem pole on this slate, but that has more to do with positional scarcity than anything else.

Golden State Warriors

• Pace of Play: 103.5 (1st)
• Offensive Efficiency: 113.5 (9th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 111.7 (17th)

Notable Injuries

• Stephen Curry – OUT
• Draymond Green – OUT

The Warriors will be without Steph Curry again tonight because of a knee injury. Draymond Green, meanwhile, just got a 5-game ban for putting Rudy Gobert into a headlock the other night. Classic Draymond. The Dubs are 2-point home underdogs to the upstart Thunder tonight, even without two starters, and they come into tonight riding a 4-game losing streak.

Chris Paul (1.03 FP/min) will take the reins with Curry sidelined. He logged 36 minutes in the last game in a starting role, and we have him projected for 34 tonight. He might be the most popular play on the slate even after a salary hike, but with good reason. Assuming he doesn’t get into another kerfuffle, Klay Thompson should see extra usage with Steph out of the lineup. I don’t mind him as a midrange option with a decent ceiling on DK ($6,600), but he’s much easier to get to for $800 less over on FanDuel.

Andrew Wiggins should be another guy who gets a usage bump without Curry, but his season is off to an absolutely dismal start. Wiggins is still cheap enough around the industry to merit a look given his long track record of decent production, but I certainly don’t feel good about it. We have Dario Saric projected to start in place of Draymond, though Jonathan Kuminga could also play a solid role off the bench. Saric is the more trustworthy option of the two, though I don’t hate giving Kuminga a whirl at lower ownership in tournaments. Kevon Looney isn’t an exciting way to fill a center slot, but he’s going out there and producing at a very impressive clip (1.07 FP/min). He’s also reasonably priced around the industry. Bam will be my highest-owned center, but Looney ($5,400 DK, $5,900 FD) is second on the list.

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