NBA DFS Grind Down: Top FanDuel and DraftKings Picks (11/9)

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2023-11-09 17:49:46

After a 14-game bonanza on Wednesday, we’re back with a tame 2-game NBA DFS slate on Thursday. The Bucks and Pacers will square off in a matchup between teams playing their second game in as many nights. In the nightcap, the only two teams that didn’t play last night – the Hawks and Magic – will do battle in Mexico City.

How should we build on DraftKings and FanDuel for tonight’s wee 2-gamer? Let’s dive right in.

NBA DFS Preview for Thursday, November 9

Milwaukee Bucks

• Pace of Play: 104.2 (6th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 112.7 (10th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 114.3 (25th)

Notable Injuries

None

The Bucks are off to a decent enough 5-2 start, but they haven’t passed the eye test. Milwaukee actually has a negative point differential (-2.3), which is the worst mark of any of the East’s current top-10 teams, save for Miami (-2.6). The Bucks’ defense has been particularly atrocious, as they’re just 25th in defensive efficiency through their first 7 games under new head coach Adrian Griffin. They have won 4 of their last 5, however, including a dramatic comeback win at home over an upstart Pistons outfit just last night. In Indiana tonight, Giannis Antetokounmpo and friends are 3.5-point favorites over the Pacers.

Speaking of Giannis, he got ejected in the third last night after hitting a defender with the “too small” celebration after a dunk. It was his second technical of the game. There’s no reason to think Antetokounmpo won’t be suiting up tonight, and the matchup against the Pacers couldn’t be better. Giannis’ per-minute average has dipped to 1.42 so far this season as he acclimates to life with Damian Lillard. It’s fair to wonder if he still has the same ceiling we’ve seen in years past, but he’s also a very difficult fade here. Indiana is one of the worst defensive teams in the league, and Giannis’ mid-$10,000 salaries aren’t even all that cumbersome. I’ll stop short of calling Antetokounmpo an absolute must, but I’ll likely come in around even with the field in tournaments.

Lillard (28.5%) predictably isn’t generating as much usage as he did as the main man in Portland, but the minutes are still going to be there. I’d rather prioritize Tyrese Haliburton if I’m paying top dollar at point guard tonight, but Dame is always viable as a pivot at a lower pOWN%. Khris Middleton is due back tonight, which will push Jae Crowder back to the bench. Middleton’s simply too expensive for the minutes he’s been playing, while Crowder now gets lost in the shuffle of wings and guards here alongside Malik Beasley, Pat Connaughton, and MarJon Beauchamp. Beauchamp ($3,300) is at least somewhat viable as a large-field punt on DraftKings if you’re brave.

Brook Lopez (17.5%) gets very limited usage these days, but the minutes are still solid enough in competitive games. This tiny slate isn’t rife with glorious options at center, so Lopez looks decent at his sub-$6,000 salaries. Bobby Portis will likely only see around 20 minutes off the bench, but he’s productive enough to be worth your while at $5,500 on DK and $5,300 on FD.

Indiana Pacers

• Pace of Play: 106.4 (2nd)
• Offensive Efficiency: 117.1 (1st)
• Defensive Efficiency: 115.3 (26th)

Notable Injuries

None

The Pacers won a high-scoring affair at home over the Jazz last night, and their homestand continues tonight with the Bucks in town. Indiana is now 5-3, and it’s fair to expect most of their games to be shootouts. Indy has put at least 121 points on the board in each of their wins. They’ve yielded at least 112 in every loss, including a gaudy 155-spot to the Celtics. In related news, 7 of the 8 games involving the Pacers this season have gone over the Vegas total.

Tyrese Haliburton leads the team in usage (26.6%) and assist rate (50%!), which explains how he’s averaging nearly 1.6 FP/min on the year. That’s a better rate than we’ve seen from Giannis in the early going. He’s up to $10,000 on both sites, but I think the 5-figure salaries are here to stay. I’m happy to plop that down for Hali in all formats tonight, and he looks like the top overall play on the slate at any position. Jrue Holiday ain’t walking through that door, and Milwaukee’s defensive decline isn’t all that surprising.

Bennedict Mathurin is starting over Buddy Hield these days, and we finally saw a big game out of the former last night. Buddy is always a threat to play his way into more minutes off the bench, and Rick Carlisle appears content to ride the hot hand with this rotation. Mathurin is the better point-per-dollar value around the industry, though Hield is still cheap enough to make sense as a play at $5,200 on FD. You can say the same of Bruce Brown ($5,000), who looks overpriced on DK ($6,100).

Obi Toppin is starting with his new team, but Jalen Smith and Aaron Nesmith are lurking off the bench. We’ve seen big games from all of them already, but it’s hard to have too much trust in any of them given the volatile minutes. Smith on DK is cheap ($4,000), but still just a GPP dart throw. Myles Turner is still as productive as ever, but his salaries are on the rise. He is the best center on the slate from a median projection standpoint, but I prefer going cheaper at the position tonight.

Atlanta Hawks

• Pace of Play: 104.8 (4th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 115.9 (3rd)
• Defensive Efficiency: 111.8 (19th)

Notable Injuries

• Wesley Matthews – OUT
• Kobe Bufkin – OUT

The Hawks and Magic will square off in a Southeast Division clash down in Mexico City. This game has the lower total of the two on the schedule tonight, but it’s still checking in at a healthy enough 231.5. Atlanta is favored by about a field goal here.

As usual, Trae Young is soaking up most of the Hawks’ usage (29.1%) while also pacing the squad in assist rate (41%). His profile is awfully similar to that of Haliburton, albeit with a little less efficiency. I do slightly prefer Trae to Damian Lillard if I’m looking to pivot away from Haliburton at PG, especially considering his floor seems to be a bit more stable. Dejounte Murray is still productive (1.17 FP/min) even next to Young, but he always feels overpriced. I’m more willing to include Murray in builds on such a short slate, but it’s hard to call him a priority.

De’Andre Hunter is a safe source of minutes, but that’s really the only thing safe about him. Bogdan Bogdanovic (1.05 FP/min) has been more productive in a reserve role. It feels admittedly gross, but Bogdanovic looks like one of the better sources of salary relief on the slate. Saddiq Bey and Jalen Johnson have been trading the starting power forward job early in the year, though Johnson currently seems to have the inside track. Johnson (1.11 FP/min) seems to be in the midst of a breakout year, and his salaries have risen quickly to reflect as much. He’s still a nice midrange play in all formats. Bey, meanwhile, is a leftover.

Clint Capela is still the starting center with Onyeka Okongwu playing a steady role off the bench. Okongwu continues to project extremely well for the dollar on DK ($4,200) even in limited minutes, and that’s the case again tonight. I don’t even hate the idea of pairing him with Capela on DK with limited options at center. On FD, Capela is the obvious target for just $200 more than his backup.

Orlando Magic

• Pace of Play: 102.7 (14th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 105.1 (28th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 103.3 (2nd)

Notable Injuries

• Markelle Fultz – QUESTIONABLE
• Wendell Carter – OUT
• Gary Harris – OUT

The Magic have a winning record early in the year thanks to a stellar defense. They come into this one second in defensive rating, while they’re just 28th in offense. They’re essentially the Pacers’ Wario these days. Both teams are winning, though, so whatever works. Orlando is a 3.5-point underdog against Atlanta in this one.

Markelle Fultz is questionable, which is really the only news item we have to follow as of now. He’s missed the last few games with a sore knee, which has vaulted rookie Anthony Black into a starting role. Black has been decent enough (0.8 FP/min) in the minutes he’s played sans Fultz, and he’s topped 30 minutes in consecutive games. If Markelle sits again, I’m fine going back to Black. If Fultz suits up, he looks decent at $5,100 on DK in 28 projected minutes. I’d have more interest in Jalen Suggs and Cole Anthony if Fultz remains out, though both are a bit expensive for their roles if Fultz returns tonight.

Paolo Banchero (+1.8%) and Franz Wagner (+1.2%) see elevated usage with Fultz and Wendell Carter both on the bench. Paolo seems to have snapped out of his early-season funk, while Wagner continues to provide his usual high-floor/low-ceiling production given consistent minutes. I’ll be getting to plenty of both Orlando forwards as midrange values in all formats. Goga Bitadze (1.35 FP/min) figures to draw another start at center with Carter down, though Moe Wagner outplayed him off the bench in the last game. Bitadze still pops in projections as arguably the best center value on the entire slate, though I have lots of interest in Wagner as a lower-owned pivot in tournaments.

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