NBA DFS Grind Down: Top FanDuel and DraftKings Picks (12/5)

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2023-12-05 17:00:42

On the heels of Monday’s In-Season Tournament action, the other two quarterfinal matchups will go down on Tuesday night. The Bucks will host the Knicks in the first game, with the winner set to face the Pacers in Vegas on Thursday. Out west, the Suns will visit the Lakers with a Thursday date against the Pelicans on the line. As was the case yesterday, both games tonight feature fairly tight spreads, and the teams should be running tight rotations, given the single-elimination In-Season Tournament format.

Let’s get a bird’s-eye view of this 2-gamer, shall we?

NBA DFS Preview for Tuesday, December 5

New York Knicks

• Pace of Play: 98.5 (28th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 111.5 (17th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 108.1 (6th)

Notable Injuries

• Evan Fournier – QUESTIONABLE
• DaQuan Jeffries – QUESTIONABLE

The Knicks have the lowest implied team total (110) of the four teams in action tonight, though they’re only 5-point underdogs here in Milwaukee. That total is about a point below their season average, but they aren’t dealing with any major injuries at the moment. This is a nice on-paper spot for New York, as Milwaukee’s running at a top-5 pace with a bottom-10 defensive rating in the season’s early stages.

We know most of the Knicks’ usage will flow through Julius Randle (28.4%) and Jalen Brunson (28%). At $8,700 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Randle is one of the few players on this slate that actually looks a little underpriced. Given the lack of value out there, Randle is shaping up to be a core play for me in tournaments as of this writing. Brunson isn’t necessarily overpriced, either, and on a short slate, I think you can get away with pairing them in GPP builds.

Quentin Grimes is still a fake starter for this team, most often topping out around just 20 minutes. Given his woeful per-minute production (0.51), he barely makes the cut as a punt value in such a limited role. Immanuel Quickley, Josh Hart, and Donte DiVincenzo have all carved out notable roles off the bench. There are enough bodies in the mix here where none of them pops as a great play in median projections, but I don’t mind mixing and matching them as cheap dart throws. I feel most confident in Hart, considering he’s topped 30 minutes in 3 straight games, but we’ve also seen Quickley (1.02 FP/min.) flash a high ceiling.

The last name worth a shout here is Mitchell Robinson (0.86 FP/min.). His lack of usage gives him a low floor, but we’ve seen Robinson playing a bigger role recently. He’s topped 30 minutes in 4 straight games and 6 of the last 7 overall.

Milwaukee Bucks

• Pace of Play: 103.8 (5th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 116.1 (4th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 113.1 (22nd)

Notable Injuries

• Pat Connaughton – OUT
• Andre Jackson – QUESTIONABLE
• Jae Crowder – OUT

We’ve been talking about how great games involving the Pacers have been from a DFS standpoint this season, but what about the Bucks? Milwaukee is 4th in offense, 5th in pace, and just 22nd in defense. They’re not quite as extreme as the Pacers in any of those categories, but these games can be shootouts. Milwaukee’s 115-point implied team total is the highest on tonight’s slate despite a matchup against a slow-paced, defensive-minded Knicks squad.

Giannis Antetokounmpo isn’t pushing 40% usage the way he was last year now that Damian Lillard is in the mix, but he still leads the team in that regard (34.2%) alongside a stellar 1.61 FP/min. average. The issue is we’re getting no discount with Giannis around the industry, and the Knicks aren’t an easy matchup. New York is allowing the fourth-fewest points in the paint per game on the season, and we know Giannis does most of his damage around the rim. Antetokounmpo is a scary fade on a 2-game slate, but I prefer other spends this evening. Meanwhile, Lillard is still producing (28.4% usage, 1.27 FP/min.) despite a lower-usage role this season. The minutes have been there on a nightly basis, yet he’s constantly hovering in the $9,000 range. Dame is a strong play in all formats, particularly on FD.

Khris Middleton has struggled to stay healthy in recent years, but he’s still quite effective while he’s out there (25.7% usage, 1.17 FP/min.). He’s topping out around 25 minutes per game, but that’s enough for him to be playable at around $6,000 on both DK and FD. Malik Beasley (0.8 FP/min.) is quietly in the midst of a torrid run of form, and he’s played at least 36 minutes in 4 straight. He feels like a bit of a chase, but the price points are still reasonable.

Guys like MarJon Beauchamp and Cameron Payne are projected to log around 20 minutes off the bench. They certainly won’t pop in projections as great values, but they’re playing enough to be viable as punts if you’re entering multiple GPP lineups. Brook Lopez (0.97 FP/min.) is still playing at a high level, though he’s far more scoring-reliant than your typical center. I’d rather take the savings with Robinson if I’m paying down at center. Bobby Portis (1.01) continues to fill it up in a high-usage bench role. As is the case with Beasley, I think Portis is squarely in play as a midrange value flier in tournaments.

Phoenix Suns

• Pace of Play: 100.2 (22nd)
• Offensive Efficiency: 114.1 (9th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 111.4 (16th)

Notable Injuries

• Bradley Beal – OUT
• Eric Gordon – QUESTIONABLE
• Damion Lee – OUT

The Suns are listed as slight 1.5-point underdogs in LA tonight against the Lakers. Phoenix’s 113 implied team total is 3.5 south of their season average, which is the second-largest negative discrepancy on the slate.

Devin Booker (33.3% usage, 1.48 FP/min.) is running point for the Suns this season, almost by default. His 40% assist rate so far this season is easily a career-best, and he ranks among the league leaders. It’s easier to prioritize the cheaper point guards on this slate, which could leave Booker a little under-owned for his upside in tournaments. Kevin Durant (33.2% usage, 1.44 FP/min.) just keeps going out there and putting up beefy lines on a nightly basis, and you can argue he’s the more underpriced of the Suns’ superstars. Durant is an elite play in all formats, as always.

Eric Gordon is questionable after missing the last game. In that one, we saw Josh Okogie rejoin the starting lineup next to Grayson Allen with Keita Bates-Diop, Yuta Watanabe, Nassir Little, and Jordan Goodwin all seeing 15-19 minutes off the bench. Allen is the safest bet for minutes among Phoenix’s secondary pieces, which puts him on my radar despite a middling 0.72 FPPM rate. Gordon is a tough sell on DK ($5,900) if he plays, but $5,100 on FanDuel is still cheap enough. Okogie becomes a much more alluring value if Gordon sits, though I’d be concerned about the potential for his ownership to skyrocket in that scenario.

Jusuf Nurkic (1.22 FP/min.) has played very well of late, and we’ve seen him playing more minutes at the expense of Drew Eubanks. The issue with Nurk is that his salaries have risen quite a bit over the past couple of weeks, and the Lakers aren’t the breeziest of matchups.

Los Angeles Lakers

• Pace of Play: 102.6 (10th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 109.2 (23rd)
• Defensive Efficiency: 109 (9th)

Notable Injuries

• LeBron James – “QUESTIONABLE”
• Gabe Vincent – OUT

LeBron James is “questionable” tonight with the same calf injury he’s been battling for weeks, but there’s no way he’s missing this game. The Lakers are slight home favorites here over the visiting Suns, and their 114.5 implied team total is the second-highest on the night.

James has been rather quiet by his standards of late, but his overall season numbers (29.7% usage, 1.42 FP/min.) remain impressive. Minutes haven’t been an issue at all, and he’s still coming in at under $10,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. I slightly prefer Durant or Anthony Davis if I’m hunting for a star in that range, though I’d expect James to be a little more contrarian. Anthony Davis (1.46 FP/min.) has been in stellar form of late, which may explain LeBron’s recent downtick in production. $11,400 on FanDuel looks about right, but $10,000 on DK is a clear underpay.

D’Angelo Russell (1.11 FP/min.) is affordable around the industry for the role he’s playing most nights, though the minutes have been a little shaky. Austin Reaves (0.97) has been much more boom/bust since his demotion to the bench, while this is otherwise a very deep rotation. Taurean Prince, Cam Reddish, and Max Christie have all been involved. However, we can expect more of Jarred Vanderbilt and Rui Hachimura now that both of them are back and healthy.

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