NBA DFS Grind Down: Top FanDuel and DraftKings Picks (10/31)

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2023-10-31 18:00:20

Happy Halloween! The first full week of the 2023-24 NBA season has come and gone, and we’ve already seen plenty of twists and turns along the way. No twist was more surprising than the news most of us woke up to this morning, as the Sixers have reportedly finally traded James Harden to the Clippers in exchange for their entire power forward rotation and some future draft considerations.

The Clips happen to be one of the six teams in action on tonight’s 3-game slate. Harden and PJ Tucker surely won’t be ready to suit up for their new squad right away, and the deal will leave Ty Lue with a relatively short rotation as a result. Norman Powell and Ivica Zubac are also questionable with injuries, so we’ll see how many bodies actually suit up for the Clippers tonight when they host the Magic.

We’ve also got a questionable tag on Donovan Mitchell ahead of the Cavs’ game against the Knicks, while the Victor Wembanyama tour will hit Phoenix for a date with the Suns. There’s a lot to sort through, so let’s dive right in and break down this 3-game NBA DFS slate.

NBA DFS Preview for Tuesday, October 31

New York Knicks

• Pace of Play: 102.1 (6th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 102.4 (22nd)
• Defensive Efficiency: 107 (14th)

Notable Injuries

None

The Knicks are off to a 1-2 start after a loss to the Pelicans on Sunday. The stars haven’t quite been playing like stars just yet, and that was particularly true in New Orleans. Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle combined to shoot just 8-for-29 from the field in that one along with 9 total turnovers. They’re actually listed as 2.5-point favorites on the road tonight over a Cleveland team that may be without 3 starters once again. We know Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen are already out, while Mitchell missed the Cavs’ game on Saturday night with a hamstring injury. This game also has the lowest total on the slate at 214 points.

RJ Barrett (27.9%) is actually your Knicks’ early-season usage leader, though Brunson (27.4%) and Randle (25.9%) aren’t too far behind. Barrett’s minutes upside isn’t quite as high as it used to be now that the Knicks actually have some wing depth. As a result, he feels like more of a lineup filler than a lineup starter in the low-$6,000s on both DraftKings and FanDuel. We’re not getting much of a discount on Brunson, either, even if this version of the Cavs likely won’t be as stingy as the unit last year that led the league in defensive efficiency.

Randle, however, does stand out at $8,000 on DK and $8,500 on FD. He’s still contributing 1.18 FP/min so far, and we know there’s room for improvement considering he finished at a 1.31 FP/min clip a season ago. The $7,000-$10,000 range is loaded at power forward on this slate, so we’ll see where Randle’s ownership falls. Nobody will go truly unowned with just 3 games, but Randle still stands out at these salaries.

Quentin Grimes will occasionally flash some upside as the low-usage fifth starter, but Josh Hart, Immanuel Quickley, and Donte DiVincenzo are all lurking off the bench. Any of them is capable of poaching Grimes’ minutes, though we have them projected to essentially cannibalize one another tonight. Quickley’s the one I’d be most inclined to fire off as a YOLO GPP dart given his production (1.13 FP/min), but he’s not necessarily cheap, either. We’ve also seen a wide range of minutes outcomes for Mitchell Robinson already with Isaiah Hartenstein backing him up. $5,100 for Robinson on DK keeps him in play for tournaments, though I won’t be viewing him as any sort of a priority.

Cleveland Cavaliers

• Pace of Play: 102.7 (5th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 108.5 (13th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 111.5 (20th)

Notable Injuries

• Donovan Mitchell – QUESTIONABLE
• Caris LeVert – QUESTIONABLE
• Jarrett Allen – OUT
• Darius Garland – OUT
• Ricky Rubio – OUT
• Ty Jerome – OUT

The Cavs are already getting crushed by injuries, though we’ll see if Mitchell is well enough to return after missing the last game with a sore hamstring. If he does play, he should lead Cleveland in usage with Garland out of the mix. He’s up to 1.52 FP/min in a limited sample of non-Garland minutes so far this season, and we’ve got him projected for 37 minutes. Some quick mathing there makes Mitchell look like a terrific way to spend salary if he plays, especially at $9,700 on DK.

If he doesn’t, Caris LeVert will presumably jump back into the starting lineup. LeVert is playable regardless with Garland out considering he should crack 30 minutes, but he logged 44 (!!!) of a possible 48 minutes with Mitchell out the other night. He may well be the best play on the slate if Mitchell misses another game. Max Strus (0.95 FP/min) looks excellent with his new team thus far, and we shouldn’t overlook that he played nearly 43 minutes with the Cavs’ All-Star backcourt missing on Saturday. I never thought we’d be spending upwards of $6,000 for Max Strus. I also never thought he’d actually still look like a pretty solid play in the $6,000 range, but such is the nature of this team right now.

LeVert got the random mid-morning downgrade to questionable with his own hamstring ailment. Someone order this team a new set of hammies.

Isaac Okoro (0.79 FP/min) is still supplying middling per-minute production, though he’s still reasonably cheap. I’d prefer to take the extra savings that come with Dean Wade ($3,600 DK, $4,400 FD), who should start again with Garland out. He’s even worse than Okoro per minute (0.57), but he did log 37 minutes the other night. On a tiny slate, I’m fine with it.

Evan Mobley is starting at center with Allen out. His usage is solid enough with Garland out (25.6%), but he’s up to 34.7% in a small sample this season with Mitchell also off the floor. His salaries have quickly risen to $8,100 on both sites, but rightfully so. Mobley looks like a priority yet again for me, especially on FanDuel.

San Antonio Spurs

• Pace of Play: 106 (2nd)
• Offensive Efficiency: 100.3 (27th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 112 (22nd)

Notable Injuries

None

The Spurs went into LA and got walloped by the Clippers on Sunday night, and they’ll face another tough test in Phoenix tonight. The Suns aren’t quite as formidable these days, with 2 of their 3 All-Stars out injured, but the home team is still favored by a touchdown in this one. There’s understandably a lot of excitement around the Spurs this season, but the team itself is very much a work in progress.

Victor Wembanyama is the headliner, and justifiably so. San Antonio’s prized rookie is averaging 1.22 FP/min early in the year with a team-best 30.5% usage rate. The issue is we don’t really know what the plan is with his playing time. He was held to 23 minutes in the opener due to foul trouble. In the next game, he played just 31 minutes in the win over the Rockets…including all 5 minutes of the overtime period. The last game was essentially over by halftime, and Wemby logged just 26 minutes.

The OT game seems to be the most telling of all. The Spurs have no reason to rush things and run Wembanyama into the ground as a 19-year-old rookie, so it seems like they’ll be taking a conservative approach, for now. We’ve got Wemby at 28 projected minutes tonight, which isn’t really enough to make him pop at nearly $8,000 on both sites. I’m fine with mixing him into some tournament builds and hoping for the best on a short slate, but the hype could certainly lead to inflated ownership.

Keldon Johnson and Jeremy Sochan are both averaging a steady 0.94 FP/min thus far. Keldon’s usage has predictably come down considerably now that Wembanyama is in the mix, while Sochan has been decent in his new role as the starting point guard. Johnson’s minutes are more bankable, as the next time Sochan cracks 30 minutes in a game this season will be the first. Tre Jones brings natural risk now that he’s coming off the bench, but he’s affordable enough to make the cut as a potential salary saver ($5,000 DK, $5,500 FD).

Devin Vassell seems to have the safest role of any starter from a minutes standpoint. He’s another guy whose usage has been affected by Wembanyama (21%), but he’s a relatively safe option in the midrange. Zach Collins (0.88 FP/min) is unexpectedly pushing Jones for the team lead in assist rate (25.9%), and you can argue his salaries haven’t risen quickly enough to reflect his role. The midrange at center actually has some appealing options tonight, and Collins will likely fall just behind Wendell Carter on my list for the position.

Phoenix Suns

• Pace of Play: 103.9 (3rd)
• Offensive Efficiency: 105.8 (18th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 98.6 (5th)

Notable Injuries

• Bradley Beal – OUT
• Devin Booker – DOUBTFUL
• Damion Lee – OUT

Phoenix is 2-1 to begin the year despite the fact that Bradley Beal has yet to make his team debut. Devin Booker has also missed the past couple of games with a lingering ankle issue that’s expected to keep him out again tonight. So, it’ll once again be the Kevin Durant show when the Suns play host to the visiting Spurs. Phoenix’s 116.75 total is the highest on the slate.

KD’s usage with Booker off the floor this year is pushing 38% in a nearly 80-minute sample. He was only needed for 29 minutes in the team’s blowout of Utah over the weekend, but we’ve seen him push 40 in competitive games early on. I do think even a shorthanded Suns outfit is capable of blowing the doors off of San Antonio, but I won’t be playing for blowouts on a 3-game slate. If I’m paying all the way up for anyone tonight, I’ll give Durant the slight edge over Mitchell, assuming Spida gives it a go.

With Booker and Beal out, we’ll once again see increased workloads for Eric Gordon, Grayson Allen, and Jordan Goodwin. Gordon (0.95 FP/min) and Goodwin (1.00) have been significantly more productive than Allen (0.76), though Grayson did start to see some shots fall in the last game. All 3 are still elite values playable in all formats, it’s that simple. We can add Josh Okogie ($4,200 DK, $5,100 FD) to the list of values, as he played 32 minutes as the fifth starter in each of the Suns’ first couple of games.

The last guy worth a shout is Jusuf Nurkic. The Suns’ center leads his new team in assist (23%) and rebound rate (17.8%), which helps to offset his rather sluggish 18.9% usage. He’s still finding plenty of ways to contribute 1.11 FP/min, and his salaries in the $7,000 range are hardly cumbersome.

Orlando Magic

• Pace of Play: 82.1 (30th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 108.3 (14th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 93.2 (3rd)

Notable Injuries

None

The Magic lost a tight one to the Lakers last night, and tonight they’ll take on the Clippers in the same building. We don’t have word that anyone will sit the second half of the back-to-back, though there’s always the possibility of shenanigans in these scenarios. Orlando is running at the league’s slowest pace early on, and they’re 6.5-point ‘dogs tonight.

Paolo Banchero is off to a weirdly slow start. His usage is down around 20% after he finished as the team leader in that category a season ago (27%). His field goal percentage is in the tank, and he dealt with some first-half foul trouble last night. He surely won’t continue to struggle this way forever, but a matchup on the road against the Clippers isn’t exactly the ideal get-right spot. I do think $7,100 on FanDuel still looks appealing, however.

Markelle Fultz and Jalen Suggs are both off to solid starts, while Cole Anthony continues to generate significant usage (28%) in a backup role. Fultz and Suggs stand out as better values on FD than they are on DK, and those savings come in handy in builds over there. Franz Wagner is steadily productive, though he doesn’t offer the highest ceiling. On this slate, he’s really just a midrange filler play better suited for cash games.

The real highlight here is Wendell Carter. The big man is another guy off to a slow start (0.81 FP/min), but his salaries have come down, particularly on DK ($5,700). We were paying upwards of $6,500 for his services for most of last season, so it’s a matter of time until he comes around.

Los Angeles Clippers

• Pace of Play: 103.3 (4th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 118.3 (3rd)
• Defensive Efficiency: 100.6 (6th)

Notable Injuries

• Ivica Zubac – QUESTIONABLE
• Norman Powell – QUESTIONABLE
• Terance Mann – OUT

The Clippers are 2-1 to begin the year, and they just traded for James Harden overnight. This team has incredible potential if they can manage to stay healthy, which is a rather large “if” given the way things have gone for this franchise over the years. Tonight, they’ll be quite shorthanded for a matchup against a Magic team playing for the second time in as many nights.

This is the front half of a B2B for LA, but Kawhi Leonard and Paul George will play. Both stars have usage rates in the neighborhood of 30% in the early going, and they’re both averaging about 1.35 FP/min. Kawhi is the better value on FanDuel, given the $300 discount, while they’re essentially the same play over on DraftKings. I’m still inclined to side with Leonard, given the long-term numbers, but both are elite upper-range plays in all formats.

Russell Westbrook has slowed down a bit early on (1.06 FP/min), as his usage is down to just 17%. Russ is always playable in tournaments, given his ability to stuff the stat sheet, but he also looks a little overpriced these days. Norman Powell is popping as a stellar value on DK ($4,400) if he suits up, as we have him projected to start this one. If he doesn’t play, Bones Hyland will get solidified as one of the slate’s best cheapies in a similar role. Bones is still viable in tournaments at what should be lower ownership if Powell plays.

Zubac falls behind some of those other midrange centers if he plays, while Mason Plumlee becomes arguably the best value on the slate if Zu gets the night off. With Robert Covington, Nicolas Batum, Marcus Morris, and KJ Martin all gone, the Clippers are suddenly quite short on frontcourt options. Amir Coffey and Kobe Brown may well crack the rotation as a result, but neither looks remotely trustworthy if they don’t start.

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