NBA DFS Playoff Primer: Friday, June 9th

The NBA postseason is finally upon us. We no longer have to worry about players resting, late scratches, and teams trying to lose. For the next couple of months, we get meaningful basketball game after meaningful basketball game. We have decided to combine the Core Plays and the Grind Down into one all-encompassing article for the NBA playoffs. We will break down each slate, sift through the game flow trackers of prior meetings between teams, cover the notable matchups, and provide our favorite NBA DFS targets.

Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic became the first teammates in the history of the NBA to both record 30+ point triple-doubles. It was a masterful performance and the Nuggets are now two wins away from an NBA Championship. Everyone has been quick to count out the Heat throughout their incredible playoff run, but they have been as resilient as any team in sports. Jimmy Butler has continued to stress teamwork and enjoying the moment, while Erik Spoelstra is one of the best coaches in the NBA at making adjustments. This feels like a must-win for Miami, as they can’t afford to head back to Denver down 3-1 in the series.

Game 3: Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat

• Time: 8:30 PM ET
• Series: Nuggets 2 – Heat 1

Series Matchups

• Game 1: MIA 93 – DEN 104

• Game 2: MIA 111 – DEN 108

• Game 3: DEN 109 – MIA 94

Notable Injuries

Tyler Herro – Out

Denver Nuggets Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries

Player	DK	FD	MIN/G	+/-	FP/G	+/-	USG%	+/-	DK/M	+/-	FD/M	+/-		MIN (P)	DK (P)	DK/$	FD (P)	FD/$
Jamal Murray	$11,600	$15,000	32.8	9.7	37.1	16.3	26%	1%	1.13	0.13	1.09	0.06		42	47.0	4.05	44.4	2.96
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	$5,200	$8,000	31.3	2.3	22.1	-8.7	14%	-3%	0.71	-0.31	0.72	-0.32		34	20.1	3.87	20.2	2.53
Michael Porter	$7,000	$9,500	29.0	1.3	29.0	-8.4	22%	-5%	1.00	-0.32	0.96	-0.30		32	27.5	3.92	26.4	2.78
Aaron Gordon	$6,600	$11,500	30.2	5.8	32.2	-2.7	21%	-8%	1.07	-0.25	1.07	-0.25		35	26.3	3.98	26.3	2.28
Nikola Jokic	$15,600	$18,500	33.7	8.3	59.1	10.8	26%	4%	1.75	-0.09	1.67	-0.12		42	65.8	4.22	61.9	3.35
Bruce Brown	$5,000	$9,000	28.5	-3.0	25.0	-6.8	17%	1%	0.88	-0.16	0.89	-0.17		27	21.7	4.34	21.9	2.44
Jeff Green	$1,800	$6,500	19.5	-4.7	13.9	-6.3	17%	-7%	0.71	-0.20	0.71	-0.22		16	7.6	4.24	7.6	1.17
Christian Braun	$2,200	$7,500	15.5	-1.3	10.3	3.9	13%	3%	0.66	0.34	0.68	0.38		13	7.7	3.48	7.7	1.03

The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and the playoffs.

Miami Heat Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries

Player	DK	FD	MIN/G	+/-	FP/G	+/-	USG%	+/-	DK/M	+/-	FD/M	+/-		MIN (P)	DK (P)	DK/$	FD (P)	FD/$
Gabe Vincent	$6,000	$10,500	25.9	7.9	17.9	7.8	17%	2%	0.69	0.07	0.67	0.08		33	20.4	3.40	19.7	1.88
Max Strus	$4,400	$8,500	28.4	-3.6	20.9	-0.7	17%	0%	0.74	0.08	0.70	0.12		28	17.2	3.90	16.3	1.92
Jimmy Butler	$12,200	$14,500	33.4	6.2	42.2	-4.1	25%	1%	1.26	-0.30	1.29	-0.33		41	52.3	4.28	52.9	3.65
Kevin Love	$3,000	$8,000	20.0	-0.9	20.4	-3.2	19%	-1%	1.02	-0.12	0.97	-0.07		18	17.2	5.74	16.5	2.06
Bam Adebayo	$9,400	$14,000	34.6	5.7	40.1	7.5	25%	2%	1.16	0.02	1.16	0.00		41	43.7	4.65	43.5	3.11
Caleb Martin	$6,200	$10,000	29.3	-3.5	20.9	-4.5	14%	-2%	0.71	-0.08	0.72	-0.05		27	20.2	3.26	20.1	2.01
Kyle Lowry	$4,600	$8,500	31.2	-5.0	26.9	-5.4	16%	0%	0.86	-0.04	0.84	-0.06		27	21.7	4.71	20.9	2.46
Duncan Robinson	$3,200	$7,000	16.4	1.1	11.1	-1.0	17%	-1%	0.67	-0.10	0.63	-0.12		17	13.1	4.09	12.1	1.73
Haywood Highsmith	$1,400	$6,500	18.0	-7.3	12.0	-2.5	12%	5%	0.67	0.22	0.68	0.25		2	1.1	0.79	1.1	0.17
Cody Zeller	$1,200	$6,500	14.4	-7.3	13.5	-11.3	18%	-7%	0.94	-0.63	0.94	-0.68		6	5.1	4.24	5.0	0.77

The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and the playoffs.

Game 4 Analysis

Jamal Murray makes basketball look so effortless. Even when opponents force him into difficult shots, he makes them look easy. He has averaged 53 fantasy points per game in this series, which is similar to what he has done throughout this entire playoff run. It will be interesting to see how ownership shakes out between Murray and Jimmy Butler tonight. I will likely have more interest in the lower-owned of the two, so I will be keeping a close eye on pOWN%. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has yet to have a good game in this series and got into early foul trouble in Game 3. I would like to buy low on him eventually, but his salary hasn’t changed much on DraftKings. For tonight, the best path is to use him as a utility play on FanDuel ($8,000).

Michael Porter was great in the series against the Lakers and got off to a nice start in Game 1 against the Heat, but has only scored 13 and 11 fantasy points the last two games. We have to be willing to live with his bad games if we roster him, which is why he’s a much better tournament play than cash game target. Nothing has changed from the start of the series. If MPJ plays well, he will see big minutes and likely be a difference-maker in DFS. I decided to fade Aaron Gordon in Game 3 and it did not go as planned. He had his best outing of the series (35 fantasy points) thanks to grabbing 10 rebounds and dishing out five assists. I don’t have a strong take on Gordon tonight other than he does feel a tad too cheap on DraftKings ($6,600).

The Nuggets’ bench deserves a lot of credit for their play over the last two games. Bruce Brown has been a great sixth man and Jeff Green brings that veteran presence to the team, but the real surprise has been the play of Christian Braun. He scored 17 fantasy points in Game 2 and backed it up with 23 fantasy points in Game 3. If he sees anywhere close to 15 minutes again, he should easily pay off his salary. Green is likely the safer punt between the two, while Brown deserves consideration in all formats. The downside is that if the good MPJ shows up, he will likely cut into the minutes for Braun and Green. You don’t need me to tell you that Nikola Jokic is a great play in DFS, but I’m going to do it anyway. He has topped 60 fantasy points in 11 of his last 12 games and can dominate the game in a number of ways. It’s tough to build lineups with him at Captain given the salary multiplier, but he’s the easy choice at MVP on FanDuel.

Gabe Vincent picked up three first-half fouls in Game 3 and could never seem to get on track. He put up a disappointing 12 fantasy points after scoring 33 fantasy points in each of the first two games. The minutes should still be there, the price point is still reasonable, and he might have lower ownership heading into Game 4. I have a hard time believing that the 11 assists from Max Strus over the last two games are a sign of things to come in Game 4 and the rest of the series. Prior to this, he hasn’t had more than three assists in a game since March 19th. If you want to target him for his shooting, by all means, do so. Personally, I see this as a good opportunity to be under-weight given the way he has racked up fantasy production so far in this series.

Kyle Lowry has had some bad games in the playoffs, but he offers a much higher floor than you might expect. He has topped 20 fantasy points in 13 of his last 16 games. He played 30 minutes in Game 3 (partly due to foul trouble for Vincent) and could have a big role tonight at a discounted price point. I continue to think we will see a big Duncan Robinson game at some point in this series, but time is running out. He has failed to score more than 13 fantasy points in the series’ first three games. Caleb Martin is coming off of his best game of the series, although he’s not playing nearly as many minutes as he did against the Celtics. Haywood Highsmith didn’t crack the rotation in Game 3, so I prefer Cody Zeller if you are looking for a DraftKings punt on Miami’s side.

Jimmy Butler has carried this team through the play-in tournament and through the first three rounds of the playoffs. His production has waned over the last couple of weeks, likely due to fatigue and the fact that opponents are keying in on him defensively. However, we know not to count Butler out. This is the first time all series where I am prioritizing Butler in my builds. I expect him to be aggressive on both ends of the floor. Bam Adebayo is having a great series, averaging 48 fantasy points per game. His salary is slowly going up, but he still projects as one of the best per-dollar plays on the board. He’s been extremely aggressive looking for his own shot and he’s always been good at filling up the stat sheet. I personally think the best minutes for the Heat have been with Kevin Love on the floor. Sure, they haven’t been as good defensively, but he gives them size and someone that can stretch the floor. I think we could see more minutes from Love in Game 4.

It should be a fun game tonight. I don’t think I am betting on the game, but do have a lean to Miami. Good luck!

NBA DFS Targets

Elite Plays – Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon (DK), Christian Braun (DK), Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Kevin Love (DK)

Tournament Targets – Michael Porter, Aaron Gordon (FD), Caleb Martin

Mid-Range Options – Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Bruce Brown, Gabe Vincent, Kyle Lowry, Max Strus, Kevin Love (FD)

DraftKings Punts – Jeff Green, Cody Zeller

Image Credit: Getty Images