NBA DFS Playoff Primer: Monday, June 12th
The NBA postseason is finally upon us. We no longer have to worry about players resting, late scratches, and teams trying to lose. For the next couple of months, we get meaningful basketball game after meaningful basketball game. We have decided to combine the Core Plays and the Grind Down into one all-encompassing article for the NBA playoffs. We will break down each slate, sift through the game flow trackers of prior meetings between teams, cover the notable matchups, and provide our favorite NBA DFS targets.
The Nuggets have looked like the best team in the playoffs and they have looked like the better team in this series. After picking up two road wins in Miami, they are now one game away from their first NBA Championship. Nikola Jokic is the best player in the world right now, Jamal Murray is showing why he deserves to be considered one of the best point guards in the league, and Denver has gotten some great production from their role players. In Game 4, Aaron Gordon and Bruce Brown stole the show. While I would love to have more basketball to sweat, a Nuggets win does feel inevitable. They enter Game 5 as 9-point favorites, so the Heat will need a big upset on the road to extend the series.
If this is the final Playoff Primer of the season, I want to say thanks to everyone that tuned in along the way. Let’s dive into potentially the last NBA slate until the fall.
Game 5: Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets
- Time: 8:30 PM ET
- Series: Heat 1 – Nuggets 3
Series Matchups
- Game 1: MIA 93 – DEN 104
- Game 2: MIA 111 – DEN 108
- Game 3: DEN 109 – MIA 94
- Game 4: DEN 108 – MIA 95
Notable Injuries
Tyler Herro – Out
Miami Heat Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Vincent | $5,600 | $8,500 | 25.9 | 4.1 | 17.9 | 2.3 | 17% | 2% | 0.69 | -0.02 | 0.67 | -0.01 | 28 | 16.8 | 3.00 | 16.3 | 1.92 | |
| Max Strus | $4,000 | $8,000 | 28.4 | -5.1 | 20.9 | -4.1 | 17% | -1% | 0.74 | -0.01 | 0.70 | 0.03 | 26 | 15.4 | 3.86 | 14.7 | 1.84 | |
| Jimmy Butler | $11,800 | $15,000 | 33.4 | 7.6 | 42.2 | -1.7 | 25% | 0% | 1.26 | -0.28 | 1.29 | -0.30 | 42 | 51.8 | 4.39 | 52.5 | 3.50 | |
| Kevin Love | $3,600 | $8,000 | 20.0 | -1.2 | 20.4 | -2.8 | 19% | -2% | 1.02 | -0.08 | 0.97 | -0.06 | 18 | 16.8 | 4.66 | 16.1 | 2.01 | |
| Bam Adebayo | $9,800 | $13,500 | 34.6 | 6.5 | 40.1 | 5.9 | 25% | 2% | 1.16 | -0.04 | 1.16 | -0.07 | 42 | 43.5 | 4.44 | 43.4 | 3.21 | |
| Caleb Martin | $5,800 | $10,000 | 29.3 | -1.7 | 20.9 | -3.6 | 14% | 0% | 0.71 | -0.09 | 0.72 | -0.08 | 28 | 20.4 | 3.51 | 20.3 | 2.03 | |
| Kyle Lowry | $5,000 | $9,500 | 31.2 | -3.3 | 26.9 | -3.9 | 16% | 0% | 0.86 | -0.04 | 0.84 | -0.06 | 28 | 21.8 | 4.36 | 21.1 | 2.22 | |
| Duncan Robinson | $3,000 | $7,500 | 16.4 | 3.0 | 11.1 | 1.8 | 17% | -2% | 0.67 | -0.01 | 0.63 | -0.01 | 20 | 14.9 | 4.96 | 13.8 | 1.84 | |
| Haywood Highsmith | $1,200 | $6,000 | 18.0 | -10.0 | 12.0 | -4.8 | 12% | 5% | 0.67 | 0.23 | 0.68 | 0.27 | 2 | 1.1 | 0.89 | 1.1 | 0.18 | |
| Cody Zeller | $1,000 | $6,500 | 14.4 | -8.0 | 13.5 | -10.4 | 18% | -8% | 0.94 | -0.46 | 0.94 | -0.45 | 6 | 5.0 | 4.98 | 4.9 | 0.76 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and the playoffs.
Denver Nuggets Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | $12,000 | $14,500 | 32.8 | 9.7 | 37.1 | 13.3 | 26% | 0% | 1.13 | 0.06 | 1.09 | 0.01 | 42 | 47.8 | 3.98 | 45.2 | 3.12 | |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | $4,800 | $8,500 | 31.3 | 2.9 | 22.1 | -5.3 | 14% | -4% | 0.71 | -0.21 | 0.72 | -0.20 | 35 | 20.8 | 4.33 | 20.9 | 2.46 | |
| Michael Porter | $6,200 | $9,000 | 29.0 | -0.7 | 29.0 | -9.8 | 22% | -4% | 1.00 | -0.32 | 0.96 | -0.30 | 26 | 22.5 | 3.63 | 21.5 | 2.39 | |
| Aaron Gordon | $7,200 | $12,000 | 30.2 | 7.3 | 32.2 | 1.7 | 21% | -6% | 1.07 | -0.16 | 1.07 | -0.18 | 36 | 27.1 | 3.77 | 27.1 | 2.26 | |
| Nikola Jokic | $16,000 | $19,000 | 33.7 | 7.1 | 59.1 | 7.9 | 26% | 4% | 1.75 | -0.11 | 1.67 | -0.11 | 42 | 67.1 | 4.19 | 63.2 | 3.32 | |
| Bruce Brown | $5,200 | $10,500 | 28.5 | -2.0 | 25.0 | -2.7 | 17% | 1% | 0.88 | -0.04 | 0.89 | -0.04 | 28 | 23.1 | 4.44 | 23.3 | 2.22 | |
| Jeff Green | $1,600 | $6,500 | 19.5 | -4.5 | 13.9 | -6.9 | 17% | -7% | 0.71 | -0.25 | 0.71 | -0.26 | 16 | 7.7 | 4.82 | 7.7 | 1.18 | |
| Christian Braun | $2,800 | $7,000 | 15.5 | -1.2 | 10.3 | 2.3 | 13% | 1% | 0.66 | 0.21 | 0.68 | 0.28 | 15 | 8.9 | 3.16 | 8.9 | 1.28 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and the playoffs.
Game 5 Analysis
The Heat have had their backs against the wall a number of times this postseason and have always found a way to perform under pressure. However, they have to feel disappointed after losing the last two games at home. After a great playoff run, Gabe Vincent has been held to 12 and 3 fantasy points over the last two games. He only played 19 minutes in Game 4 and it wasn’t due to foul trouble. He still has a path to minutes in the 30s, but he will be on a shorter leash given the fact that this is an elimination game. Kyle Lowry has topped 22 fantasy points in four of his last five games and has averaged 31 minutes in the last two games. Given the way this is trending, Lowry is the preferred target over Vincent for Game 5.
Before Game 4, I noted that Max Strus wouldn’t be able to sustain his high assist rate from earlier in the series. This was the reasoning for fading him and it worked wonders, as he only put up 6 fantasy points in 19 minutes of action. Strus is cheap enough on DraftKings that he can be included in your pool, but he’s not a priority. Caleb Martin wasn’t a big factor in the first two games of the series, but has averaged 32 minutes in the last two games and is one of their best two-way players. If he ends up being contrarian, he’ll be one of my biggest overweight stances of the slate.