NBA DFS Playoff Primer: Monday, June 12th

The NBA postseason is finally upon us. We no longer have to worry about players resting, late scratches, and teams trying to lose. For the next couple of months, we get meaningful basketball game after meaningful basketball game. We have decided to combine the Core Plays and the Grind Down into one all-encompassing article for the NBA playoffs. We will break down each slate, sift through the game flow trackers of prior meetings between teams, cover the notable matchups, and provide our favorite NBA DFS targets.

The Nuggets have looked like the best team in the playoffs and they have looked like the better team in this series. After picking up two road wins in Miami, they are now one game away from their first NBA Championship. Nikola Jokic is the best player in the world right now, Jamal Murray is showing why he deserves to be considered one of the best point guards in the league, and Denver has gotten some great production from their role players. In Game 4, Aaron Gordon and Bruce Brown stole the show. While I would love to have more basketball to sweat, a Nuggets win does feel inevitable. They enter Game 5 as 9-point favorites, so the Heat will need a big upset on the road to extend the series.

If this is the final Playoff Primer of the season, I want to say thanks to everyone that tuned in along the way. Let’s dive into potentially the last NBA slate until the fall.

Game 5: Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets

• Time: 8:30 PM ET
• Series: Heat 1 – Nuggets 3

Series Matchups

• Game 1: MIA 93 – DEN 104

• Game 2: MIA 111 – DEN 108

• Game 3: DEN 109 – MIA 94

• Game 4: DEN 108 – MIA 95

Notable Injuries

Tyler Herro – Out

Miami Heat Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries

Player	DK	FD	MIN/G	+/-	FP/G	+/-	USG%	+/-	DK/M	+/-	FD/M	+/-		MIN (P)	DK (P)	DK/$	FD (P)	FD/$
Gabe Vincent	$5,600	$8,500	25.9	4.1	17.9	2.3	17%	2%	0.69	-0.02	0.67	-0.01		28	16.7	2.98	16.2	1.91
Max Strus	$4,000	$8,000	28.4	-5.1	20.9	-4.1	17%	-1%	0.74	-0.01	0.70	0.03		26	15.3	3.83	14.6	1.83
Jimmy Butler	$11,800	$15,000	33.4	7.6	42.2	-1.7	25%	0%	1.26	-0.28	1.29	-0.30		42	51.6	4.37	52.2	3.48
Kevin Love	$3,600	$8,000	20.0	-1.2	20.4	-2.8	19%	-2%	1.02	-0.08	0.97	-0.06		16	14.9	4.13	14.3	1.78
Bam Adebayo	$9,800	$13,500	34.6	6.5	40.1	5.9	25%	2%	1.16	-0.04	1.16	-0.07		42	43.5	4.44	43.2	3.20
Caleb Martin	$5,800	$10,000	29.3	-1.7	20.9	-3.6	14%	0%	0.71	-0.09	0.72	-0.08		25	18.1	3.13	18.0	1.80
Kyle Lowry	$5,000	$9,500	31.2	-3.3	26.9	-3.9	16%	0%	0.86	-0.04	0.84	-0.06		25	19.4	3.87	18.7	1.97
Tyler Herro	$5,400	$11,000	34.9		35.6		25%		1.02		0.97			16	13.8	2.55	12.9	1.17
Duncan Robinson	$3,000	$7,500	16.4	3.0	11.1	1.8	17%	-2%	0.67	-0.01	0.63	-0.01		14	10.4	3.45	9.6	1.28

The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and the playoffs.

Denver Nuggets Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries

Player	DK	FD	MIN/G	+/-	FP/G	+/-	USG%	+/-	DK/M	+/-	FD/M	+/-		MIN (P)	DK (P)	DK/$	FD (P)	FD/$
Jamal Murray	$12,000	$14,500	32.8	9.7	37.1	13.3	26%	0%	1.13	0.06	1.09	0.01		42	48.1	4.01	45.4	3.13
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	$4,800	$8,500	31.3	2.9	22.1	-5.3	14%	-4%	0.71	-0.21	0.72	-0.20		35	20.9	4.35	20.9	2.46
Michael Porter	$6,200	$9,000	29.0	-0.7	29.0	-9.8	22%	-4%	1.00	-0.32	0.96	-0.30		26	22.3	3.60	21.6	2.40
Aaron Gordon	$7,200	$12,000	30.2	7.3	32.2	1.7	21%	-6%	1.07	-0.16	1.07	-0.18		36	27.2	3.78	27.2	2.27
Nikola Jokic	$16,000	$19,000	33.7	7.1	59.1	7.9	26%	4%	1.75	-0.11	1.67	-0.11		42	67.4	4.21	63.4	3.34
Bruce Brown	$5,200	$10,500	28.5	-2.0	25.0	-2.7	17%	1%	0.88	-0.04	0.89	-0.04		28	23.2	4.45	23.4	2.23
Jeff Green	$1,600	$6,500	19.5	-4.5	13.9	-6.9	17%	-7%	0.71	-0.25	0.71	-0.26		16	7.7	4.83	7.7	1.18
Christian Braun	$2,800	$7,000	15.5	-1.2	10.3	2.3	13%	1%	0.66	0.21	0.68	0.28		15	8.9	3.17	9.0	1.28

The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and the playoffs.

Game 5 Analysis

The Heat have had their backs against the wall a number of times this postseason and have always found a way to perform under pressure. However, they have to feel disappointed after losing the last two games at home. After a great playoff run, Gabe Vincent has been held to 12 and 3 fantasy points over the last two games. He only played 19 minutes in Game 4 and it wasn’t due to foul trouble. He still has a path to minutes in the 30s, but he will be on a shorter leash given the fact that this is an elimination game. Kyle Lowry has topped 22 fantasy points in four of his last five games and has averaged 31 minutes in the last two games. Given the way this is trending, Lowry is the preferred target over Vincent for Game 5.

Before Game 4, I noted that Max Strus wouldn’t be able to sustain his high assist rate from earlier in the series. This was the reasoning for fading him and it worked wonders, as he only put up 6 fantasy points in 19 minutes of action. Strus is cheap enough on DraftKings that he can be included in your pool, but he’s not a priority. Caleb Martin wasn’t a big factor in the first two games of the series, but has averaged 32 minutes in the last two games and is one of their best two-way players. If he ends up being contrarian, he’ll be one of my biggest overweight stances of the slate.

Jimmy Butler has played very well in this series, but he has been a little timid offensively (at least compared to the rest of his postseason run). We know he can fill up the stat sheet and he hasn’t had a game where he’s racked up a lot of blocks and steals. With this game being on the road and with it being an elimination game, I expect a good performance from Butler. He’s been low-owned compared to the other superstars all series, and I expect that to be the case again in Game 5. Duncan Robinson is always a wildcard, but he should benefit if Vincent and Strus struggle once again. He’s still only $3,000 on DraftKings.

I continue to think the Heat are at their best in this series with Kevin Love on the floor, but he doesn’t get any run in the second or fourth quarters. He’s still a strong value, but it would be nice to see him get minutes in the mid-20s for a change. Bam Adebayo has topped 40 fantasy points in every game this series and is still underpriced on both sites. You shouldn’t fix something that’s not broken, so we should continue to play Adebayo in all formats. Given the fact that this is an elimination game, we can expect Adebayo to play the entire second half. This means Cody Zeller will only see his first-half stint unless the game turns into a blowout. He’s still a decent lineup filler on DraftKings, but I’m expecting 3-to-5 minutes instead of 6-to-8 minutes for him in this one.

The Nuggets might want to visit Miami in the offseason, but they don’t want to go there for Game 6. They will look to close this out at home in front of their fans. Jamal Murray has topped 40 fantasy points in every game in the series and has averaged over 50 fantasy points in the first four games. He has double-digit assists in every game, which is an impressive accomplishment. He’s been playing minutes in the mid-40s in competitive games, so we should expect that to continue in Game 5. We knew there was a Kentavious Caldwell-Pope game coming and unfortunately it already happened. He put up 27 fantasy points in Game 4. I still prefer him over the likes of Max Strus and Gabe Vincent, but he’s more of a lineup filler than a lineup starter.

Michael Porter has the widest range of outcomes of any player in this game. He put up 38 fantasy points in Game 1 and has been held to 15, 11, and 13 fantasy points over the last three games. The playing time is the big concern, but I still think he has a path to 30+ minutes if he gets off to a nice start. He’ll remain in my tournament player pool. If MPJ continues to struggle, that will mean more minutes for both Bruce Brown and Christian Braun. Brown stole the show in Game 4 (35 fantasy points), while Braun was needed for DFS in Game 2 (17 fantasy points) and Game 3 (23 fantasy points). I like the idea of making a rule in LineupHQ to have a max of one between Porter and Brown and a max of one between Porter and Braun.

Aaron Gordon has overpowered the Heat anytime he has gotten a mismatch. He has gotten so many good looks near the rim and was even starting to make three-pointers in Game 4. He has averaged 34 fantasy points per game in the series and is still underpriced if you trust his recent production. Jeff Green doesn’t offer much upside, but he’s $1,600 on DraftKings and should play minutes in the mid-teens. Last but certainly not least, we have Nikola Jokic. He wasn’t needed as much offensively in Game 4 and he still finished with 57 fantasy points. He has averaged 67 fantasy points in this series and is soon to be the NBA Finals MVP. As is always the case, he’s the easy choice at MVP on FanDuel and he’s a strong play at Captain on DraftKings.

UPDATE — Tyler Herro was not expected to play tonight, but has been upgraded to probable. We haven’t heard whether he’s going to start or be on any kind of minute restriction, but he will certainly cut into the usage and minutes of players like Max Strus, Duncan Robinson, Kyle Lowry, and Caleb Martin. I have updated the player tables above and the DFS targets below.

NBA DFS Targets

Elite Plays – Bam Adebayo, Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon (DK)

Tournament Targets – Jimmy Butler, Aaron Gordon (FD), Michael Porter

Mid-Range Options – Kevin Love (DK), Caleb Martin, Kyle Lowry, Max Strus (MME), Bruce Brown, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

DraftKings Punts – Cody Zeller (DK), Jeff Green (DK), Christian Braun (DK)

Image Credit: Getty Images