NBA DFS Playoff Primer: Monday, May 8
The NBA postseason is finally upon us. We no longer have to worry about players resting, late scratches, and teams trying to lose. For the next couple of months, we get meaningful basketball game after meaningful basketball game. We have decided to combine the Core Plays and the Grind Down into one all-encompassing article for the NBA playoffs. We will break down each slate, sift through the game flow trackers of prior meetings between teams, cover the notable matchups, and provide our favorite NBA DFS targets.
I love playoff basketball. I know the entirety of the postseason lasts nearly three months, but I never get sick of watching meaningful basketball games. We had two gems yesterday, as the Sixers and Suns were both able to even up their respective series at two games apiece. The Sixers let the Celtics back in the game in the fourth quarter, but got a huge shot from James Harden in overtime to secure the victory. The Suns and Nuggets were in a close battle all game, but eventually Devin Booker and Kevin Durant were able to pull away from the beautiful skillset of Nikola Jokic. By the way, how about that flop from the Suns owner? I doubt the league will look to suspend Jokic for Game 5, but you never know.
We have two more solid games to break down this evening, so let’s dive right into the slate.
Game 4: New York Knicks at Miami Heat
- Time: 7:30 PM ET
- Series: Knicks 1 – Heat 2
Previous Matchups
- Game 1: Heat 108 – Knicks 101
- Game 2: Heat 105 – Knicks 111
- Game 3: Knicks 86 – Heat 105
Notable Injuries
Immanuel Quickley – Doubtful
Tyler Herro – Out
Jimmy Butler – Questionable
Caleb Martin – Questionable
New York Knicks Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Brunson | $8,500 | $8,700 | 35.0 | 3.2 | 39.9 | 1.5 | 27% | 1% | 1.14 | -0.06 | 1.11 | -0.03 | 38 | 40.3 | 4.74 | 38.8 | 4.46 | |
| Josh Hart | $6,300 | $6,300 | 32.3 | 3.8 | 28.1 | 2.0 | 12% | 2% | 0.87 | -0.04 | 0.87 | -0.06 | 36 | 29.4 | 4.67 | 28.8 | 4.57 | |
| RJ Barrett | $6,800 | $7,200 | 33.9 | 0.1 | 31.1 | 0.3 | 26% | -1% | 0.92 | 0.01 | 0.87 | 0.02 | 34 | 29.2 | 4.29 | 27.7 | 3.84 | |
| Julius Randle | $8,000 | $8,400 | 35.5 | -4.3 | 46.3 | -14.0 | 29% | -1% | 1.31 | -0.27 | 1.23 | -0.27 | 38 | 43.3 | 5.42 | 40.3 | 4.80 | |
| Mitchell Robinson | $5,100 | $5,700 | 26.9 | -0.7 | 25.9 | -1.9 | 10% | 0% | 0.96 | -0.05 | 1.04 | -0.06 | 26 | 23.2 | 4.54 | 24.3 | 4.26 | |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | $3,500 | $4,200 | 19.9 | 0.7 | 17.4 | -1.8 | 11% | -3% | 0.87 | -0.12 | 0.92 | -0.09 | 20 | 15.2 | 4.33 | 15.9 | 3.79 | |
| Quentin Grimes | $4,200 | $4,200 | 29.9 | -9.9 | 21.3 | -10.7 | 14% | -3% | 0.71 | -0.18 | 0.69 | -0.13 | 28 | 16.4 | 3.89 | 16.0 | 3.81 | |
| Obi Toppin | $4,000 | $4,000 | 15.7 | 2.4 | 13.8 | 3.0 | 19% | 1% | 0.88 | 0.05 | 0.85 | 0.09 | 10 | 8.6 | 2.14 | 8.3 | 2.07 | |
| Miles McBride | $3,000 | $3,500 | 11.9 | -9.4 | 7.7 | -6.5 | 14% | -8% | 0.64 | -0.16 | 0.66 | -0.22 | 10 | 5.4 | 1.79 | 5.4 | 1.55 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and this series.
Miami Heat Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Vincent | $5,200 | $5,800 | 25.9 | 4.9 | 17.9 | 6.8 | 17% | 4% | 0.69 | 0.11 | 0.67 | 0.08 | 34 | 25.6 | 4.93 | 24.2 | 4.18 | |
| Max Strus | $4,600 | $4,500 | 28.4 | -0.1 | 20.9 | -3.5 | 17% | -5% | 0.74 | -0.12 | 0.70 | -0.09 | 28 | 16.7 | 3.63 | 15.8 | 3.52 | |
| Jimmy Butler | $9,500 | $10,100 | 33.4 | 4.5 | 42.2 | 11.3 | 25% | 7% | 1.26 | 0.15 | 1.29 | 0.12 | 38 | 48.0 | 5.05 | 48.3 | 4.78 | |
| Kevin Love | $4,800 | $4,800 | 20.0 | 1.4 | 20.4 | 3.2 | 19% | -2% | 1.02 | 0.08 | 0.97 | 0.11 | 20 | 18.5 | 3.85 | 17.6 | 3.67 | |
| Bam Adebayo | $7,700 | $7,700 | 34.6 | -1.0 | 40.1 | -3.1 | 25% | -1% | 1.16 | -0.06 | 1.16 | -0.08 | 36 | 39.9 | 5.18 | 39.9 | 5.18 | |
| Kyle Lowry | $5,300 | $5,500 | 31.2 | -7.2 | 26.9 | -4.3 | 16% | 3% | 0.86 | 0.08 | 0.84 | 0.11 | 28 | 23.7 | 4.46 | 22.4 | 4.08 | |
| Caleb Martin | $4,500 | $5,600 | 29.3 | -1.2 | 20.9 | 2.1 | 14% | 0% | 0.71 | 0.11 | 0.72 | 0.08 | 26 | 17.4 | 3.86 | 17.4 | 3.10 | |
| Cody Zeller | $3,200 | $3,700 | 14.4 | -5.1 | 13.5 | -6.0 | 18% | -4% | 0.94 | -0.13 | 0.94 | -0.14 | 8 | 7.1 | 2.21 | 7.0 | 1.89 | |
| Duncan Robinson | $3,700 | $3,800 | 16.4 | 1.9 | 11.1 | 2.3 | 17% | -1% | 0.67 | 0.05 | 0.63 | 0.02 | 14 | 9.2 | 2.49 | 8.6 | 2.25 | |
| Haywood Highsmith | $3,100 | $3,700 | 18.0 | -8.6 | 12.0 | -3.7 | 12% | 0% | 0.67 | 0.21 | 0.68 | 0.26 | 8 | 4.9 | 1.57 | 4.7 | 1.27 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and this series.
Game Analysis
The Knicks are honestly fortunate to find themselves down 2-1 entering the fourth game of the series. They were outplayed in Game 1 at home, they nearly lost Game 2 without Jimmy Butler, and then they were blown out in Game 3. The Heat have shot the ball better, they have committed fewer turnovers, and they’ve had a much higher assist rate. The only stat category that the Knicks are really leading in this series is rebounding and it’s not by much. They’ll look to bounce-back and even the series up at two games apiece. Tonight’s contest features a 4.5-point spread and a 208.5-point total.
The one positive that I do see for the Knicks is how well they played on the road this season. They finished with a 24-17 record on the road during the regular season, which was actually better than their record at home. With Immanuel Quickley listed as doubtful for tonight’s game, we should see extended run for Jalen Brunson. He’s been terrific in the playoffs and has averaged 41 fantasy points per game in this series. If he ends up playing 40+ minutes, he could end up being one of the top spends on the slate. It will be interesting to see where his ownership lands with so many big names to choose from tonight.