NBA DFS Playoff Primer: Sunday, June 4th

The NBA postseason is finally upon us. We no longer have to worry about players resting, late scratches, and teams trying to lose. For the next couple of months, we get meaningful basketball game after meaningful basketball game. We have decided to combine the Core Plays and the Grind Down into one all-encompassing article for the NBA playoffs. We will break down each slate, sift through the game flow trackers of prior meetings between teams, cover the notable matchups, and provide our favorite NBA DFS targets.

Happy Sunday! The Nuggets coasted past the Heat in Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Thursday. Tonight, we’ll see what kind of adjustments Erik Spoelstra and co. have in store for Game 2. Not only is Denver a massive favorite to win the series, they’re a huge favorite to take a 2-0 series lead. The Nuggets come in at -9.5 in tonight’s clash after winning the first one by 11 points. The final score in that game was a bit misleading, as the Nuggets led comfortably throughout.

The prize pools for tonight’s slate are impressive around the industry, so let’s dive right in.

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Game 2: Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets

Previous Matchups

Notable Injuries

Caleb Martin (Questionable)
Tyler Herro (Out)
Cody Zeller (Questionable)
Victor Oladipo (Out)

Miami Heat Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries

Player DK FD MIN/G +/- FP/G +/- USG% +/- DK/M +/- FD/M +/- MIN (P) DK (P) DK/$ FD (P) FD/$
Gabe Vincent $5,800 $8,500 25.9 5.3 17.9 5.6 17% 2% 0.69 0.06 0.67 0.05 31 19.6 3.37 18.9 2.22
Max Strus $4,800 $7,000 28.4 0.6 20.9 -2.9 17% -4% 0.74 -0.11 0.70 -0.10 29 18.0 3.74 17.0 2.43
Jimmy Butler $13,400 $16,000 33.4 5.9 42.2 8.9 25% 4% 1.26 0.04 1.29 0.03 43 56.2 4.19 56.5 3.53
Caleb Martin $7,400 $12,000 29.3 1.4 20.9 5.9 14% 2% 0.71 0.16 0.72 0.13 40 29.9 4.04 29.5 2.46
Bam Adebayo $9,200 $13,000 34.6 1.0 40.1 -3.5 25% -3% 1.16 -0.13 1.16 -0.15 43 47.9 5.20 47.3 3.64
Kyle Lowry $5,200 $8,000 31.2 -6.0 26.9 -4.0 16% 1% 0.86 0.05 0.84 0.08 25 20.6 3.95 19.8 2.48
Duncan Robinson $4,200 $7,000 16.4 1.6 11.1 4.5 17% 3% 0.67 0.19 0.63 0.18 19 15.3 3.65 14.2 2.02
Haywood Highsmith $1,400 $6,500 18.0 -8.3 12.0 -4.7 12% -1% 0.67 0.08 0.68 0.11 8 4.5 3.18 4.4 0.68
Kevin Love $2,600 $6,500 20.0 -2.0 20.4 -2.2 19% -2% 1.02 -0.01 0.97 0.01 1 0.9 0.36 0.9 0.14
Cody Zeller $1,200 $6,000 14.4 -5.2 13.5 -6.7 18% -3% 0.94 -0.19 0.94 -0.20 1 0.9 0.75 0.9 0.15

The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and the playoffs.

Denver Nuggets Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries

Player DK FD MIN/G +/- FP/G +/- USG% +/- DK/M +/- FD/M +/- MIN (P) DK (P) DK/$ FD (P) FD/$
Jamal Murray $10,800 $15,500 32.8 6.3 37.1 11.2 26% 2% 1.13 0.10 1.09 0.13 40 46.3 4.29 43.8 2.83
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $5,600 $7,500 31.3 2.0 22.1 0.2 14% -1% 0.71 -0.04 0.72 -0.04 34 20.4 3.65 20.5 2.73
Michael Porter $7,600 $12,500 29.0 4.7 29.0 2.7 22% -6% 1.00 -0.06 0.96 -0.05 36 31.8 4.19 30.5 2.44
Aaron Gordon $6,600 $10,000 30.2 5.4 32.2 -6.2 21% -5% 1.07 -0.34 1.07 -0.34 36 27.3 4.14 27.4 2.74
Nikola Jokic $14,000 $17,500 33.7 5.2 59.1 9.0 26% 4% 1.75 0.00 1.67 -0.01 40 67.7 4.83 63.6 3.64
Bruce Brown $6,200 $9,500 28.5 -2.0 25.0 -2.0 17% 1% 0.88 -0.01 0.89 0.00 28 23.8 3.83 24.0 2.52
Jeff Green $2,200 $6,500 19.5 -0.9 13.9 -5.0 17% -6% 0.71 -0.23 0.71 -0.21 20 9.7 4.43 9.7 1.49
Christian Braun $1,000 $6,000 15.5 -3.7 10.3 -3.9 13% -3% 0.66 -0.13 0.68 -0.12 6 3.5 3.47 3.5 0.58

The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and the playoffs.

Game 2 Analysis

The Heat have been red-hot from beyond the 3-point line throughout the playoffs, but they suddenly went cold in Game 1. Miami shot just 33.3% from deep, with 5 of their 13 makes coming from Gabe Vincent. Max Strus and Duncan Robinson – arguably the Heat’s most lethal marksmen – combined to make 1 of their 14 attempts from beyond the long line. Robinson (0.87 FP/min) has been a lot more productive per-minute than Strus (0.65) in the playoffs, but neither is guaranteed heavy minutes if they’re not hitting shots. I do think Robinson is still a decent value on FanDuel ($6,500) but I view Strus as more of a lineup filler on both sites.

Vincent and Kyle Lowry were rare bright spots for Miami in Game 1. The Heat are already giving up plenty of size in this matchup, but we did see about 11 minutes of overlap between the point guards the other night. Lowry feels like a bit of a chase given his volatile minutes throughout the playoffs, while Vincent is the far safer commodity at this point. I think they’re still both very much in play here in all formats, especially if the overlap means they won’t necessarily be negatively correlated anymore. I could see the Heat dusting off Kevin Love after he drew a DNP-CD in Game 1, but I’d only throw that dart in large-field tournaments. It’s hard to have a ton of faith in a guy with a floor of zero minutes.

Caleb Martin is questionable with an illness, while there is some talk that Tyler Herro could make his return for this game. He’s still officially listed as out, but keep an eye on Twitter before tipoff. Herro suiting up could change things considerably, especially for guys like Vincent and Lowry. That said, his role is quite questionable even if he plays considering we haven’t seen him since Game 1 of Miami’s first-round series against Milwaukee. The Martin news looms large, of course. Love could be the choice to replace him in the first five if he sits, but we have Martin projected for 34 minutes if he’s good to go. He’s been the Heat’s most consistent offensive player in the postseason, though he did struggle mightily in Game 1. Haywood Highsmith ($3,400 DK, $7,000 FD) is another value that could see an uptick in playing time if Martin is a no-go. Cody Zeller is also questionable, but could play around 10 minutes off the bench if he’s good to go. Zeller is a passable flier punt on DK ($1,200).

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About the Author

tcsmith031
Taylor Smith (tcsmith031)

Based in Southern California, Taylor Smith (aka tcsmith031) has been working for RotoGrinders since 2018 in a number of different capacities. In addition to contributing written content for NBA, MLB, and NFL, Taylor is also a member of the projections/alerts team and makes regular appearances as an analyst on NBA Crunch Time. Follow Taylor on Twitter – @TayeBojangles