NBA DFS Playoff Primer: Thursday, June 1st
The NBA postseason is finally upon us. We no longer have to worry about players resting, late scratches, and teams trying to lose. For the next couple of months, we get meaningful basketball game after meaningful basketball game. We have decided to combine the Core Plays and the Grind Down into one all-encompassing article for the NBA playoffs. We will break down each slate, sift through the game flow trackers of prior meetings between teams, cover the notable matchups, and provide our favorite NBA DFS targets.
The NBA Finals are here!
While the betting market isn’t giving the Heat much of a chance in the series, they were in the exact same situation against the Bucks and Celtics and we all know how each of those series ended. As it stands before Game 1, the Nuggets are in the -400 range to win the series and value aside, it’s hard to pick against Denver. They coasted to the NBA Finals after fairly easy wins against the Wolves, Suns, and Lakers. Their path was slightly easier than the one for the Heat, but they’ve made quick work of each opponent put in front of them. I would argue that the Heat have the edge in terms of coaching, but the Nuggets have the edge everywhere else. Jimmy Butler has been the best player on the floor in every series the Heat have played in so far, but it will take a heroic performance to be better than Nikola Jokic for an entire series.
We only have up to seven more NBA slates before the season ends. Let’s make the most of them.
Game 1: Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets
- Time: 8:30 PM ET
- Series: Heat 0 – Nuggets 0
Regular Season Matchups
- MIA 119 at DEN 124 (12/30/22)
- DEN 112 at MIA 108 (2/13/23)
Notable Injuries
Tyler Herro – Out
Miami Heat Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Vincent | $5,800 | $8,500 | 25.9 | 5.3 | 17.9 | 5.6 | 17% | 2% | 0.69 | 0.06 | 0.67 | 0.05 | 31 | 19.6 | 3.37 | 18.9 | 2.22 | |
| Max Strus | $4,800 | $7,000 | 28.4 | 0.6 | 20.9 | -2.9 | 17% | -4% | 0.74 | -0.11 | 0.70 | -0.10 | 29 | 18.0 | 3.74 | 17.0 | 2.43 | |
| Jimmy Butler | $13,400 | $16,000 | 33.4 | 5.9 | 42.2 | 8.9 | 25% | 4% | 1.26 | 0.04 | 1.29 | 0.03 | 43 | 56.2 | 4.19 | 56.5 | 3.53 | |
| Caleb Martin | $7,400 | $12,000 | 29.3 | 1.4 | 20.9 | 5.9 | 14% | 2% | 0.71 | 0.16 | 0.72 | 0.13 | 40 | 29.9 | 4.04 | 29.5 | 2.46 | |
| Bam Adebayo | $9,200 | $13,000 | 34.6 | 1.0 | 40.1 | -3.5 | 25% | -3% | 1.16 | -0.13 | 1.16 | -0.15 | 43 | 47.9 | 5.20 | 47.3 | 3.64 | |
| Kyle Lowry | $5,200 | $8,000 | 31.2 | -6.0 | 26.9 | -4.0 | 16% | 1% | 0.86 | 0.05 | 0.84 | 0.08 | 25 | 20.6 | 3.95 | 19.8 | 2.48 | |
| Duncan Robinson | $4,200 | $7,000 | 16.4 | 1.6 | 11.1 | 4.5 | 17% | 3% | 0.67 | 0.19 | 0.63 | 0.18 | 19 | 15.3 | 3.65 | 14.2 | 2.02 | |
| Haywood Highsmith | $1,400 | $6,500 | 18.0 | -8.3 | 12.0 | -4.7 | 12% | -1% | 0.67 | 0.08 | 0.68 | 0.11 | 8 | 4.5 | 3.18 | 4.4 | 0.68 | |
| Kevin Love | $2,600 | $6,500 | 20.0 | -2.0 | 20.4 | -2.2 | 19% | -2% | 1.02 | -0.01 | 0.97 | 0.01 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.36 | 0.9 | 0.14 | |
| Cody Zeller | $1,200 | $6,000 | 14.4 | -5.2 | 13.5 | -6.7 | 18% | -3% | 0.94 | -0.19 | 0.94 | -0.20 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.75 | 0.9 | 0.15 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and the playoffs.
Denver Nuggets Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | $10,800 | $15,500 | 32.8 | 6.3 | 37.1 | 11.2 | 26% | 2% | 1.13 | 0.10 | 1.09 | 0.13 | 40 | 46.3 | 4.29 | 43.8 | 2.83 | |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | $5,600 | $7,500 | 31.3 | 2.0 | 22.1 | 0.2 | 14% | -1% | 0.71 | -0.04 | 0.72 | -0.04 | 34 | 20.4 | 3.65 | 20.5 | 2.73 | |
| Michael Porter | $7,600 | $12,500 | 29.0 | 4.7 | 29.0 | 2.7 | 22% | -6% | 1.00 | -0.06 | 0.96 | -0.05 | 36 | 31.8 | 4.19 | 30.5 | 2.44 | |
| Aaron Gordon | $6,600 | $10,000 | 30.2 | 5.4 | 32.2 | -6.2 | 21% | -5% | 1.07 | -0.34 | 1.07 | -0.34 | 36 | 27.3 | 4.14 | 27.4 | 2.74 | |
| Nikola Jokic | $14,000 | $17,500 | 33.7 | 5.2 | 59.1 | 9.0 | 26% | 4% | 1.75 | 0.00 | 1.67 | -0.01 | 40 | 67.7 | 4.83 | 63.6 | 3.64 | |
| Bruce Brown | $6,200 | $9,500 | 28.5 | -2.0 | 25.0 | -2.0 | 17% | 1% | 0.88 | -0.01 | 0.89 | 0.00 | 28 | 23.8 | 3.83 | 24.0 | 2.52 | |
| Jeff Green | $2,200 | $6,500 | 19.5 | -0.9 | 13.9 | -5.0 | 17% | -6% | 0.71 | -0.23 | 0.71 | -0.21 | 20 | 9.7 | 4.43 | 9.7 | 1.49 | |
| Christian Braun | $1,000 | $6,000 | 15.5 | -3.7 | 10.3 | -3.9 | 13% | -3% | 0.66 | -0.13 | 0.68 | -0.12 | 6 | 3.5 | 3.47 | 3.5 | 0.58 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and the playoffs.
Game 1 Analysis
Even though the Heat are known for their defense, their offense has been the star of the show in the playoffs. They have the third best offensive rating of all of the teams that made the playoffs and they lead everyone in three-point percentage (39%). This strength could be negated a bit by the Nuggets, who held their opponents to the second lowest three-point percentage (34%) during the regular season. On Denver’s side, they lead all playoff teams in offensive rating, rebounding percentage, and assist-to-turnover rate.
Gabe Vincent has been a pest on defense and has had a number of games where he’s helped carry the load offensively. He has averaged 31 minutes and 24 fantasy points per game in the playoffs and should have a big role in this series. He continues to be a strong option at utility. Max Strus struggled in the series against the Celtics, but his lack of defense may not hurt as much in this series. He’ll likely defend Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who doesn’t look to create his own shot very often. However, the Nuggets are one of the best teams at defending the three-point line, so Strus is far from a priority.